[Ayoob_Reloaded]

I mean, we're basically right on the verge, right? Whether it's right now or three years or five years or even ten, you know, that doesn't really make much of a difference.

We're actually going to be the ones in the front seat of the rollercoaster on its way down. We are going to watch it happen all around us and have to figure out how we need to behave in order to have what we think of as a favorable outcome.

We are going to be some of the ones who decide how this is going to happen.

Do we decide to have mobs of millions of starving people looting and ransacking everything in sight from inside our concrete bunkers?

Do we decide to give in to an Orwellian big-brother authoritarian state that will decide everything for you in advance, and your chocolate ration will increase to 25 grams per week?

Do we let the old and the sick die off so we don't have to support them anymore?

What's this going to look like after the fact? Will we pull an Easter Island and erect SUV statues in people's front yards?

At the moment, it's looking more and more like 1984 to me than any of the other choices, except the lower classes will be tracked just as thoroughly and completely as the middle class. What middle class, really.

Wow.

I'm just totally floored by this again. It hits me every once in a while, you know? Right now, I really am just right in the middle of realizing what's coming and how it's going to affect me and my family and all my friends, and everybody I've ever worked with and all the people who live in my neighborhood right now.

[ohanian]

From a logical point of view, statements about the future is neither TRUE nor FALSE.

Thus you should treat all statements about the future carefully. You should judge each statement based of how probable it is.

To do this, you need to know, physics, chemistry, socialogy, economics, politics and environmental science.

To sum it all up:

Peak oil.

Scientist: yes it will happen

Geologist: yes it will happen

Economist: no it will NOT happen

Politician: no it will NOT happen if you vote for me in the next election

Environmentalist: no it will NOT happen, let's talk about global warming.

Bum on the street: peak what?

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'E')nvironmentalist: no it will NOT happen, let's talk about global warming.

[marko]

It seems clear that something is going to happen and that probably a lot of people will die, because the planet is beyond its carrying capacity without fairly cheap petroleum. Beyond that, we don't know exactly what will happen.

I disagree that we (or most of us) will be the ones deciding how this unfolds, except for some of the details of how it unfolds in our own lives. The really big decisions, of course, are being made by the ultrarich and their agents, the heads of government.

Assuming that they don't end everything in a nuclear war, we will be facing severe shortages of energy. In the short term, the overinflated financial bubble that is keeping the global economy afloat is likely to pop, very likely when high oil prices spark a recession and a wave of bankruptcies and defaults. This will probably bring about an economic depression in at least the Americas, East Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. (Europe, Russia, and the Middle East might get by with just a severe recession because their economies are less involved in the Anglo-Saxon and trans-Pacific debt bubbles.) This will probably involve widespread unemployment and possibly hunger. The economic collapse will probably bring a temporary drop in oil prices.

As the economies of the depressed regions begin a slow recovery, however, oil prices will rise again and prevent a true revival of the pre-peak economies. Hunger, malnutrition, and the death rate will probably increase in the urban agglomerations, though a revival of urban manufacturing, based on coal and nuclear power, will bring some relief to urban economies. Many young people are likely to move to rural areas to work as farm laborers. By mid-century if not sooner, the coal-based economy is likely to wind down as coal becomes scarce. This will probably bring more economic misery, especially in cities, and a renewed rise in the death rate.

By late in this century, most survivors will be farmers or farm laborers. What is hard to predict is how concentrated land ownership will be. Based on the constant expansion of big agribusiness in the United States and the financial vulnerability of small farmers, I would expect that most of the land will end up in few hands, and we will end up with something like feudalism and serfdom. On the other hand, we could have a social revolution that would lead to a more egalitarian and democratic outcome. The politics are much harder to predict than the economics.

[TWilliam]

Relax ayoob, everything's fine. Economy's strong, wages and employment are climbing thru the roof, energy's cheap, plentiful and unlimited, housing's dirt cheap (not to mention groceries, clothing and all the other necessities), peace and brotherly love are breaking out all over the place and Earth can support an unlimited number of fat, dumb and happy people (and even if it couldn't it wouldn't be a problem; interstellar travel's opening up any day now), so what's the problem?

Pass me a brew, fire up a fat one and let's see what's on the tube...

[Geology_Guy]

Some things just are.

The universe is just there; that’s the only way a Fedaykin
can view it and remain the master of his senses.
The universe neither threatens nor promises. It holds things
beyond our sway; the fall of a meteor, the eruption of a
spiceblow, growing old and dying. These are the realities of
the universe and they must be faced regardless of how you
feel about them. You cannot fend off such realities with
words. They will come at you in their own wordless way and
then, then you will understand what it meant by “life and
death.â€

[Trab]

Something's gonna happen. None of us know exactly what will happen. My personal feeling is that there will be a collapse of industrialized society, but I am leaning more and more towards the multi-generational collapse versus it being like the Road Warrior in 2015 or so.

