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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 15 Nov 2006, 23:27:09

Let's get back on topic here: Energy and the Mother of Invention
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby Omnitir » Wed 15 Nov 2006, 23:38:55

edit - sorry, off topic. I'll start a new thread some time.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 19:28:22

Bump up for the new batch of cornucopians to the board.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 20:55:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')onservation and increases in efficiency cuts sales. It reduces economic activity. It is a self-induced recession. Recessions result in job and business loss.
Energy intensity has been dropping for many economies. But there was no recession, only continued GDP growth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')Hood lord, how many times do I have to say it: energy and GDP growth do not care what the energy gets used for. Every drop of thrown away energy drives GDP growth. It isn't about contributing. Energy cares not whether it's use contributes to anything.
I don't agree with this. GDP has been growing while energy intensity has been dropping. Or to put it another way, GDP has been growing faster then energy use.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f 50% goes to waste and 50 % goes to "useful stuff" and you make 100% useful, you still use 100 kw.
So originally you used 100kw to produce 100 units of GDP. Now you halved your energy intensity, and are using 50kw to produce 100 units of GDP. You just freed up 50kw of energy for research/alternative energy generation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') keep asking where the energy will come from. I'll tell you , from the only place where you can find an abundant supply of fossil fuel energy---The American Standard of Living. Which, by the way , "Is not negotiable."
You make it sound like thats a bad thing. I would love to see America's resource usage drop at least to the level of Europe's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evon's Paradox. We are not looking to increase economic output. We are looking to find the energy to build nuclear plants, wind farms, solar arrays, etc.
As we discussed in our other thread, Jevons' Paradox is not a given.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:07:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') I don't agree with this. GDP has been growing while energy intensity has been dropping. Or to put it another way, GDP has been growing faster then energy use.


No, liquidity has been growing faster than energy use.

40% of GDP growth is financial speculation, not the real production of goods and services.

We are re-selling stuff already made. Takes a whole lot less energy to achieve GDP growth that way.

Some 700 trillion dollars of derivatives in a 40 trillion dollar economy.

Now, we have to actually produce something to balance the books.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:14:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') I don't agree with this. GDP has been growing while energy intensity has been dropping. Or to put it another way, GDP has been growing faster then energy use.

No, liquidity has been growing faster than energy use.
40% of GDP growth is financial speculation, not the real production of goods and services.
We are re-selling stuff already made. Takes a whole lot less energy to achieve GDP growth that way.
Some 700 trillion dollars of derivatives in a 40 trillion dollar economy.
Now, we have to actually produce something to balance the books.

I'm not just talking about the US. China and India, where real economic activity was taking place, have also lowered their energy intensity:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he ratio of [Indian] energy consumption to GDP fell by 18 per cent between 1990 and 1999. For China, however, the ratio is reported to have gone down as much as 46 per cent in less than a decade. Falling levels of energy consumption per unit of GDP definitely falls under the category of good news.
Energy use Per unit of GDP falls
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:14:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f 50% goes to waste and 50 % goes to "useful stuff" and you make 100% useful, you still use 100 kw.
So originally you used 100kw to produce 100 units of GDP. Now you halved your energy intensity, and are using 50kw to produce 100 units of GDP. You just freed up 50kw of energy for research/alternative energy generation.


Now, put what I said in context.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'I')f 50% goes to waste and 50 % goes to "useful stuff" and you make 100% useful, you still use 100 kw. The problem is after the conversion to 100% useful, you now get, let's say, 75% of the required energy to be useful post-peak.

Now out of this 75%, where do you get the energy to grow, re-employ those people who lost their jobs when sales dropped 25%, not to mention the new demand to bring innovations to fruition?

It all must come from this 75%, which will decline every year.

Who will absorb this loss? Where will the energy come from if you have no energy to spare?


You freed up nothing when the goal was to try and meet existing demand.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:16:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I'm not just talking about the US.


Neither am I. 40% of world GDP is financial speculation.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:18:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Falling levels of energy consumption per unit of GDP definitely falls under the category of good news.


