[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')
There is no, "tada, fixed" with peakoil.

[Viper]

@allenwrench:

You're correct. Only the future will tell, however:

If you're willing to waste enough energy it IS possible to reverse the oxidation of long carbon chains into CO2 back into petroleum. So even though it might mean that we have to burn A LOT of solar energy to get those wonderful petrochemicals, if we value the petrochemicals enough, we'll do it.

As for the availability of solar. I predict that at some point we'll get tired of losing a bunch of it as waste on power lines, and instead deal with a fixed loss level by pouring all of it into chemical fuel cells which will then get shipped around just like we ship around oil these days. So, instead of having wires bringing power to your house, you'll have a truck stop by every few weeks / months and drop off a new fuel cell.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o summarize,

Less energy
Not the end of the world as we know it
More technology
Most of your children will wonder what the big deal was
More leisure for human beings

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Viper', '@')allenwrench:

You're correct. Only the future will tell, however:

If you're willing to waste enough energy it IS possible to reverse the oxidation of long carbon chains into CO2 back into petroleum. So even though it might mean that we have to burn A LOT of solar energy to get those wonderful petrochemicals, if we value the petrochemicals enough, we'll do it.

As for the availability of solar. I predict that at some point we'll get tired of losing a bunch of it as waste on power lines, and instead deal with a fixed loss level by pouring all of it into chemical fuel cells which will then get shipped around just like we ship around oil these days. So, instead of having wires bringing power to your house, you'll have a truck stop by every few weeks / months and drop off a new fuel cell.

[Viper]

@allenwrench:

I've read the books and watched the movies. Check the date next to my name and realize that TOD and LATOC have been daily readings for me for the past 4 years. Yes... I have a very keen understanding of the problems. It's just that I've also gotten a better understanding of 1. how we react to problems, and 2. how many sources of energy and how many efficiencies we're not applying right now.

Just one tiny example is those deep ocean heat exchangers I'm talking about. They are already being built for communities that are near deep waters as both a net positive energy source and an ultra cheap source of clean water. The one thing people complain about them is that your community has to be near deep water. Well, I don't see any reason that we can't build huge platforms of these things out in the middle of the ocean while shipping the energy and clean water back to shore in physical form. Basically just like oil rigs, but instead of oil, you're leaching heat out of the biggest solar collector on the planet (the ocean).

And, of course society will be disturbed. Society was disturbed when we went from copper to iron. It was disturbed when we went from horse drawn buggies to cars, and it is being disturbed these days by the internet. Getting disturbed is what societies do.

[Hermes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Viper', '
')I've read the books and watched the movies. Check the date next to my name and realize that TOD and LATOC have been daily readings for me for the past 4 years. Yes... I have a very keen understanding of the problems. It's just that I've also gotten a better understanding of 1. how we react to problems, and 2. how many sources of energy and how many efficiencies we're not applying right now.

[socrates1fan]

I have no doubt that alternatives will be able to replace a lot oil but my concern is whether or not those alternatives will be on board fast enough or avaliable to the lower and middle class.
Its too late to avoid the dark bubble between now, and when alternatives are in full swing.

[Viper]

@hermes:

No, I’m not lying by any stretch. I think we have some fundamental differences in our starting suppositions which are mostly predicated on a sense of absolutism that is expressed by most of the doomer I’ve run across on these boards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ee this civilization as thriving on non FF energy sources

[Hermes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Viper', '@')hermes:

No, I’m not lying by any stretch.

[Viper]

@Hermes:

Since we're going for the nitty gritty here,

Here's my part of that list:

Beyond Civilization: humanity's next great adventure
Beyond Oil: the view from Hubbert's Peak
Collapse
Crossing the Rubicon
A Crude Awakening - the oil crash
The End of Suburbia - oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream
The Long Emergency: surviving the converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century
The Oil Depletion Protocol : a plan to avert oil wars, terrorism and economic collapse
Powerdown: options and actions for a post-carbon world
Resource Wars: the new landscape of global conflict
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
Who Killed the Electric Car?

Yes, there have been days that I've skipped out on reading the sites due to travel, etc. Also, have been trying to read every ASPO news letter in its entirety as they come out, and I visit Simmon's site every once in a while to see if he has any new presentations.

On top of all that, I read Energybulletin.net fairly religiously, wish Lester Brown would write more often, and check in on RealClimate.org fairly regularly.

Good enough?


@MattS:

I think the implication is that since it becomes harder to get the oil out on the down side of the curve, you won't be seeing much of that oil. I would say who cares. The US is producing something like 20 to 25% of its current petroleum needs(37 years after peak) from local resources right now. Add in some unconventional resources, throw in a lot of efficiencies and pass a law mandating a 3 day work week and we can run the country on 0 exports for the next 20 years.(this is without a major development in Shale oil) The false implication in all of these arguments is that there is some sort of discontinuity where we simply call it quits because oil production has dropped below some magic number, and for some reason we decide that below that number technological civilization isn't worth it any more. I would counter that we will be burning soilient green fuel before we give up on technological civilization.

[Hermes]

Viper:

I suggest you stop reading about Peak Oil. It has been apparently fruitless.

[Viper]

Wow, hermes... Doomer or Bust? Seriously?

So there's no value in understanding oil depletion if one doesn't think that it will lead to the end of the world as we know it? I mean... independent of the long term outlook, it's obviously useful to understand what the near term fluctuations are, what the geopolitical ramifications are going to be... which businesses are going to go up/down/or sideways and when... what the current public sentiments are and where the psychology of the markets is going... I would say that there's a heck of a lot more to peak oil than zombie apocalypse and hoarding food. I also don't think that declaring that "all solutions will fail" and then using that statement as a basis as to why there will be no solutions is in anyway increasing the credibility of the peak oil community.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Viper', ' ')"all solutions will fail"

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'T')here is no, "tada, fixed" with peakoil.