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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby fletch_961 » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 03:41:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
MPG flat-lined because SUVs came on the market.


http://www.nhtsa.gov/portal/nhtsa_stati ... ummary.pdf

Wrong!

The average passenger car (which doesn't include SUVs) that Americans purchased in 1988 got 28.8 mpg. It only reached that level one more time (1998) until 2001. Suddenly in 2002, American purchases started to change. The average passenger car mpg started to rise. So that in 2007 it was up to 31.3mpg. Hmm...what started to occur in 2002ish? Gas prices started to rise?

Same with light trucks (which includes SUVS)---no improvement from 1988 to 2002. Then a nice jump.

Combining the passenger cars and light trucks.

1987 - 2001

Fuel economy dropped from 26.2 to 24.5mpg. Think cheap oil. A decrease in efficiency despite:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'k')ublikhan wrote:
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?

mQ:
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.



2001 - 2007

Improvement from 24.5 to 26.7mpg with most of that improvement in the last two years. Wonder what it will go up to this year with light truck sales tanking and $4 gas?

You would think with all this efficiency improvement we would see consumption increase anytime now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates indicates that the 2008 gasoline consumption will be lower than the 2007 peak and if oil prices stay at or near their current levels, gasoline consumption will continue to decline in the U.S. in the coming years and may never again reach 2007 levels.


link

It looks to me like jevons paradox has a long way to go to increase fuel consumption per vehicle (or per capita) back up to 1980 levels, but thanks for the chart.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby TonyPrep » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 03:55:56

Mmm, just looking at the EIA data for July, from 1945 to 2008, gasoline products delivered has risen almost continuously. There were a couple of yearly dips before 1978, then a dip in 1979, after which it took about 8 years to get up to the 1978 level. There were another couple of lower years, 1988 and 1989, before starting a continual rise to 2007.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 21:25:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'H')ate to jump in, but SUVs are classified as light trucks. I'm guessing that the increased efficiency in that chart reflects cars only.

If not, then carry on. 8)
Could be, but it looks like all passenger vehicles AFAIK.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 22:12:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', ' ') It looks to me like jevons paradox has a long way to go to increase fuel consumption per vehicle (or per capita) back up to 1980 levels, but thanks for the chart.


The chart shows that as mpg improved, miles driven increased.

Almost a shadow image.

Image

Holding out hope for efficiency gains and conservation is going to reap only short-term results...if that.

Putting something on sale does not reduce it's consumption.

You can believe otherwise. Many foolishly do.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 00:05:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he chart shows that as mpg improved, miles driven increased.

Almost a shadow image.

Image
Only with consistently low prices. Even w/ high prices it still took a year or two for consumption to go from a yoy decrease to a yoy increase.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')olding out hope for efficiency gains and conservation is going to reap only short-term results...if that.
Only in a low price environment. Post peak, we would be in anything but that. Unless of course demand collapsed due to replacement.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')utting something on sale does not reduce it's consumption.
Short term it can, for instance gasoline consumption fell from 1981 to 1982 even though oil and gasoline prices fell a good ~30-40%, and otoh, as we've seen during price increases consumption can also increase. That being said, as long term trends, lower prices tend to increase consumption and vice versa. If we are at or near peak, I doubt we will see much in the way of lower prices that tend to encourage consumption.

To put it another way, according to the modern version of Jevon's Paradox, the rebound effect, increases in consumption from efficiency increases only occur under specific conditions. In fact, in most cases...$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wikipedia', 's')tudies have found that in developed countries the rebound effect is usually small, and that improvements in efficiency usually reduce resource use.
And as a result, increase in efficiency and conservation tend to be effective, just not effective as they could be.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 01:00:18

Back to the topic of this thread:

"Where will the energy come from to build all these wonders of technology in an energy scarce world? It’s almost like going from tugging on a rope to pushing it. Technology is only as good as the energy sources to support it. How will we provide energy for growth and energy for massive mitigation efforts while fighting off declining energy availability?"
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:24:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ack to the topic of this thread:

"Where will the energy come from to build all these wonders of technology in an energy scarce world? It’s almost like going from tugging on a rope to pushing it. Technology is only as good as the energy sources to support it. How will we provide energy for growth and energy for massive mitigation efforts while fighting off declining energy availability?"
An energy scarce world? We use energy from petroleum in personal transportation with a practical efficiency of around 1%. We have no want for energy, and in many cases we are wasting it as fast as is practically possible. For instance, on one hand an efficient EV uses roughtly .25kWh/mile, while the average American passenger vehicle uses about 2.38kWh/mile. In the case of the average Amercian passenger vehicle, out of every 2.38kWh/mile available we would have no energy available after use, otoh, for every 2.38kWh/mile we would have 2.13kWh/mile available, enough to go eight and a half times farther. We have not want for available energy. In fact, if we were to waste it only twice as fast as we currently do, it would be glaringly obvious with ~two ton passenger vehicles seeing the same mileage as ~20-40 ton trucks.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby kublikhan » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 11:06:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
Image
That's not what I see in that chart. I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.

