[NoWorries]

Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

I think the odds are > 50% on that. I also think the likelihood of a stock market crash is > 50% by year end, and that will almost certainly depress oil prices even further.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'A')re we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

[AlexdeLarge]

I don't think its reflecting the supply side of the equation. Looks like the "Speculators" are now anticipating recession and heavy demand destruction.

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'A')re we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

[Kingcoal]

Demand destruction will cause the price to fluctuate in the short term, but I don't care about the short term. IMO, the long term trend is up, up and away.

[NeoPeasant]

They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')hey said of the 1930's depression, "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar". Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

[Cashmere]

Don't let every 5 or 10 dollar drop sway you.

When the price gets low enough, there is going to be a major spike back up.

Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.

There are market players and forces well beyond what we can imagine.

Who knows, maybe there is motivation to suppress price to get short interest built for later squeezing.

In the end, oil moves up. If you have a 2 month long position, worry. If you have a 2 year long position, "what, me worry?"

[CoachT]

If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'I')f you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

[Cashmere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'I')f you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'I')f you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')
Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')hey said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.

[Peleg]

Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'C')learly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

[zberry]

The lowest it will get is back to (or just under) the long-term trendline on the monthly chart going back to 1998. When we had the big correction a few years ago, down to 55 or whatever, it held the trendline (actually bounced off it hard). I would guess that trendline is now in the $75 -80 range, moving a bit higher every day.
Here's what I am keeping in mind. If we are at peak now, there are roughly 1 trillion barrels left of economically recoverable oil. There are 6.7 billion humans. That is between 100 and 150 barrels per person. Each US citizen uses approx 25 per year(maybe 22 or 23 now). Theoretically, each US citizens' fair allotment will be gone in less than six years.
Also, keep in mind the number of cars.
USA - 750 cars per 1,000 people
China - 4 cars per 1,000 people, but selling 500,000 units per month.
India - $2,500 Tata car so all 500 million middle class Indians can drive!
ELM shows net exports will decline 75% by 2031.
Long-term, the trend is up, unless we in the US can suddenly turn Amish overnight!

[smallpoxgirl]

There's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'C')learly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'T')here's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134.