[cualcrees]

[quote="ROCKMAN"]cualcrees,

I'll second Dante's statement. I've spent in Mexico...did field work there as a young geologist a lifetime ago. I've always felt the Mexican people could really develop their society if they could take control from the elite power structure. But knowledge is power and the state did a great job of keeping them in the dark for generations. It will very sickening to watch their realization that they have been truly abandoned by those who pretended to be their protectors.

Yeah, the general feeling here in Mexico, is that all of our politicians are crooks who are only in it for the money; we've been robed blind for generations and, truth be told, I don't see it stopping anytime soon... (I guess it's like that everywhere, right!? ) God knows what's gonna happen once the people in Mexico realize the truth about our "precious" oil and its demise.

[35Kas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou know what I've been thinking lately? From what I understand, the U.S. gets a lot of its imported oil from Mexico; so it worries me to think what could eventually happen if my government where to decide - specially now that our oil production is in BIG decline -, to stop selling it to the U.S. and to conserve it for domestic use. Do you envision a scenario like that happening? If so, how do you think the U.S. government would react?

[ReducedToZero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'W')hatever - I'm a doomer because I get it, and I don't look for the little glittery sequins sparkling from the steaming turd load the dog dropped in the front room carpet because he ate a kid's doll earlier that day - I leave that job to you.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'B')ienvenidos al Club de Peak Oil. He tenido la misma experiencia, hablando con la gente aqui. No sabe, ni quiere saber.
Estamos en una situacion muy mala.Creo que la unica solucion es la communidad.
Nosotros tenemos mas dinero, pero ustedes en Mexico tienen mas communidad. Va a ser muy interesante.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cualcrees', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'c')ualcrees, I'll second Dante's statement. I've spent in Mexico...did field work there as a young geologist a lifetime ago. I've always felt the Mexican people could really develop their society if they could take control from the elite power structure. But knowledge is power and the state did a great job of keeping them in the dark for generations. It will very sickening to watch their realization that they have been truly abandoned by those who pretended to be their protectors.

[misterno]

Mexico is big time farked. Now, I need to decide when to short Mexican Bolsa Index. This shit will eventually hit their stock market. But how and when is the question...

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'M')exico is big time farked. Now, I need to decide when to short Mexican Bolsa Index. This crap will eventually hit their stock market. But how and when is the question...

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roduction at Mexico’s Cantarell oil complex, one of the world’s largest, has plummeted by a third in the past year, an indication the country could lose self-sufficiency in oil in the medium term.

Average daily production dropped to slightly more than 1m barrels a day in May compared with more than 1.6m b/d in the same month last year, according to the energy ministry.

Mexico’s total oil production fell about 10 per cent in the past 12 months to 2.79m b/d in May. That was only marginally above April’s output, which was the lowest in a decade.

“This is not a good sign,” said George Baker, head of energia.com, a Houston-based consultancy. “But it does at least strengthen the government’s position that there is an approaching crisis in oil production.”

[3aidlillahi]

Oh man. I remember the days when Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% a year. Remember those days, guys?

Then it was 15%...Then 17%...Then 20%. Then 25% and now 34%! This seriously can't get any higher, can it? At some point it's gotta stabilize (say 40%?) and then come back down as the field is producing squat. Seems like there's always a tail end, especially at these prices.

I remember doing the calculations a few years ago and found that oil exports account for 10% of the Mexican economy! (This number is a little different now with higher prices and lower exports, though.) When they were "rolling" in oil dough, they were still exporting a million of their citizens to the US. What's that number going to get to when their exports become imports?

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') am not an expert on NAFTA, but if I understand this correctly then the US, Mexico, and Canada must sell oil, oil products, and natural gas to each other at market prices.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')h man. I remember the days when Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% a year. Remember those days, guys?
Then it was 15%...Then 17%...Then 20%. Then 25% and now 34%! This seriously can't get any higher, can it? At some point it's gotta stabilize (say 40%?) and then come back down as the field is producing squat. Seems like there's always a tail end, especially at these prices.