We'll slowly lose the ability to enjoy some aspects of our modern society, and continue to lose them over time. Our job is to be prepared for that, adapt, and pass the knowledge on to our children. We weren't the first generation of people, and we certainly won't be the last. We just have the luck to be around at a momentous time in human civilization. Like the old Chinese curse, we are living in interesting times.

The future is an untold story at this time. I am planning on writing many more chapters, not starting on the finale.

[Geology_Guy]

I would add the following-the future is not written:

Humankind periodically goes through a speedup of its
affairs, thereby experiencing the race between the renewable
vitality of the living and the beckoning vitiation of
decadence. In this periodic race, any pause becomes luxury.
Only then can one reflect that all is permitted; all is
possible.
-The Apocrypha of Muad’Dib

[basketballjones]

you forgot:

The Church: The bible predicted it's going to happen. Well not really, but we'll take the credit anyways.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'I') mean, we're basically right on the verge, right? Whether it's right now or three years or five years or even ten, you know, that doesn't really make much of a difference.

We're actually going to be the ones in the front seat of the rollercoaster on its way down. We are going to watch it happen all around us and have to figure out how we need to behave in order to have what we think of as a favorable outcome.

We are going to be some of the ones who decide how this is going to happen.

Do we decide to have mobs of millions of starving people looting and ransacking everything in sight from inside our concrete bunkers?

Do we decide to give in to an Orwellian big-brother authoritarian state that will decide everything for you in advance, and your chocolate ration will increase to 25 grams per week?

Do we let the old and the sick die off so we don't have to support them anymore?

What's this going to look like after the fact? Will we pull an Easter Island and erect SUV statues in people's front yards?

At the moment, it's looking more and more like 1984 to me than any of the other choices, except the lower classes will be tracked just as thoroughly and completely as the middle class. What middle class, really.

Wow.

I'm just totally floored by this again. It hits me every once in a while, you know? Right now, I really am just right in the middle of realizing what's coming and how it's going to affect me and my family and all my friends, and everybody I've ever worked with and all the people who live in my neighborhood right now.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', '
')Her great-grandson, born in 2030, manages to avoid the smorgasbord of diseases, the pervasive violence, and the pandemic alcohol and drug abuse that claim half of his generation before age 30. A lucky break gets him into a technical career, safe from military service in endless wars overseas or "pacification actions" against separatist guerrillas at home. His technical knowledge consists mostly of rules of thumb for effective scavenging, cars and refrigerators are luxury items he will never own, his home lacks electricity and central heating, and his health care comes from an old woman whose grandmother was a doctor and who knows something about wound care and herbs. By the time his hair turns gray the squabbling regions that were once the United States have split apart, all remaining fuel and electrical power have been commandeered by the new governments, and coastal cities are being abandoned to the rising oceans.

For his great-granddaughter, born in 2100, the great crises are mostly things of the past. She grows up amid a ring of sparsely populated villages surrounding an abandoned core of rusting skyscrapers visited only by salvage crews who mine them for raw materials. Local wars sputter, the oceans are still rising, and famines and epidemics are a familiar reality, but with global population maybe 15% of what it was in 2000, humanity and nature are moving toward balance. She learns to read and write, a skill most of her neighbors don't have, and a few old books are among her prized possessions, but the days when men walked on the moon are fading into legend. When she and her family finally set out for a village in the countryside, leaving the husk of the old city to the salvage crews, it never occurs to her that her quiet footsteps on a crumbling asphalt road mark the end of a civilization.

[Itch]

Yes, it's quite an interesting time, and I think seeing how all of this shit unfolds has the potential to be the most entertaining event. Whether it is entertaining or not, it will certainly be the ultimate test of human mettle, and will be all the more tougher for those most dependent on what is about to be lost.

Fortunately, as TrueKaiser mentioned, there is a low probability of starving mobs ever existing. Starving people can't do shit; they sit around and starve, since they don't have the capacity to engage in activities that require a high expenditure of calories. If they tried to do so, they would only be substantially less effective than they would be with a calorie surplus, which means that the chances of failure for whatever they're trying to do is much higher. The human body is in deep shit when it is in a starving state, and it will be very difficult for some starving schmuck to do anything exhaustive -- the body simply doesn't have the energy to do so.

And then there is the thought that their might be mobs of these people. So do these people align themselves according to their condition? "Hey, we're both starving, let's go kill some asshole and eat his food." Doesn't seem likely, since that whole endeavor requires organization and clear thinking -- something that isn't there in a starving state. Starving people are the ones who get fucked, often by guys with guns and food, from what I've observed.

I also think that some 1984 situation wouldn't last very long, at least here in the US. Not only is it too large to control in such a thorough manner, but it will be increasingly difficult for the government to do so, since energy availability can only go down. If such control is to be implemented, the scale would have to be heavily reduced to only the most important areas. Of course, I do expect to see some pretty harsh government behavior in the coming years -- much worse than it is right now. But it won't last long, because all of this high tech surveilance shit requires cheap energy and maintenance. We won't have cheap energy, so the capacity to use this high tech shit will go down with it. Maintenance requires spare parts, shipping, and workers. With declining energy supplies, these things can only be reduced.

