[Muckingfess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joelcolorado', 'A')Re they really hungry or just too fat.
HMMMM
Diabetes is set to strip our economy and most of it due to lifestyle. A new case every 4 seconds.
1 in 4 have it and most dont know it YET.

EAT EAT EAT...buffets,,,,all yu can pork in..
cant wait to see those whales riding scooters

[jdmartin]

I'm glad to see it as well. I think there's some significant benefits to peak oil:

- reduction of trade globalization
- revitalization of local economies
- reduction of suburbanization

ETC. So while there's a chance we may be fighting off the zombie hordes, there's also a chance we might just discover a better way to live. And that's good for all of us!

<<<I've got my optimistic face on today

[AvalancheChief]

Hey, I'm the David Obelcz in the New York Times and Today Show story.

During my interview with NBC I spoke actually for about 20 minutes and with the New York Times close to an hour, so there is a lot (I wasn't even quoted in the New York Times) that didn't end up in the stories, so for a bit more of the story behind the story.

I traded in my Chevy Avalanche in April of 2005, when gasoline where I live was around $2.25 a gallon and a tank of gas (average fill up of 28 gallons, no one runs to "empty") cost $63. I felt strongly that the price of gasoline would only continue to rise, and a number of life style changes including where I work, how far I drove to work, and how I use a vehicle day to day could simply no longer justify driving three tons of Mexican assembled sheet metal. It wasn't I "couldn't" afford my Avalanche, it was a case of watching $4000 to $5000 a year in disposable income being disposed of into my gas tank.

I went through an extensive examination in my buying decision. I weighed depreciation, interest rates, insurance rates, and had some strict requirements in my decisions:

1) Must seat five, comfortably
2) Must get a minimum of 20/30 MPG
3) Must have a trunk capable of holding a weekend worth of backpacking gear for four, or a weeks worth of luggage, and with four
4) Must have an established record of reliability from JD Power/Consumer Reports, etc.
5) Must not cost any more to insure than my Avalanche
6) Must not create a car payment larger than my Avalanche
7) Must not have specialized needs like an odd tire size, premium gas, or special care
Must be front wheel drive or all-wheel drive for snow and wet weather performance
9) Must be fun to drive

I looked at a number of vehicles, Pontiac Vibe/Toyota Matrix - too small. Mazda3, loved it but again, too small (I'm 6'1" tall, anyone sitting behind the driver seat would have had to be an amputee). Toyota Camry, incredibly boring to drive, toaster on wheels, etc. etc.

It boiled down to a Mazda6 4-cylinder 5-door 5-speed (a barrel of monkeys to drive, Mazda knows how to make 4-cylinder engines) and a Pontiac Grand Prix GT (base 6-cylinder). In the end the Pontiac Grand Prix won due to a much lower insurance rate (don't understand that to this day), a better interest rate lowering the payment, and more content in the vehicle.

I've had the car for close to 3-1/2 years now and have about 67,000 miles on it and it has been touble free (one TSB and one recall item in 3-1/2 years, both very minor).

HOWEVER, gasoline now costs around $4.40 a gallon where I live today. My Grand Prix has a 17 gallon tank, so a typical fill up is right around 15 gallons, so an average fill up for me today is -- $66. Yup, the dollar for dollar savings is gone, although I am saving as noted, about $4,000 a year versus filling up the Avalanche (that is back of the napkin math, it may be even more if I dove into the numbers)

The part of the story that ended up on the cutting room floor is, it is still darn expensive to fill up a car.

As for me I've taken further steps to reduce my driving. I'm hypermiling (not to the extreme), I telecommute two days a week thanks to my awesome employer, I take public transportation one day a week, and I now ride a bike for short errands within 3 to 5 mile radius from my house (say to pick up milk at the grocery store or rent a video). In 2005 my average yearly mileage was around 24K to 26K, I've reduced that now to 10K to 12K, but basically I'm at the end of my rope for economizing. I can't not drive and I can't move closer to work due to the high cost of housing.

I'm waiting for the next generation of electric cars and hybrids coming in 2010 ~ 2011, and if the Chevrolet Volt delivers all that it promises, there will be one in my driveway in the future.

$100 tanks of gas are a reality though, and you could be a family with four kids who owns a 4-cylinder minivan and still shelling out $100 to top off the tank, so this isn't a pain for just the "evil" SUV and truck owners.

There is no one really saying today that the truck/SUV as a personal vehicle is alive and well. Even General Motors declared the category dead back in late May or early June. But either all of the auto industry is REALLY stupid, or this simply caught everyone by surprise.