[ROCKMAN]

Dante,

I haven't see anything about a doughnut but I'll run some traps at lunch. Last story I saw on the western OCS in the Gulf concerned the nomination of new blocks right along the Mexico boundary. That same story reaffirmed the rights as outlined in long ago treaties allowing operators on either side to utilize "right of capture" laws (i.e. no sharing required). But perhaps NAFTA modified those original treaties.

[cualcrees]

"Mexico's oil exports fell 17.3% between January and November, to an average of one million 410 thousand bpd, compared to the same period in 2007.
Acording to Pemex, crude production declined 9.3% in the same period, to 2 million 806 thousand bpd, while the production at Cantarell declined 31% in the first 11 months of the year, to an average of one million 28 thousand bpd."

Link in spanish

Merged with THE Cantarell Thread (merged). -FL

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Cantarell Collapsing - Study Projects "Uneconomic" As Early As 2014 As Gas Cap Falls Rapidly

Cantarell is the largest single field in what has come to be known as the Cantarell Complex. About 35 fields comprise the complex. Ku, Maloob and Zaap are three relatively large fields located immediately to the northwest of Cantarell field. Cantarell itself has been ranked by some compilers as the sixth largest oil field in the world. One field in the complex, Ixtoc, was the scene of a disastrous fire in the late 1980s, completely destroying a semi submersible drilling rig.

As for Cantarell, discovered in 1979, by 1981 was flowing 1.156 million bbl/day from 40 wells. An average well in 1981 would produce 29,000 bbl/day. Development continued with production coming from many of the fields including Ixtoc, but as flow rates fell, gas lift equipment was installed. By 1995, the average well would produce 7,000 bbl/day. The gas lift program was expanded and by 1999, total production from the complex was 1.4 million bbl/day.

But reservoir pressure continued to decline. Had there been no pressure maintenance installation, by 2004, production per well would have been about 3,200 bbl/day. Under that regime, production would continue for many years at ever declining rates. Engineering studies were made to improve production rates from more than 150 wells that existed at that time. Based on a study of the Yates field in West Texas, Pemex decided to inject nitrogen gas into the dome of Cantarell. That began in May of 2000 at an initial rate of 300 million cubic feet/day and was expanded through the year with a total of four stages to 1,200 million cubic feet/day. Production comes from fractured and vugular limestone of Jurassic, Cretaceous and Lower Paleocene ages. The original estimate of reserves was 17 billion barrels but this was raised to 19.3 after the nitrogen gas had pushed the original oil/water contact back to its original position. By 12/31/2006, cumulative production was 16.6 billion barrels. In 2004, the complex produced 2.136 million bbl/day which declined to 1.525 million by 2007.

Production declines as the expanding gas cap intersects the well bores. Considering that the gas/oil contact is level across the field, many wells are affected simultaneously. Today the end is near with expectations that Cantarell will become uneconomic as early as 2014 and no later than 2019. The three field sub-complex Ku-Maloob-Zaap is expected to begin its terminal decline in 2010.

link

[Roy]

Members of this site have been predicting that for what? 5 years now or thereabouts.

And they also predicted that the decline in Cantarell's production would lead to the chaos Mexico is currently experiencing.

If Mexico is no longer an oil exporter, then what is its value to the NAU or SPP? Cheap labor I suppose.

Mercenaries maybe?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', '
')Mercenaries maybe?

[Plantagenet]

Since the socialized PEMEX Mexican national oil company is failing fast, they can vote to reverse the half-century old nationaliization of Mexico's oil industry and allow private companies to come in and try to help find the remaining oil (if any oil companies are stupid enough to believe that they wouldn't be nationalized out of business again if they found some oil).

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')(if any oil companies are stupid enough to believe that they wouldn't be nationalized out of business again if they found some oil).

[TheDude]

This missive courtesy of none other than Michael Lynch. I thought in his ever-increasing world of bountiful reserves this thing wasn't supposed to happen.

Profile includes a photo; always thought Mike was a late boomer for some reason.



GLG News Analyses by Michael Lynch - Gerson Lehrman Group. Looks like he chimes in every couple days, will have to see what his take is these days.

Hey DoomWarrior, little spin on your Capt Kirk .gif for ya: eeebbf0147efa8859931e7716bf22a02. From The Great GIF Gallery