by MonteQuest » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 19:19:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'O')K, so when is the overshoot supposed to catch up to us? When is this "die off"/"de-collasilization" going to happen?
When the supply of fossil fuels can no longer keep up with demand is when the crunch comes...but that won't stop growth as the exponential momentum of overshoot continues to expand the population ...
even in the face of declining food/energy. That's the definition of overshoot.
The rate and magnitude of a die-off scenario is unknown for many reasons.
Primarily, that we don't know what the rate of oil decline will be.
Second, we are continung to try to find ways to replace the "phantom" sugar in our petri dish...furthering overshoot numbers for an even more resounding crash later with even greater collapse of the environment.
4.5% is the current decline of existing fields. Some believe it will be closer to 8% some say 2%.
Let's do some math using the Rule of 70 to determine doubling time.
70/4.5 = 15 1/2 years until oil production goes from peak to half of peak.
In todays numbers, that means 85 mbpd to 42.5 mbpd.
70/8% = 8 3/4 years.
70/2% = 35 years.
Everyone is hoping for the 2%.
Answer: No one knows.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."