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Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 13:44:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'R')eminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.

So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.

:roll:


Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."

I've had a similiar experience. My current advisor from the company my retirement $ are with wanted to meet with me and go over my choices and I declined. He was flabbergasted. Why he inquired, don't you want to go over how your money is doing? To which I replied, "I track it everytime my Yahoo! homepage comes up." The fund I have my money in is on there and I can see at a click how its been doing. Besides I said, I have it in the best long-term performing fund there is, anything you suggest would probably get me a worse return..." Cruel I know but I loved it.

TF
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 13:58:12

Whatever happened to $300bbl will leave the economy in smoldering ruins? :-x
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby mefistofeles » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:11:39

Oil prices are so high now that a $5 movement is just like $1 movement a few years ago.

Besides even if prices stay at this level inevitably consumption would rise.

The only thing that will even keep energy consumption at current levels is rising prices, that's assuming flat resource production.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:14:06

It'll drop all the way down to $200, after the rise to $235.
People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Cashmere » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:14:48

Like I've said campers, don't let the jittery drops fool you . . .

The only way out is up, and everybody who understands the issues understands that conclusion.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:15:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'R')eminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money. So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm. :roll:
Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."
It's outside the original thread --Oil is Dropping. How low will it go?--, but I can't resist to throw my 2 cents. We often despise. A pity. So, you 2 are saying that unless your local Rolls-Royce salesperson drives a Rolls-Royce, you're not buying a Rolls-Royce ? It reminds me of when IBM gave Gates the Heisman, and Gates went on to retire the 3rd wealthiest man on Earth.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:16:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'C')learly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.


Thank you, Daniel Yergin.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:24:59

Ultimately, demand destruction will be in a foot race with production decline rates.

This phenomenon will prove baffling to people who can't understand why prices remain persistently high (or even rise) no matter how much demand destruction takes place.
:)
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:25:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')hey said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.


You are going way too far the other way. We will still see an inflationary depression that will set the floor under the price pretty high, but bring the ceiling much lower.


The association of paper money figures to items of real intrinsic value is far from an exact science. Whether we have an inflationary or a deflationary depression, the one thing I am sure of is that J6P will no longer have the means to buy nearly as much as he is accustomed to. Maybe we should quote the price of oil in hrs of median wage/barrel
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Cashmere » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:30:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'R')eminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money. So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm. :roll:
Good one Cash. I bet you were thinking; "let me see here, should I, a man with 6 figures take advice from a guy who probably has a negative net worth...? No thanks, I'll pass."
It's outside the original thread --Oil is Dropping. How low will it go?--, but I can't resist to throw my 2 cents. We often despise. A pity. So, you 2 are saying that unless your local Rolls-Royce salesperson drives a Rolls-Royce, you're not buying a Rolls-Royce ? It reminds me of when IBM gave Gates the Heisman, and Gates went on to retire the 3rd wealthiest man on Earth.


Spoken like a man with no money to invest.

When a man is selling me a Rolls Royce, then he is selling me a Rolls Royce.

When a man is selling me his "financial expertise", then he is, after all, selling me himself, is he not?

So, if a man wants to sell himself to me as an expert in investment, then I'd want to see behavior that exemplifies his expertise.

Getting paid 45k a year to sit in a cube farm with your BA in economics/finance does not, in my opinion, exemplify such expertise.

And TF is right - the guy working at Stank of America as the cube farm financial expert very likely has a massively negative Net Worth.

Minimally, I'd want to follow him out to the parking lot to see what he drives.

He gets in a Honda Civic, bump him up one notch.

He gets in a Land Rover/Jeep/Any American Car/Any SUV, then he is not going to touch my money.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:43:20

The perfect investment advisor would arrive at our meeting on a bicycle with his BOB over his shoulder.

He would say to me: "For the first hour we talk you're going to think I'm crazy. After the second hour you're going to think I'm brilliant. After the third hour you're going to be asking me how much I will sell you this bugout bag for. At the end of the conversation, I won't recommend anything to you, I will simply ask you what the obvious course of action seems to be."

As the meeting ended, he would give me his bugout bag as a gift (which I would snatch and hold closely). I would walk him out and there would be a stretch Prius limousine with a bike rack on the back and his chauffer would be loading his bike onto it.

As he drove away I would look at his business card and see that the only way to contact him would be by HAM radio.
:)
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby NoWorries » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:50:59

It's clearly trending down now.

I predict $120 by August, and $100 by September. Possibly sooner. It will likely settle in the 90-110 range for rest of the year.


The big story will be the worsening economy. I expect things will be much worse by end October.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I')f a man wants to sell himself to me as an expert in investment, then I'd want to see behavior that exemplifies his expertise.
So you can tell all about a person's behavior by looking at the cube in which it sits. You're too smart for me. Please remind me to show up at our meeting dressed in the 3-piece Italian suit, stretch limo, Rolex, bling-bling, etc. Appearances have always sold a lot.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Blacksmith » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 15:03:17

You mean I can take my SUV out of mothballs. Hold on Gertrude here we go!
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 16:11:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'I')t's clearly trending down now.
After two days of falls, that's a clear trend? Was it a clear trend a couple of weeks ago, before it started to rise again, with that huge jump a week ago? How about the clear trend in the latter part of May, when it fell from 134 to 124?
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby CoachT » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 17:07:24

Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Mominator » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 17:42:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'I')f you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

I'm still interested in hearing your reasoning/information behind this statement.
~Laura

"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Mominator » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 17:44:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', '[')b]Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.

Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no?
~Laura

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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby Cashmere » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 18:40:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mominator', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', '[')b]Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.

Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no?


Mominator, if we were both available, I'd be sending a car to pick you up for dinner right about now.

:oops:


Never keep too much cash in checking - that's what I always say.

:twisted:
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 18:54:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mominator', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', '[')b]Cashmere Wrote: Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.
Keep on saving kid. 6 figures will not get you far.

Six figures in a checking account as liquid funds probably represents only a fraction of the total, no?


Mominator, if we were both available, I'd be sending a car to pick you up for dinner right about now.

:oops:


Never keep too much cash in checking - that's what I always say.

:twisted:


You can obviously afford a whole lotta love, if your avatar rings true.
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