MPG flat-lined because SUV's came on the market.
Which would mean Jevon's paradox had nothing to do with it. It was cheap oil flooding this country.

Not only did I show Jevon's paradox not applying to this country, the worst case example, but you failed to address the other examples I brought up, France and Germany.
Last edited by kublikhan on Tue 08 Jul 2008, 16:04:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 13:54:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Which would mean Jevon's paradox had nothing to do with it. It was cheap oil flooding this country.


A combination of cheaper oil and greater efficiency.

Image
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:03:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ack to the topic of this thread:

"Where will the energy come from to build all these wonders of technology in an energy scarce world? It’s almost like going from tugging on a rope to pushing it. Technology is only as good as the energy sources to support it. How will we provide energy for growth and energy for massive mitigation efforts while fighting off declining energy availability?"
We have not want for available energy. In fact, if we were to waste it only twice as fast as we currently do, it would be glaringly obvious with ~two ton passenger vehicles seeing the same mileage as ~20-40 ton trucks.


So, in your mind, when oil starts it's relentless decline, efficiency gains alone will provide not only the energy to offset decline, but also to allow for normal economic growth, as well as, a massive ramp up of technology to mitigate it?

Depending upon the rate of decline, that translates into efficiency gains on a double-digit scale every year for the foreseeable future.

Not.

Where do you get these notions?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')n energy scarce world? We use energy from petroleum in personal transportation with a practical efficiency of around 1%.
The practical efficiency is 100%, regardless of the theoretical figure. That is, all of the oil burned in the world's billion ICEs, is used up. How do you propose to free up that extra 40%, 60% or 99% of oil used as ICE fuel, for other uses, and do you think it remotely likely?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby kublikhan » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:37:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')PG flat-lined because SUV's came on the market.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Which would mean Jevon's paradox had nothing to do with it. It was cheap oil flooding this country.
A combination of cheaper oil and greater efficiency.
That makes no sense whatsoever. How do you get SUV driving = greater efficiency?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 17:24:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')PG flat-lined because SUV's came on the market.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Which would mean Jevon's paradox had nothing to do with it. It was cheap oil flooding this country.
A combination of cheaper oil and greater efficiency.
That makes no sense whatsoever. How do you get SUV driving = greater efficiency?


Greater fuel efficiency led to bigger cars, bigger houses, more lighting, etc.

Classic Jevons' Paradox.

What do you think the MPG of an SUV would be without the efficiency gains?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby kublikhan » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 17:56:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hat makes no sense whatsoever. How do you get SUV driving = greater efficiency?
Greater fuel efficiency led to bigger cars, bigger houses, more lighting, etc.
Classic Jevons' Paradox.
What do you think the MPG of an SUV would be without the efficiency gains?
Exactly where they are now. Between 1991 and 2003, fuel economy standards have been stagnant! 20.7 mpg for 2 wheel drive light trucks, and 19.1 mpg for 4 wheel drive light trucks.
The CAFE Standards
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 21:14:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')he practical efficiency is 100%, regardless of the theoretical figure.
The practical efficiency is ~30%, w/ the peak efficiency at ~60%. Go forth and learn, ye of d00mcopia! ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')hat is, all of the oil burned in the world's billion ICEs, is used up. How do you propose to free up that extra 40%, 60% or 99% of oil used as ICE fuel, for other uses, and do you think it remotely likely?
Replacement and efficiency increases. The thing is, we aren't just talking about the efficiency of otto cycle engines, we're talking about the efficiency of personal transportation in general. This ranges from ~4kWh/mile on gasoline to ~.1 kWh/mile on electricity. Not counting of course moving closer to work or working closer to home, which is probably driving the inside-out effects of the housing slump in CA for instance. Electric vehicles in China, if they already haven't, are about to dominate the new vehicle market, and due to short run elasticity consumption in the states is down ~2-4%, and with long-run eleasticity likely being far higher, unless oil prices drop a lot more than the $8 seen recently, consumption will likely drop further. All this and we're a half decade away from the projected (TOD) 4.5%/year decline rates.

