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I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in smoke

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 09:47:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wertz', 'A')s far as the U.S. goes, I think this will hurt bad, as bad if not worse as anything since the great depression, but its not going to happen overnight.


Well, so far it has. Looked at the stock market and the price of oil?

To say it's not going to happen overnight requires you to know what the rate of oil decline willbe and what the URR's really are.

No one knows these answers. No one.


You really think that one of these days soon, everything's just going to go to complete hell in a hand-basket overnight?
I believe you're right about nobody knowing the exact answers.
But I have a hard time believing that it's likely that we're just going to wake up one morning, and everything will be changed in an instant, 380°.
From everything I've read about this issue, and the way humans operate, that's just not how it works.
Maybe if you said things would change in a couple of weeks that would sound a tad more sane. But saying that dramatic social & economic changes will take place in a space of 24 hours is just far out, IMHO, except maybe for a religious zealot. And if your take involves religion, I think it's only fair to point that out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')k, so who does without energy while we divert it to building renewables, coal plants and nuclear facilities?


Ha, well that should be obvious, shouldn't it now? As since the dawn of 'civilization', the sick, the poor, the downtrodden, the disadvantaged, but of course.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')lectricity? What about liquid fuels? Electrical shortages may be coming, but right now the game in town is liquid fuels.


Well hold on here. The way you're saying everything's going to change dramatically overnight, then the 2 would go together pretty swiftly.
And besides, hasn't everybody decided that the 2 are very linked anyway - that the electricity system is dependent upon liquid fuel, if not for most running, but at least infrastructure?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')olve the crisis? Which one? The unsustainable civilization crisis? Or just the techno-fix crisis to perpetuate the former?


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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 09:56:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'w')ertz
I pretty much share your view. There's so much unbelievable fat out there that can be trimmed before things get to the zombie/roaming gangs level.


Let's add a bit of clarity to that:

There's so much unbelievable fat (hard-working people's jobs)out there that can be trimmed before things get to the zombie/roaming gangs level.

Trim all that fat (people's jobs) and you may get a zombie gang from ranks of the unemployed.

Why is it that people don't seem to grasp that "fat" and "waste" employs millions. It all gets bought and paid for and delivered before it can be wasted.


Yes, thus the die-off. Either by the "fat" dying off, or by the "fat" killing the others to save themselves.

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But I think there will be a delayed reaction to that. I think the first wave of unemployed will wait until it's too late to take up arms, so the rest of you affluent folk really can relax for at least a little bit, I think that's true. They might not even realize what's happening to them & why, and there might be enough time for some of you guys to pull the wool over by misdirection. The secondary masses might not buy into any bullcrap & lie down to die so easily.
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 10:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', '
')But I have a hard time believing that it's likely that we're just going to wake up one morning, and everything will be changed in an instant, 380°.


Who is making that claim?
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 10:22:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', '
')But I have a hard time believing that it's likely that we're just going to wake up one morning, and everything will be changed in an instant, 380°.


Who is making that claim?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wertz', 'A')s far as the U.S. goes, I think this will hurt bad, as bad if not worse as anything since the great depression, but its not going to happen overnight.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')o say it's not going to happen overnight requires you to know what the rate of oil decline willbe and what the URR's really are.


Sure sounds like you're arguing for a possibility of overnight to me.
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 10:25:50

I guess "overnight" means different things to different people. Some might mean it literally - today we're fine, tomorrow we're destitute. Others might mean it metaphorically, that is "overnight" means "relatively quickly." In terms of societal change, something happening over a period of say, five years is "overnight." It's certainly possible to see such an "overnight" change if oil decline rates are 8 -14%.
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 11:14:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') guess "overnight" means different things to different people. Some might mean it literally - today we're fine, tomorrow we're destitute. Others might mean it metaphorically, that is "overnight" means "relatively quickly." In terms of societal change, something happening over a period of say, five years is "overnight." It's certainly possible to see such an "overnight" change if oil decline rates are 8 -14%.


I see what you mean, I do, about phrase usage.
And I tend to be more literal than most, yes.