Not when overall use is going up and supply is going down.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:54:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ow, put what I said in context.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'I')f 50% goes to waste and 50 % goes to "useful stuff" and you make 100% useful, you still use 100 kw. The problem is after the conversion to 100% useful, you now get, let's say, 75% of the required energy to be useful post-peak.
Now out of this 75%, where do you get the energy to grow, re-employ those people who lost their jobs when sales dropped 25%, not to mention the new demand to bring innovations to fruition?
It all must come from this 75%, which will decline every year.
Who will absorb this loss? Where will the energy come from if you have no energy to spare?
You freed up nothing when the goal was to try and meet existing demand.
Let me try a more specific example. A chair company currently employs 100 people, uses 100kw of energy, and produces 100 chairs. Their cheap drills are only 50% efficient, as is their other cheap equipment.
Now peak oil hits. Available energy to our chair company has dropped to 75kw. Yet demand has risen to 110 chairs. Fortunately, Mikita has stepped in and sold our chair company some quality drills that are 100% efficient. Those slick guys at Mikita are also charing the same price as the old cheap drills so the chair company simply switched suppliers with no change in the number of purchases of drills. If they were just matching last years output, that would cost them 50kw of electricity for 100 chairs produced. Since demand has increased, they now use 55kw of electricity for 110 chairs. They still need just as many people to assemble the chairs, so no layoffs. They have 20kw of extra energy to devote to researching/producing better electricity generation methods.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I'm not just talking about the US.

Neither am I. 40% of world GDP is financial speculation.
Yes, some of the GDP increase was financial speculation. But there was also an increase in "stuff" being made as well. Therefore you have lowered your energy intensity but not your GDP.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Falling levels of energy consumption per unit of GDP definitely falls under the category of good news.
Not when overall use is going up and supply is going down. But you acknowledge that energy per capita dropped and GDP went up right?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 15:57:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')They have 20kw of extra energy to devote to researching/producing better electricity generation methods.


That year. Next year? ZIP. The 75 kw has now dropped again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, some of the GDP increase was financial speculation. But there was also an increase in "stuff" being made as well. Therefore you have lowered your energy intensity but not your GDP.


40% was speculation which had nothing to do with lowering energy intensity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But you acknowledge that energy per capita dropped and GDP went up right?


Due to financial speculation and not the real production of goods and services.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 16:03:51

I'm still bummed out about not getting my flying car and 15 hour work week.

Isn't that the future we were promised?

What we got is more work than ever and Microsoft Windows.

A fundamental problem with our system, among others, is that it presupposes that people never have enough stuff. They must always be consuming more, no matter what.

I'm surprised more people don't see the obvious flaws in a system like that that is set up in a world of finite resource inputs.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby Homesteader » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 19:55:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou claimed improvments will get us out of this mess. When?

When will they start getting us out of this mess, instead of deeper into it?

That's the question. Not "are we changing" or "are we not changing."

Holy crapping crap.

8O


+1 :lol:
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby patience » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 22:10:09

Every time I see the words "new and improved", or hear how science/invention will do wonders, I am reminded that these are the same scientists/inventors that gave us DDT, MRSA, and the atomic bomb. I don't want a single bloody damned thing from these idiots. When you are in a hole, stop digging, etc...
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 00:04:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')They have 20kw of extra energy to devote to researching/producing better electricity generation methods.
That year. Next year? ZIP. The 75 kw has now dropped again.
I agree. But it you can see what happens in the first year, I don't see why you continue to argue against this very effect happening in the real world. In the real world, there is not such a large jump from 50-100% efficient in one year. Rather, the efficient gains are usually small drops in energy intensity year after year. I do not think the gains will completely offset oil depletion(or even come close), but it will offer some mitigating effect. I don't agree with your position that efficiency gains = self imposed recession.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But you acknowledge that energy per capita dropped and GDP went up right?
Due to financial speculation and not the real production of goods and services.
That is not true, there have been increases in the number of goods and services produced while at the same time a lowering of energy intensity. Here is a breakdown of the lowered energy intensity by industry:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ntensity Changes - Total Energy 1985-2004 [US]

Simple E/GDP Ratio -27%
Economy-wide -10%
Transportation -14%
Industrial -19%
Residential -9%
Commercial +12%
Energy Intensity Indicators

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') few numbers tell the story. Since the 1970s, per capita U.S. gross domestic product has grown far more quickly than energy use. "We're roughly half of where we were 30 years ago, in terms of BTUs per dollar of GDP," says Bill Prindle, deputy director of the Washington-based American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a non-profit group.
Refrigerators are three times as efficient as comparable 1980 models. Air conditioners are twice as efficient. Compact fluorescent light bulbs save money and electricity, too.
EU's 25 nations managed to generate about $12.1 trillion in GDP in 2004, more than the U.S.'s $11.6 trillion, while using 22 percent less energy. What this means is that there's lots of opportunity for the United States to become more energy efficient without sacrificing economic growth. Making The Most Of Conservation
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 00:49:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') I don't agree with your position that efficiency gains = self imposed recession.


