[dohboi]

Fangorn's eme, check out the neighboring available energy thread. While we may be near all-liquids peak (a shadowy figure, in any event), we are past peak for light sweet crude and well past peak for available energy.

We may be approaching the EROEI wall, where on average more energy has to be expended to get the stuff out of the ground than is recovered in the viscous black product itself. As we approach that wall, we should expect price to leave the relatively gentle (but still catastrophic over time) exponential slope it has been on since the low of $10/bbl, and enter a jumping-off-the-cliff hyperbolic stage, where as we approach the date (whatever it is) the price approaches infinity.

I know, infinite price sounds like an absurdity, but it means we are in a whole new paradigm, and it could happen quite quickly. Tough to know exact dates though.

Let me point out that it took prices about four years ('98-2002) to double from 10 to 20, then just two years to double to 40 in '04 and again to (near) 80 in '06. We're on track to hit (at least) 160 this year, but the rate of increase recently has been much higher than the last few years and may indicate that we are entering a faster rate of doubling (steeper exponential curve) or some kind of hyperbolic curve (hitting a wall, jumping off a cliff, pick your favorite metaphor).

Of course, even sticking with doubling every year would be bad enough--320 in '10, 640 in '12...But now that looks like the optimistic scenario.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'A')s we approach that wall, we should expect price to leave the relatively gentle (but still catastrophic over time) exponential slope it has been on since the low of $10/bbl, and enter a jumping-off-the-cliff hyperbolic stage, where as we approach the date (whatever it is) the price approaches infinity.
I know, infinite price sounds like an absurdity, but it means we are in a whole new paradigm, and it could happen quite quickly.

[Sys1]

dohboi : I love your infinity price approach. I did not think about that, even if the EROEI looked also to me as a wall, I didn't linked negative EROEI to infinite price.
This economic viewpoint, meaning trying to translate EROEI to economists , is the best way to make everyone understand what it actually signifies.

[americandream]

Oil's bounced off the 50 on the daily fib and is on the way up in early Sydney trading at $141.475.

[emailking]

First of all there's no such thing as a negative EROEI. Secondly, if it goes less than 1, that won't mean the oil is unbuyable because there are other sources of energy in the world. Oil will have a finite price and people will still be able to buy it.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emailking', 'F')irst of all there's no such thing as a negative EROEI. Secondly, if it goes less than 1, that won't mean the oil is unbuyable because there are other sources of energy in the world. Oil will have a finite price and people will still be able to buy it.

[Revi]

If oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.

Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')f oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.

Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.

[catbox]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')f oil goes up over $200 a lot of people won't be able to heat their houses at all. They might still drive around a bit, but car culture will take a serious hit. I just read the CIBC report and it sounds like they are predicting 10 million less cars in the US in the next 4 years. It's really hit the mainstream. They are getting people ready for $7 gasoline already.

Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.

[frankthetank]

Yeah.... Its up at 141.69... I'm going to fill up my other car tonite, i feel a price rise very soon.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '.')..
Here it comes. The only satisfaction we can get out of this is the "told you so" factor. Some of my colleagues might hit me if I say it, but it might be worth it.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'd')ohboi : I love your infinity price approach. I did not think about that, even if the EROEI looked also to me as a wall, I didn't linked negative EROEI to infinite price.
This economic viewpoint, meaning trying to translate EROEI to economists , is the best way to make everyone understand what it actually signifies.

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'o')fftopic

in belgium we've reached an inflationrate of 5.8%
the highest since 1984
also a nice record

/offtopic

[something_awfull]

$142.58

[lowem]

It's a cloudy Monday evening, Singapore time and it looks like we're getting very close to another crude oil record again.

NYMEX CSO says it's hit $142.96.

Another 3 cents to go.

[Sketh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'W')ell, it looks like another record will be broken today.

[godq3]

Hello all. Where are you following the prices of oil? On nymex.com the prices dissapear sometimes, for example now. Where to follow them when it dissapears on nymex site? Thanks.

[dblk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('godq3', 'H')ello all. Where are you following the prices of oil? On nymex.com the prices dissapear sometimes, for example now. Where to follow them when it dissapears on nymex site? Thanks.