[wordsmyth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'W')hat liberties is he talking about anyway?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ep Lehyina, you're just dumb. Peak oil cultists - along with all the other Malthusian finite resource theorists, are reactionaries in every sense. It is the oldest political game in the book: conjure up a threat and then grab more power and influence by saying you are the only one with the solution to the threat.

If you ever thought any of these people were in any way serious, just read this thread. They are childish, abusive and, without exception, nasty little people. Like most pre-pubescent boys - they are semi-literate and emotionally retarded.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wordsmyth', 'y')ou're just dumb. Peak oil cultists - along with all the other Malthusian finite resource theorists, are reactionaries in every sense. It is the oldest political game in the book: conjure up a threat and then grab more power and influence by saying you are the only one with the solution to the threat.

If you ever thought any of these people were in any way serious, just read this thread. They are childish, abusive and, without exception, nasty little people. Like most pre-pubescent boys - they are semi-literate and emotionally retarded.

[Metronome]

To believe that our civilization will always be (for centuries and centuries) a pretty haven of technological bliss and "peace" well, they are mistakening and their ignorance will sadly be pierced by the hard reality...

...that nothing lasts forever.

[julianj]

Dear, dear Tokyo,

You've scared him off with all your talk of finite resources. You know people in the "unreality-based" community don't want to hear about that. And I never even got to ask him where $55 oil fitted in to his theories.

You really must mind your mouth when talking to non-cultists.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Metronome', 'T')o believe that our civilization will always be (for centuries and centuries) a pretty haven of technological bliss and "peace" well, they are mistakening and their ignorance will sadly be pierced by the hard reality...

...that nothing lasts forever.

[Madpaddy]

Finite resources - oh shit, so that's what this site has been about all along.

I'm off, I've been wasting time here when I should have been feathering my nest.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')t is the technology that determines the resource, not the opposite.

[smiley]

Dear mr Smyth

I greatly appreciate that you take the time to clarify your points. In my opinion your argument that technological advances are unpredictable is flawed.

If I borrow your example 1870's London. The solution to the horse dung problem was already known. In the seventies Werner Siemens had just developed electric transport. It was first demonstrated at the Berlin world exhibition. Just a few years later the first working model drove its laps around the Brighton beach resort as it still is doing today.

If the London advisers had known where to look they would have seen that London's future would not be buried in horse manure. So predicting near term technological advances is not impossible, it is just difficult as the future is only known by few.

Similarly we can assume that the technological advances which will hit the streets in the next 20 years are in various stages of development right now.

Compared to the London planners in 1970 we have a big advantage, namely that we live in the information age. With a flick of the switch we can scan trough millions of research proposals, patents, research grants scientific publications etc.

Doing that we can conclude that we will see significant technological advances in various fields. While it is difficult to estimate the feasibility and exact impact of certain technologies we can say with reasonable certainty that we see advances in cheap solar cells, fuel cells and many other things.

What we also see is that there is no miracle cure for peakoil lurking around the corner. While the technologies that are currently under development will soften the blow, they cannot completely erase the problem of a declining oil production.

Perhaps a solution is waiting for us beyond our line of sight, that certainly is a possibility. But if our oil production peaks within the next 20 years as it now seems likely, we will have a pretty big problem on our hands. that we can say with certainty.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wordsmyth', ' ')If you ever thought any of these people were in any way serious, just read this thread. They are childish, abusive and, without exception, nasty little people. Like most pre-pubescent boys - they are semi-literate and emotionally retarded.

That's why they are attracted to way out whacko theories - and why no-one will ever take them seriously.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wordsmyth', 'P')eak oil cultists - along with all the other Malthusian finite resource theorists, are reactionaries in every sense. It is the oldest political game in the book: conjure up a threat and then grab more power and influence by saying you are the only one with the solution to the threat.

[Ludi]

What's the solution, fellow "peak oil cultists?"

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('julianj', 'D')ear, dear Tokyo,

You've scared him off with all your talk of finite resources. You know people in the "unreality-based" community don't want to hear about that. And I never even got to ask him where $55 oil fitted in to his theories.