Conservation is a self-imposed recession. It is a reduction in economic activity.

Efficiency gains = increased consumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is not true, there have been increases in the number of goods and services produced while at the same time a lowering of energy intensity.


Didn't say there hadn't been. I said 40% of GDP growth was financial speculation.

40% of 5.2% is 2.08%, so real GDP was about 3%

We have a $55 trillion dollar economy with over 700 trillion in derviatives.

Do some homework.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') few numbers tell the story. Since the 1970s, per capita U.S. gross domestic product has grown far more quickly than energy use. "We're roughly half of where we were 30 years ago, in terms of BTUs per dollar of GDP," says Bill Prindle, deputy director of the Washington-based American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a non-profit group.


Yep. We out-sourced our factories to Asia. Now that per capita energy is part of theirs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')efrigerators are three times as efficient as comparable 1980 models.


And now people have two or more or big ones.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ir conditioners are twice as efficient.

And more people have them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompact fluorescent light bulbs save money and electricity, too.

Yeah, if we still only had one bulb on the ceiling.

Jevons' Paradox at work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')U's 25 nations managed to generate about $12.1 trillion in GDP in 2004, more than the U.S.'s $11.6 trillion, while using 22 percent less energy.

And by reselling stuff already made. They, too, have a real estate crisis borne of financial speculation.

Bottom line: if we are getting so efficient, why is energy use still going up?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby Gothor » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 02:26:07

I have a problem with the entire thesis of the OP's post. Necessity is the mother of invention." While this might, and I use that word "might", very loosely, has been a proponent of invention, the majority of invention has occurred during times of wealth, and plenty, not during times of hardship and devestation like this quote suggests. I would re-write this obscure quote to read: "Greed is the mother of invention, and, re-invention." It's a quaint, but inaccurate axiom, (the old version), and certaintly not a force of nature.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 04:06:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')fficiency gains = increased consumption.
That is not a given. As we discussed in the Jevons' paradox thread, an increase in overall consumption is likely to happen for immature, disruptive technologies(introduction of the steam engine, introduction of electric motors, etc.) An increase in overall consumption from efficiency gains is not likely to happen in mature technologies, especially when applied by consumers. So unless you are expecting some new disruptive technology on the horizon, I am not sure why you are still saying that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is not true, there have been increases in the number of goods and services produced while at the same time a lowering of energy intensity.
Didn't say there hadn't been. I said 40% of GDP growth was financial speculation.
40% of 5.2% is 2.08%, so real GDP was about 3%
We have a $55 trillion dollar economy with over 700 trillion in derviatives.Do some homework.
So real GDP increased by 3% AND energy intensity per capita dropped. I think you just proved my point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') few numbers tell the story. Since the 1970s, per capita U.S. gross domestic product has grown far more quickly than energy use. "We're roughly half of where we were 30 years ago, in terms of BTUs per dollar of GDP," says Bill Prindle, deputy director of the Washington-based American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a non-profit group.
Yep. We out-sourced our factories to Asia. Now that per capita energy is part of theirs. And yet their per capita energy intensity dropped even faster than ours did.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')evons' Paradox at work. See above.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')U's 25 nations managed to generate about $12.1 trillion in GDP in 2004, more than the U.S.'s $11.6 trillion, while using 22 percent less energy. And by reselling stuff already made. They, too, have a real estate crisis borne of financial speculation.
Bottom line: if we are getting so efficient, why is energy use still going up? Because global population is still growing?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 01:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gothor', 'I') have a problem with the entire thesis of the OP's post. Necessity is the mother of invention."


That isn't the thesis of the post; this is: "energy is going to be the father of invention."
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 01:19:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')fficiency gains = increased consumption.
That is not a given. As we discussed in the Jevons' paradox thread, an increase in overall consumption is likely to happen for immature, disruptive technologies(introduction of the steam engine, introduction of electric motors, etc.) An increase in overall consumption from efficiency gains is not likely to happen in mature technologies, especially when applied by consumers. So unless you are expecting some new disruptive technology on the horizon, I am not sure why you are still saying that.


The facts speak otherwise.

Image

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause global population is still growing?


Of course, but then effciency gains aren't a long-term solution are they?

And they increase consumption beyond population growth.
Image
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