But I really don't think anyone in the general public means "5 years" when they say "overnight". Think most people would assume it means, at least, less than a year!

Who's with me on this? :-D

I can't speak for wertz, but I think by the post, it seemed to me to mean that everything, the whole shebang, our entire economy & society, was not going to be some sudden cataclysmic change happening abruptly, overnight, or in a week, or maybe not even in just a few months.

But I would've never imagined wertz meant "the changes won't happen over a period of 5 years" when the term "overnight" was used.

5 years isn't abrupt cataclysmic societal change, unless you're an anthropologist or archaeologist and this isn't an archaeology forum.

So maybe we should just hear clarification from the source. What about it wertz? Does "overnight" = 5 years? 24 hours? Several weeks? Are you an anthropologist?
;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t's certainly possible to see such an "overnight" change if oil decline rates are 8 -14%.


Okay, so please clarify. First, what do you mean by "overnight"? And what, specifically are you talking about changing?
:P

I feel like Gideon Ambassador Hodin. haha. Sorry!
:roll:
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 11:32:43

I look at ambiguous phrases like "overnight" in context. So in the context of a societal change or geologic event it could mean years or decades. Peak oil is now to me means +- 10 years. Because it doesn't really matter. Most people I agree have a really short-term view of everything so "overnight" is viewed with that bias. A "long-term" investment for some is a year or two.

While I'm here, I'm curious about watermelon's 380 degree change. Why did you pick 380 ? That's a complete revolution plus 20 degrees for a net change of 20 degrees. I think a lot of people say 360 degrees but mean 180 degrees. 380 is a new one.
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 11:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', '
')Okay, so please clarify. First, what do you mean by "overnight"? And what, specifically are you talking about changing?


To me, personally, "overnight" in this context means something like "in the next few years" - "the next few years" meaning something like 3- 5 years. "Changing" in the way some of us might be talking about, means, to me, something like "economic collapse" which means something like "most people become poor" - "most people" meaning "the majority" or "over 50%" and "poor" meaning "unable to afford more than the basic necessities of life" - "the basic necessities of life" meaning "food, water, clothing, and shelter."

Or something like that. Granted, it's pretty vague.


Other people may have other ideas.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', 'I') feel like Gideon Ambassador Hodin. haha. Sorry!
:roll:


This is called "trying to communicate with other people." :)
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 14:49:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I') look at ambiguous phrases like "overnight" in context. So in the context of a societal change or geologic event it could mean years or decades.


If this were a geologically themed web site, I would've probably had that mindset. But despite being about OIL, this web site seems to be a cultural social web site. IE: More discussions on economy & lifestyle, and personal concerns... than discussions about science.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'P')eak oil is now to me means +- 10 years.


I have to say, on this forum, I'm hearing more "it's already started"... next week or next month kind of imperative impending talk. So in that context, it's easy to take "overnight" at face value.
The fact that you're putting the number 10 in there, in years, makes you sound like one of the more extremely moderate people on this forum.
;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'M')ost people I agree have a really short-term view of everything so "overnight" is viewed with that bias. A "long-term" investment for some is a year or two.


Now that I would be going to the other way.
To me, "overnight" would mean either literally overnight, or within some days or weeks, at most a couple of months.
And if someone here said "long-term" or "the long haul", I would be thinking 50 years.
If someone said "short-term", I would be thinking 5-10 years, maybe less in context of this forum.

If someone clearly defined as a geologist or archaeologist was speaking, the whole attitude changes. If an archaeologist said "long-term", I would take that to mean centuries at least, maybe thousands. If a geologist said "long-term", I would assume he meant millions of years. haha!

:-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'W')hile I'm here, I'm curious about watermelon's 380 degree change. Why did you pick 380 ? That's a complete revolution plus 20 degrees for a net change of 20 degrees. I think a lot of people say 360 degrees but mean 180 degrees. 380 is a new one.


It was a typo. I may have had "360" pass through my head and when I was thinking 180, I typed 380. haha. Or maybe my finger hit the wrong key - I use the top row #s. By the time I noticed it, I'd already been quoted, so what's the point in editing at that point. And I just figured everyone would guess what I meant. Sorry about the confusion!

