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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 03:03:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause global population is still growing?
Of course, but then effciency gains aren't a long-term solution are they?
I never claimed efficiency gains were a long term solution. I said they would have mitigating effects on peak oil without triggering a recession and without increasing overall per capita usage.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd they increase consumption beyond population growth.
Image
Are you seriously using the United States as a shinning beacon of vehicle efficiency gains? Why not try looking at a country who's efficiency policies were not a complete joke:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n contrast to the United States, where oil consumption initially fell but then ended up rising by a total of 16 percent from 1973 to 2003, in France, despite some increase in recent years, oil use is still 10 percent lower today than it was three decades ago, according to the United States Energy Information Administration. (Germany also matched France’s record.)
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Are you seriously using the United States as a shinning beacon of vehicle efficiency gains?


Nope. As a shining example of Jevons' Paradox.

More efficient vehicles and we drove farther and used more gas.

Putting something on sale doesn't make people buy less of it.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:13:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Are you seriously using the United States as a shinning beacon of vehicle efficiency gains?
Nope. As a shining example of Jevons' Paradox.
Bad example:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s fuel efficiency rises, people drive their cars more, which offsets some of the gains that might be had in carbon dioxide emissions from the higher standards. While driving more results from the increased economic benefit to consumers of higher efficiency vehicles, the National Academies Report (Page 19)[7]estimates this "rebound effect" as reducing the gains from increased fuel economy by only 10-20 percent.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:59:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Are you seriously using the United States as a shinning beacon of vehicle efficiency gains?
Nope. As a shining example of Jevons' Paradox.
Bad example:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s fuel efficiency rises, people drive their cars more, which offsets some of the gains that might be had in carbon dioxide emissions from the higher standards. While driving more results from the increased economic benefit to consumers of higher efficiency vehicles, the National Academies Report (Page 19)[7]estimates this "rebound effect" as reducing the gains from increased fuel economy by only 10-20 percent.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy


Yet, history says otherwise. See charts I posted.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:12:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')et, history says otherwise. See charts I posted.
If that were true, it would imply the MPG of the American vehicle fleet sets the price of crude oil. Are you making such a claim?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:38:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')et, history says otherwise. See charts I posted.
If that were true, it would imply the MPG of the American vehicle fleet sets the price of crude oil. Are you making such a claim?


I don't claim anything. I cite the empirical data. "In the economics literature it is well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it"
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:32:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')et, history says otherwise. See charts I posted.
If that were true, it would imply the MPG of the American vehicle fleet sets the price of crude oil. Are you making such a claim?


I don't claim anything. I cite the empirical data. "In the economics literature it is well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it"
Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil.


Never said it would.???? Where did you get that notion? Not from me.

But if I am asked, in time, it will probably raise the price of crude as demand increases.

kublikhan,

How old are you? I am 57 and have been following this stuff since 1972, closely. I have seen it all unfold. I have heard this argument for decades. Doesn' t hold water. We have 150 years of empirical data to show it does not.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:45:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Lower prices spur greater consumption. But just because the United States increases its CAFE standards, that does not mean that alone is going to lower the price of crude. A multitude of factors influence the price of oil.


Never said it would.???? Where did you get that notion? Not from me.
If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:56:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox.


And if you look at my chart, you see that in the 90's gas consumption per vehicle went up due to the arrivial of the SUV craze.

However you look at it, lower price = greater consumption.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') If you look at a chart of the US per capita gasoline consumption over time, you will see that it started going up in the 90's. You implied this was because of Jevons' Paradox, the US auto fleet MPG was going up. I claim that is not the case. I claim that it was the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil that spurred greater consumption in the US, not Jevon's paradox.


And if you look at my chart, you see that in the 90's gas consumption per vehicle went up due to the arrivial of the SUV craze.

However you look at it, lower price = greater consumption.
Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:03:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Exactly. But what caused the lower price?


Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.

Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.

Image
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:16:11

Hate to jump in, but SUVs are classified as light trucks. I'm guessing that the increased efficiency in that chart reflects cars only.

If not, then carry on. 8)
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 23:38:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
Image
That's not what I see in that chart. I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 04:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
I'm not sure how you see fuel consumption dropping. That may have been the case for a short while but you have to effectively multiply the bottom two data lines together, to get total fuel consumption.

If increased efficiency results in lower consumption, wouldn't that also lower the price, as well as increased production flooding the market?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 05:01:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.
I'm not sure how you see fuel consumption dropping. That may have been the case for a short while but you have to effectively multiply the bottom two data lines together, to get total fuel consumption.
If increased efficiency results in lower consumption, wouldn't that also lower the price, as well as increased production flooding the market?
The green line is total fuel consumption. As was discussed earlier, there was a huge surge is the supply of oil in the 1990's the caused the price to tank. If you notice, the mpg flat lines in the 1990's as well. So you can't say flat mpg caused the price to lower.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 05:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he green line is total fuel consumption.
Eh? The line legend is "Gallons per Vehicle", not total consumption.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 05:38:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he green line is total fuel consumption.
Eh? The line legend is "Gallons per Vehicle", not total consumption.
Its per capita gasoline consumption per vehicle. Green = Red * Blue. Gasoline used = MPG * Miles driven.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 06:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he green line is total fuel consumption.
Eh? The line legend is "Gallons per Vehicle", not total consumption.
Its per capita gasoline consumption per vehicle. Green = Red * Blue. Gasoline used = MPG * Miles driven.
Thanks. So there is no total fuel consumption on the chart. What we need is number of cars.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 00:57:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Exactly. But what caused the lower price?
Both. Increased supply and efficieincy gains.
Look at the correlation to MPG. Mirror image.
Image
That's not what I see in that chart. I see from late 1970's to 1990's, MPG increases. I also see fuel consumption dropping during that time. Then I see in the 1990's, MPG flat lines. That's also when the market was flooded with cheap oil. What happened? Fuel consumption started rising. Your own source would seem to support my argument.


MPG flat-lined because SUV's came on the market.
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