[ROCKMAN]

Thanks Snik.

Even with whatever sort of breather increased drilling might allow it's difficult for many to imagine the potential disruption we could be facing very soon. The big wildcard goes back to the actual decline rate in Saudi. Many folks in the oil industry don't appreciate the scale and uniqueness. Even though there are some new plays of impressive size, as well as unknown developments in the future, it’s unlikely we’ll ever see enough new production to alter the arrival of PO by more than 5 or 10 years at most. But we badly need that extra time. The big downside to new drilling as well as the field developments already in progress is that many will think we’ve “fixed” PO and waste the time just as we did as the result of oil price collapse in the mid 80’s.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'I') was wondering the same thing, but then again I'm not the one that brought in all this population stuff to begin with. It seems like this overshoot business is mostly what this site is about anyway when you boil it all down.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ') Lol....you just contradicted yourself there Monte. This site isn't about overshoot, but since it is pivotal to any and all discussions (according to you) of solutions, every discussion ends up being about overshoot. Therefore, that is really what this site ends up being about.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ')every discussion ends up being about overshoot. Therefore, that is really what this site ends up being about.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ')every discussion ends up being about overshoot. Therefore, that is really what this site ends up being about.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ') Lol....you just contradicted yourself there Monte. This site isn't about overshoot, but since it is pivotal to any and all discussions (according to you) of solutions, every discussion ends up being about overshoot. Therefore, that is really what this site ends up being about.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'P')eak Oil is conjecture. We don't know if it's already happened, is happening now, is going to happen soon, or is going to happen on down the line. It's all guesswork until it happens, and it will probably take a few years to know for sure that it has happened when it does.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ')I understand that it is your Holy Grail, but we won't know we for sure until we start seeing the predicted results, correct?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ') Peak Oil is conjecture. We don't know if it's already happened, is happening now, is going to happen soon, or is going to happen on down the line. It's all guesswork until it happens, and it will probably take a few years to know for sure that it has happened when it does.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')In other words, overshoot belongs in that special category of predictions that has the capacity of turning the proving the prediction wrong by becoming consciouss of the prediction and acting to prevent it taking place as predicted.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')overshoot belongs in that special category of predictions that has the capacity of turning the proving the prediction wrong by becoming consciouss of the prediction and acting to prevent it taking place as predicted.

So in case of overshoot, by the nature of accusation, jury is out at least untill it's own die off. Doesn't mean that the role of Cassandra presenting the case for overshoot would be unimportant, no, it's crucial.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')In the case of the real actual Earth we're actually living on, people have known for decades that human population was exceeding the Earth's carrying capacity, and they did all they could to spread this knowledge. But we didn't act to prevent it occurring, we continued to grow far beyond Earth's carrying capacity.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', '
')
You are absolutely right Rock. We need the time, but if we don't use that time wisely it will just put us back in the same spot again. We won't get many more, if any, chances to get this right. If the price of oil goes down precipitously, as it very well could, over the next year or so the fear would be that they would squander the time we've bought us. That is one of the flaws of a governmental system like ours....our leaders can't seem to see past the next election cycle to make hard long term decisions. I'm not in any way advocating a change in the system, I just think we all need to somehow make sure they don't forget what is coming.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ') Peak Oil is conjecture. We don't know if it's already happened, is happening now, is going to happen soon, or is going to happen on down the line. It's all guesswork until it happens, and it will probably take a few years to know for sure that it has happened when it does.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')overshoot belongs in that special category of predictions that has the capacity of turning the proving the prediction wrong by becoming consciouss of the prediction and acting to prevent it taking place as predicted.

So in case of overshoot, by the nature of accusation, jury is out at least untill it's own die off. Doesn't mean that the role of Cassandra presenting the case for overshoot would be unimportant, no, it's crucial.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', '
')
You are absolutely right Rock. We need the time, but if we don't use that time wisely it will just put us back in the same spot again. We won't get many more, if any, chances to get this right. If the price of oil goes down precipitously, as it very well could, over the next year or so the fear would be that they would squander the time we've bought us. That is one of the flaws of a governmental system like ours....our leaders can't seem to see past the next election cycle to make hard long term decisions. I'm not in any way advocating a change in the system, I just think we all need to somehow make sure they don't forget what is coming.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', '
')
And you, sir, have an incomplete or faulty memory. What Jimmy Carter said is that we were about to run out 30 years ago.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') overshoot is a product of individualism and illogic.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') Are you yeast on a petridish or a human being?.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') Point being, neither you nor Monte really understand the consept of overshoot, or if you do just keep misrepresenting it or talking about it inaccurately.