Case in point, Toyota spent billions of dollars developing larger, gas guzzling Toyota Tundra and Toyota Sequoia trucks and SUVs to compete with the American manufacturers. They spent billions of dollars building a truck factory in Texas and expanding an engine factory in Alabama. They flipped the switch on all of this to "on" in March of 2007. Yes, 2007. Toyota. Last month Toyota's sales suffered a steeper decline than General Motors, and their truck business was off 39%. Now you can call Detroit stupid, but Toyotas investments here then would have to be equally stupid. Over the last three to five years Toyota spent more on large truck and SUV infrastructure than hybrids. As of June of 2008, first half hybrid sales for Toyota, including Lexus division are at 145,000 units, which projects out to 290,000 annual. They can't possibly sell more than 290,000 annually because they're building them as fast as they can sell them. Despite this from 2004 to 2007 Toyota spent billions creating capacity to build an even larger number of trucks and SUVs in the process. I will say this, I think Honda is by far the greenest car company in North America, and Toyota has done an amazing job of green washing and getting massive amounts of positive PR on the 160K Priuses they sell a year (give or take). To put it another way, the 160K Prius models sold over an entire year, represents just a single bad month at Toyota for all United States sales.

Another point to consider is the catering to American desire to have bigger vehicles is not just a North American car manufacturer trend. The redesigned Honda Accord, which most would perceive is an efficient vehicle is only sold in the United States as the Honda Accord, and in 2008, it bloated out to a fullsize vehicle. The rest of the world gets the Acura TSX sold to them badged as a Honda Accord, a much smaller car in comparison. American buyers as a whole like bigger cars and trucks and that is going to require a fundamental shift that will take decades to make happen with 247 million registered vehicles in America. EVERYONE who builds cars accomodates this American desire, whether they are headquartered in North America, Europe or Asia. It is going to take a long time for that to change.

For the record I believe in peak oil and I believe we are here, but I also have a realistic view on how/what it will take to meet that challenge. I have a rather dim view on how things will look in 10 to 20 years, and I believe we are at the beginning of far more than an oil shock.

Thanks for reading this.

[rider]

A few years down the road driving a car might not matter as much as what you can find at the local supermarket and being able to afford it.

On the flip side how far you can walk or cycle could become of vital importance. I've enjoyed reading your post anyway and welcome to the forum.

[AvalancheChief]

Which is one of the main reasons why I spent $185 on bike improvements earlier this year and took up riding in earnest again. During the winter months here it will suck, not sure how to deal with that issue, but where there is a will, there is a way.

[ROCKMAN]

Interesting update Hogan. We should start seeing more "accidental" fires" at sea too. My brother use to dive for the Coast Guard years ago usually investigating such accidents. First thing he would do is look for the electronics. Even though someone was trying to ditch a $500,000 boat loan invaribly they would take off $500 of electronics just before the "accidental fire".

The courts would readily accept the missing gear as proof of intentional destruction. Wonder if my brother kept his commercial dive certificate up to date?

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', '[')b]For Sale: Cheap heating oil -- from my basement

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')U.S. homeowners scared of paying through the roof for heating oil this winter are cruising online classified sites for deals on unwanted fuel -- and finding them.

"I have an old pickup truck and I stock it with 50-gallon drums, and I have an oil transfer pump," said Bob Difiore, a mechanic who lives on Long Island, outside New York City.

"I pull into people's driveways and lower a hose through a window or other access points and I start pumping it into the drums."

The deals are possible because many homeowners in the Northeast are switching from heating oil to cheaper natural gas or other alternative fuels, leaving them with tanks full of unused oil. And those still using heating oil are eager to snap it up at a discount as the oil market skyrockets.

"I just went on Craigslist one day and I saw someone selling heating oil. So I put an ad in there saying I was buying," said Howard Urvine, a real estate agent in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

Homeowners can shave $3 a gallon off the price of fuel now selling for closer to $4.50 a gallon through offers placed on Web sites like Craigslist.org for cities in the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil consuming region.

[patience]

Diesel fuel could work in furnaces, I think.

[MarkJ]

You can burn heating oil, diesel or kerosene in oil fired furnaces, boilers and hot water heaters.


I've heated my homes for nearly free for many years with salvaged heating oil and kerosene from tank changeouts, fuel pumpouts/changeouts, underground tank removal and oil-to-gas conversions.

DIY types don't want to get caught transporting fuel in barrels, or heating oil tanks.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', '[')b]Pricey gas: Fewer cops, more potholes

In what seems to be a perverse reaction to high gas prices, some cities are cutting back on public transit - at a time when their citizens need it most.

Due to skyrocketing fuel costs local governments are being forced to trim all sorts of services - not only busses - but police departments and road repair crews too.
(...)

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (AP) -- Restaurant chains Bennigan's and Steak & Ale have filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection and will shut their doors.

The companies filed for bankruptcy protection in the Eastern District of Texas. Their parent company - privately held Metromedia Restaurant Group - is based in Plano, Texas.

In a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing, a company seeks to liquidate its assets and shut down.