As far as the sick and old dying are concerned, they may not be able to survive at all, even with family care. There are many people who are absolutely dependent on the current machine and all of its products. Some people need expensive medicine just to stay alive, and others need state workers to take care of them. Given that most fully functional people are going to be drowning in difficulty, it may be very likely that people in prisons, crazy houses, and wheelchairs will be facing even greater pain. Then you can include fat people, junkies, including the ones on legal drugs; people who require routine medicine to stay alive, and plenty of others I've left out. I also suspect many people won't be able to emotionally cope with what we're facing, so hopefully there will be a good amount of people that end up killing themselves. I think there will be many dead people before we're at the point where food is unavailable.

If you're well-positioned, meaning that you're in a place that is far away from disease vectors; fit, disciplined, pragmatic, have clear priorities, and don't get depressed at the tought of your own death, then I think you'll be fine. All you really have to do is stay ahead of the average dumbfuck, which isn't a very difficult thing. Most of us here are miles ahead than most.

It will all be very different. If we keep going on the path we are headed right now, which seems to involve the invitation of hell on earth, then it might be a good idea to learn to laugh at things you wouldn't normally laugh at.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'R')eads like an apocalyptic Hollywood movie script, but its probably dead-on target. I try everyday to think as little as possible about it. I don't bring the subject up anymore with anyine I know or come in contact with as I used to. It is surreal and macabre and right around the corner. My hope is that it is a slow decline we're in for.

[Colorado-Valley]

I actually look for the military-industrial complex and all its corporate cronies to reestablish themselves in Fortress Persian Gulf. They'll be sitting on top of half the world's remaining oil and can maintain the ultra-modern, luxurious lifestyle that is, of course, their birthright.

For the rest of us -- including those of us in North America -- we'll be left to fend for ourselves in a polluted, energy-scarce sort of stone age.

If some of us make the mistake of surviving and actually organizing into anything that might be considered a threat, well, they'll still have their high-tech weapons and bombers to remove the problem.

[savethehumans]

Ayoob--my sympathies. It overwhelms me a lot, too. But I've always been a believer in "it's better to know than not," and the coming collapse of "civilization" hasn't changed me.

I also believe the worst isn't going to take 20-50 years to happen. I don't like thinking how 2020, or even 2015, is going to look. Thinking about 2010--is that REALLY only 5 years away?!--isn't pleasant to me, either.

Preparing is essential, of course, and I'm trying to do so. (How one person prepares for the Collapse of Civilization is a bit of a mystery to me, but I try!) I've also learned how to live in, and appreciate each day, even each hour. Waiting for the future to provide happiness never really worked; now it's not even an option! NOW counts. So NOW is where I focus. (My plans don't get out as far as a month anymore, for the most part--probably a good mind set for the coming future.)

Just hang in, prepare, and appreciate today. And remember, we in this forum are all here to keep each other's spirits calm, if not uplifted. Thanks for your post, reminding us that we AREN'T alone here....

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'F')rom a logical point of view, statements about the future is neither TRUE nor FALSE.

Thus you should treat all statements about the future carefully. You should judge each statement based of how probable it is.

To do this, you need to know, physics, chemistry, socialogy, economics, politics and environmental science.

To sum it all up:

Peak oil.

Scientist: yes it will happen

Geologist: yes it will happen

Economist: no it will NOT happen

Politician: no it will NOT happen if you vote for me in the next election

Environmentalist: no it will NOT happen, let's talk about global warming.

Bum on the street: peak what?

[bobbyald]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom a logical point of view, statements about the future is neither TRUE nor FALSE.

[stu]

Ayoob- It does seem strange doesn't it.

I do most of my posting from my university and it seems strange to look around at all the people studying for their degrees and planning for the future when the reality is that the future is very uncertain.

PO totally changed my mindset regarding societies and how they function. I can't go out drinking now without thinking how blissfully unaware people are of what keeps the lights on and the music pumping and how the beer was made and distributed to the club.

That's when I start thinking that this carefree society that lives an excess lifestyle is in for a rude awakening.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'F')rom a logical point of view, statements about the future is neither TRUE nor FALSE.

Thus you should treat all statements about the future carefully. You should judge each statement based of how probable it is.

To do this, you need to know, physics, chemistry, socialogy, economics, politics and environmental science.

To sum it all up:

Peak oil.

Scientist: yes it will happen

Geologist: yes it will happen

Economist: no it will NOT happen

Politician: no it will NOT happen if you vote for me in the next election

Environmentalist: no it will NOT happen, let's talk about global warming.

Bum on the street: peak what?

[Barbara]

stu,
I experience the same everyday.
And all this reminds me of the Titanic: all this people studying, projecting, getting big mortgages, buying new air conditioners look like those dancers on the Titanic telling themselves "They said this boat can't sink, so even if there is an HUGE hole we'll be safe".
I'm actively looking for the lifeboat, but can't stop to look at those people dancing and to feel sorry for us all.