You really must mind your mouth when talking to non-cultists.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

From the comments page on Mr. Elkin Smyth's original article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Michael Ekin Smyth', 'T')o those who keep re-iterating that resources are finite, I can only say you are totally right. But that is not my point. Technological change is the decisive factor - and, it isn't happening slowly, it is accelerating. The lithium-ion battery technology which allows us to have such tiny mobile phones was invented in 1992.
Technology determines what is, and what is not, a useful resource. When the technology changes, the needed resource changes.

[wordsmyth]

Those who claim I was abusive should read this thread. Posting a photo, commenting on my complexion, my fashion sense, abusing my business strategies - I was, and still am, amazed at the immaturity displayed.

Tokyo - where do you get that 'L' between the 'E' and 'k' in my surname? You know the old saw: say what you want but spell the name correctly. My surname is Ekin Smyth. Two words, not one.

Aaron's idea that the resource determines the technology deserves comment.

In earlier, less developed forms of society that may have been partly true - but only partly. One good example for that is the development of sailing ships. The resource was the wind and most societies - once they tired of rowing and paddling - worked out technologies to take advantage of that wind power. However they were quite varied and developed at equally varied rates. Those of you who have ever seen a display on the evolution of sailing vessels will have noted the diversity of technologies developed under the general rubric of sails.

The same applied to static wind power - developed by a variety of, but far from all, societies. In much of Europe windmills were used for direct purposes - grain milling etc. The transformation to power generation only took place relatively recently.

Similar examples of varied rates of development and varied forms of technology can be found in waterpower.

So, even when the resource is commonly recognised, we develop a variety of methods of capturing and exploiting it.

However, as we move up through layers of technological complexity, the resource tends to become less and less deterministic.

As technologies become more sophisticated and complex they become both more efficient and more adaptable. A good current example is the emergence of hybrid power trains in automobiles.

The technology determines the resource.

As the development of technologies is determined by the interaction of a vast array of market, political and social forces, including the availability of resources, it would be foolish to point to any one element that determines which path will be followed.

However, be assured, it is not simply the resource.

Others claimed I had said a variety of things that I had not said, or quoted me out of context. I haven't the time or inclination to go back over all of them.

What is important to remember is that technological advances are accelerating. Yes, they are difficult, perhaps even impossible, to predict - but that doesn't mean they are not going to occur. In a global sense, using a variety of measures - energy intensity etc - they can be assessed - but usually only in hindsight.
Market-based societies are almost infinitely adaptable. That doesn't mean ructions will not be felt - as one poster noted, suburbs (or maybe exurbs) may suffer negative effects if energy prices remain high. And?

Change is continuous and inevitable. Live with it. Enjoy it.

[wordsmyth]

Eh Tokyo - what does a row of emiticons prove?

The advance I referred to was, I believe, made by an Israeli. Earlier, lith-ion batteries were much larger.

Are you disputing the reference?

[holmes]

[/QUOTE]Change is continuous and inevitable. Live with it. Enjoy it.[QUOTE]
You have very little understanding of the events that are taking place in the world. You are obviously detached form the natural world and have very little knowledge of how much resources are needed and that are available to produce your "changes". I have no problem with change. If you have not changed the changes caused by global resource dpeltion will force you to change or die.You have very little undrerstanding of what changes are needed in order for humans to speciate and not go extinct. Your technological changes are from people that hsve spent most of their lives insulated in artifical environements being formulated and weenedon the industrial cmp
lex.

easy heat, AC, food, TV, everything at your disposal.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he technology determines the resource.

[holmes]

Aaron, my point exactly. Thanks.

[lorenzo]

That man must urgently learn that his own opinion is just as "dictatorial". Tyrants and laissez-faire capitalists have always used the same logic: don't protect workers at the workplace, since this limits our freedoms; don't allow trade unions since this limits our freedom of unlimited exploitation; don't do anything against pollution or global warning, since this is not good for our businesses, our freedoms; don't allow democratically elected leaders to exist if they don't follow our notion of freedom, instead, kill them (Allende, Lumumba...) and install freedom-dictators instead (Pinochet, Mobutu, Saddam), etc...

The tyranny of this logic is obvious.

Times have changed. Long term projections and the right to have knowledge of what awaits us, have become legitimate claims for ordinary citizens.

Bashing all those who claim their right to knowledge, no longer works.