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Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 19:14:20

As far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.

Most likely the investment advisor sitting in a cube farm is a young guy who has not proven anything yet that I would consider noteworthy. Before the current young guy the company had me assigned to an older guy, by older I would say he was early 60's. From talking to him I got the impression I had more money than he did even though I was 20 years younger. Now, I've always heard that you can do well as far as income selling financial products, much better than I do teaching at a university. Given that, I wouldn't take advice from him either because I felt that he should have been much richer than me.

I guess if I'm going to take advice from someone they have to be able to "show me the money" as in they've made it for themselves. Now, if they really want to impress me, they can take me to the marina, and in a play on the old joke, they can show me the customer's yachts.

TF
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 21:55:25

Oil is going to turn around as early as tommorow. Mid-month in July the US will experience a signficant drop in oil imports due shipment declines from Nigeria, Mexico, and yes, even Saudi Arabia.

When it becomes apparent that crude inventories on hand are heading towards low levels, I would not be surprised if we hit a new high for oil about the end of July or early August. However that is not a specific prediction.

Due to US monetary policy, maybe best described by Bernanke today who said - to paraphrase - we face an unusal short term situation that may continue for a long long time.

That means full speed ahead for inflation.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 22:12:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'D')emand destruction will cause the price to fluctuate in the short term, but I don't care about the short term. IMO, the long term trend is up, up and away.


Exactamente
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby misterno » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 22:30:36

Relaxxxx guys, the markets are very nervous that's all

It will come back and even surpass $150 with a little bad news.

Just relax and wait.

That is what I am doing.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 00:21:51

I ...... can't ....... relaxxxxx

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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby cube » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 02:54:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', 'A')s far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.
I have this paranoid theory that those who "truly" know how to invest are in reality ridiculously introverted people who have very few friends and rarely do they ever spend time talking to other people about investing. Basically they are loners. Have you ever noticed that people like Warren Buffet and George Soros do NOT have their own TV show? There's a reason why, they are true investors and they have boring personalities.

"TRUE" Investors are NOT entertainers or sales people.
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You can spend your entire life and never see a "true" investor.
And even if you did you may never know because chances are they have no interest in opening up their mouth and telling you.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby ReducedToZero » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:02:09

Kramer's a funny character I must say
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:15:07

Who's the chick? She looks like a page out of a JCPenney catalog.

I have no faith in anyone who's saying "buy this and you'll make lots of money." There are some folks like The Market Guys and Alexander Elder who are approaching it more from a stand point of teaching you about technical analysis, money management, trader psychology, basically teaching you the skills you need to become a trader. That strikes me as being much more legitimate.

I think there's good information out there. It doesn't come from a place of "here's what to buy." It comes from a place of "here's how to figure out what to buy."
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:18:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'W')ho's the chick? She looks like a page out of a JCPenney catalog.



Suze Orman.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')he is currently the host of "The Suze Orman Show" on CNBC. She has written six consecutive New York Times Best Sellers, and has written, co-produced, and hosted six PBS specials based on her New York Times bestselling books, and is the single most successful fund raiser in the history of public television. Similar programs she hosts on QVC, the leading home shopping network, also place her as the top seller. In 2004 and 2006 Orman won two daytime Emmy Awards in the category of Outstanding Service Show Host for her PBS Specials. Over her television career she has won more Gracie awards (5) than anyone in the 33 year history of these awards. In 2008, she was selected by TIME Magazine as one of the most influential people in the world.



Wikipedia entry
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby cube » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:22:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'W')ho's the chick? She looks like a page out of a JCPenney catalog.
Suze Orman, she has her own TV show.

BTW having a TV show makes me lose respect for someone as an investor. Once a person crosses that line I see them as an entertainer and not an investor.
maybe I'm weird but that's just my opinion.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby ReducedToZero » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 03:24:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', 'A')s far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.
I have this paranoid theory that those who "truly" know how to invest are in reality ridiculously introverted people who have very few friends and rarely do they ever spend time talking to other people about investing. Basically they are loners. Have you ever noticed that people like Warren Buffet and George Soros do NOT have their own TV show? There's a reason why, they are true investors and they have boring personalities.



Despite his FAUX NEWS style media appeal Cramer agrees on a financial collapse...



www.cnbc.com :
In a somewhat solemn moment, Cramer brings up a problem lurking in the market: stocks dropping without a sound. There's plenty of noise about certain companies because someone said this or that, but what of the ones that sink quietly? Lately, there are more of these companies going quietly into the night: banks, brokers, homebuilders -- the trifecta (or "Achilles' heel" per Cramer's label) of the down market. These companies are failing not because of things said, but because of things not said -- none of the right people are saying the right things.

Not all doom and gloom, Cramer offers hope that today's explosive rally continues through tomorrow. But despite the sudden recovery, Cramer fears an imminent financial collapse -- and not a small one, but one on the scale of big money
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 08:40:05

To add to what cube is saying, to me the skilled investor is someone who can filter out a tremendous amount of market and other "noise" and see value and trends that are very subtle.

Trying to be an entertaining talking head or a "people person" sales representative almost guarantees that the person is NOT skilled at filtering noise, since their very existence is a large source of the noise.
:)
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 08:42:58

how low will it go.....as low as it can get until Iran sucessfully tests ballistic missles that can hit Isreal ,parts of Eurpe and any US base in the middle east...like the story that just broke. Buy energy on pull backs. This is your opportunity.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Niagara » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 08:58:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[')img]http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/10/cramer/image/kramer7.jpg[/img]


Jim Cramer and his TV show has absolutely nothing to do with smart investing.

Cramer's a mouthpiece for Goldman Sachs. His show is simply a 'pump-n-dump' scheme to peddle their stock picks and unload into suckers' hands.

Notice too, they often target the young crowd by taking the show to college and university campuses. The show is promoting the stock market as a whole and convincing people to day-trade (or trade frequently). This benefits the Wall Street cronies.

If you insist on making choices based on Cramer, do the opposite of what he says. He's a great contrarian indicator.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Toyota » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 11:31:26

Off course, when the dollar is rising, the oil price falls :)

I think if the feds wanted it, the price will be 70 $ pr gallon, it predict this in 2010, maybe late 2009 :?

Its still cheaper then water :P :-D
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 11:41:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')uze Orman, she has her own TV show.


Ahh. The things you miss not having a TV. :roll:

Ohh well. I guess I'll deal.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 14:23:10

My favorite weekly chart.

Up $0.019 this week.

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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:26:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'I')t's clearly trending down now.
Clear trend? It was over $141 at 14:30 today. I just checked on Nymex. Over $142.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Sun 13 Jul 2008, 13:20:15

LOL...what drop?
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