In a way though... it could be a 360... Being that people think the post-industrial age will be much like the pre-industrial age.
;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', '
')Okay, so please clarify. First, what do you mean by "overnight"? And what, specifically are you talking about changing?

To me, personally, "overnight" in this context means something like "in the next few years" - "the next few years" meaning something like 3- 5 years. "Changing" in the way some of us might be talking about, means, to me, something like "economic collapse" which means something like "most people become poor" - "most people" meaning "the majority" or "over 50%" and "poor" meaning "unable to afford more than the basic necessities of life" - "the basic necessities of life" meaning "food, water, clothing, and shelter."

Or something like that. Granted, it's pretty vague.

Other people may have other ideas.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', 'I') feel like Gideon Ambassador Hodin. haha. Sorry!
:roll:

This is called "trying to communicate with other people." :)

Yeah, vague and "unprecise". With such lack of standard reference points, clear cut #s, & all these variables, it's a wonder anyone can carry on an intelligible conversation at all on this forum about this topic!

Just think... sometime when someone thinks to call someone else a "doomer" - remember, that doomer might be thinking in terms of 30 years, whereas the supposed moderate may be thinking in terms of 5! LOL
:lol:
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 17:38:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', ' ') You really think that one of these days soon, everything's just going to go to complete hell in a hand-basket overnight?


The stock market has been known to do that at times. And it just may, "one of these days soon" from the looks of things.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe if you said things would change in a couple of weeks that would sound a tad more sane. But saying that dramatic social & economic changes will take place in a space of 24 hours is just far out, IMHO, except maybe for a religious zealot.


No one I know, and especially me, is saying that the oil crisis is going to literally happen overnight. I see a slow decline, for reasons I posted in the thread by that name. But, as I mentioned above, the financial systems sure could.

My point was that Peakoil is tomorrow in planning terms.

Depending upon the rate of decline, "happen overnight" might as well be the case.

Run the Rule of 70 and see what various decline rates give you.

Not much time to change everything 360 degrees, is it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s since the dawn of 'civilization', the sick, the poor, the downtrodden, the disadvantaged, but of course.


Sorry, not enough. Who else?
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby watermelonpunch » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 18:31:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', ' ') You really think that one of these days soon, everything's just going to go to complete hell in a hand-basket overnight?


The stock market has been known to do that at times. And it just may, "one of these days soon" from the looks of things.


I'm not discounting something like that... And I'm not even discounting cataclysmic consequences.
But even that, I don't think is going to change our society completely abruptly in whole aspects. That was my point.

I agree the planning is way behind, but I don't think that will stop a great number of people hanging on as long as they can before going off the cliff.
I've said it before, a lot of people are not rational, and completely lack common sense.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', 'A')s since the dawn of 'civilization', the sick, the poor, the downtrodden, the disadvantaged, but of course.

Sorry, not enough. Who else?


Well there might be just about enough if you look at it from the angle of the downtrodden being 95% of the population or more.
8O

Maybe it's the apocolyptic sci-fi fan in me who's seen too many movies, but I could totally see a few rich powerful people tooling around in their armored cars, running their hot tubs, with a paid army to protect them, while a mass around them scrounges for food, vying for a slightly more comfortable position slaving directly for the overlord.

Yeah, I have "Soylent Green" on dvd. :lol:

I think somebody will think to save enough fuel to run the people scoops.
:shock:
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 01:30:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('watermelonpunch', '
')But even that, I don't think is going to change our society completely abruptly in whole aspects. That was my point.


So, "I don't think" is the subject of that sentence, and it's going to change our society completely abrubtly in whole aspects? ;)
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Re: I'm worried, but I dont think everything will go up in s

Unread postby Nicholai » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 01:46:15

According to TheOilDrum, we're headed for our final peak in 2010. Most look at May of 2005 as the world peak but it appears to be pumped to 2010. I think 2009 will be our last "stable" year. 2010 will be horrendous. I can't wait to get things in gear now.
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