We haven't even seen peak, but are already seeing reductions in consumption as well as alternatives on a very large scale. Post peak when decline rates take off, at ~4.5%, do you think we're going to see more or less of what we're seeing currently?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 21:34:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')What do you think the MPG of an SUV would be without the efficiency gains?
Exactly where they are now. Between 1991 and 2003, fuel economy standards have been stagnant! 20.7 mpg for 2 wheel drive light trucks, and 19.1 mpg for 4 wheel drive light trucks.
The CAFE Standards


Son, I am afraid you must be too young to know about the gas mileage of cars in my day. Try 10 to 12 mpg before efficiency gains.

We use to say that you had to shut off a Cadillac in order to fill it up.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 21:38:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, in your mind, when oil starts it's relentless decline, efficiency gains alone will provide not only the energy to offset decline, but also to allow for normal economic growth, as well as, a massive ramp up of technology to mitigate it?

Depending upon the rate of decline, that translates into efficiency gains on a double-digit scale every year for the foreseeable future.

Not.

Where do you get these notions?
My mind? It was almost half of China's new vehicle growth two years ago and likely the majority of it now. It's what's funneling the turn around in the real estate market from the inside out, as well as the drop in US oil consumption, which short of a huge drop in oil prices, will likely be far larger long-run. It isn't about efficiency alone, it's also about replacement and change.

Hell, we incur ~$.27-1.78 trillion a year in externalize costs via automobile use. Toss in fuel costs compared to efficient alternatives for another ~$.5 trillion difference. We evidently don't have a want for money, much less energy, given how we squander both. Will higher oil prices result in more efficient use and alternatives? Sure thing boss! We're a half decade away from 4.5% decline rates according to TOD, and already we're seeing 4% drops in consumption.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby yesplease » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 21:42:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')What do you think the MPG of an SUV would be without the efficiency gains?
Exactly where they are now. Between 1991 and 2003, fuel economy standards have been stagnant! 20.7 mpg for 2 wheel drive light trucks, and 19.1 mpg for 4 wheel drive light trucks.
The CAFE Standards


Son, I am afraid you must be too young to know about the gas mileage of cars in my day. Try 10 to 12 mpg before efficiency gains.

We use to say that you had to shut off a Cadillac in order to fill it up.
Your old age must be wearing on ya, a car isn't an SUV. ;) And unless your day was 1991-2003, it certainly ain't applicable to kublikhan's point. In fact, the efficiency of passenger vehicles in the US has more or less been stagnant for the last two decades or so.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby kublikhan » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 00:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')What do you think the MPG of an SUV would be without the efficiency gains?
Exactly where they are now. Between 1991 and 2003, fuel economy standards have been stagnant! 20.7 mpg for 2 wheel drive light trucks, and 19.1 mpg for 4 wheel drive light trucks.
The CAFE Standards

Son, I am afraid you must be too young to know about the gas mileage of cars in my day. Try 10 to 12 mpg before efficiency gains.
We use to say that you had to shut off a Cadillac in order to fill it up.
Your old age must be wearing on ya, a car isn't an SUV. ;) And unless your day was 1991-2003, it certainly ain't applicable to kublikhan's point. In fact, the efficiency of passenger vehicles in the US has more or less been stagnant for the last two decades or so.
That is exactly right. Monte, if you look at the graph that you yourself posted, it supports what I am saying. When MPG was actually rising during late 1970s to 1990, Fuel consumption was dropping. Then from 1991 to the end of your graph, MPG stagnates. And fuel consumption rises. You can't blame rising fuel economy or Jevons' paradox on the increase in fuel consumption because there was no rise in fuel economy during that time! All that is left to explain the rise in fuel consumption and abandonment of fuel economy is a flood of cheap oil causing lower prices. No Jevons' paradox to see here. Move along, move along:
Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') am 57 and have been following this stuff since 1972, closely. I have seen it all unfold. I have heard this argument for decades. Doesn' t hold water. We have 150 years of empirical data to show it does not. I have brought forth examples of empirical evidence to support my argument. I have shown how your interpretation of the data is flawed. I have cited expert studies on rebound effects and how they don't cause the backfire you are talking about in mature technologies. If you have further empirical evidence to present I would love to see it. But what you have shown me thus far is not an example of Jevons' paradox. After all of this discussion, it appears the authors of the report on Rebound Effects were right, they don't cause backfire in mature technologies.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 00:50:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Your old age must be wearing on ya, a car isn't an SUV. ;)


Good lord. This is over your head, no?

If not for efficiency gains, SUV's would not be getting 20 mpg.
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