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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:27:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'S')o, how shall we celebrate the soon-to-come $150 per barrel oil?

By getting blind, stinking, dead drunk.

Problem with that, of course, is that eventually you sober up and reality re-intrudes...


a few to take the edge off is ok now and again.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby killJOY » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:40:15

Oil up to a new record, DOW down to a two-year low.

Wow.

It's really happening.

8O
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:41:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '.')..and gas is still holding $3.89 gal?

Not for long. Wholesale RBOB gasoline is up almost eleven cents today.

This is so amazing. We forum rats have been right about everything.


What an amazing day. And oil up, what, around $8 since the lows yesterday?

Yup. We forum rats have indeed been right all along. And there's more to come.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby bodigami » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'W')hat is it with 9 cents? Highs have something against integers of ten?


...actually I posted $140.4 (last post of page 162).
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:53:54

Ebbs and flows. We knew this was coming (per Goldman Sachs and others). But even Goldman Sachs (Murti) is saying prices will fall back eventually, possibly by Christmas.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:00:06

yea because were gonna be in the reality show "Depression: Take Two!"
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Arsenal » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:04:45

I think TPTB will try to keep the wheels on this bus rolling through the elections and X-mas but things might turn really ugly after that. Esp with heating oil in the North East..

But every time I try to predict what is going to happen, events change.. Guess that is the fun thing about life.

:)


Arsenal.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:12:16

****************
To be honest, I think this increase is very modest, given the fact that:

1. the dollar dropped against the Euro today;
2. OPEC chief said today that prices will probably hit $170 by summer's end;
3. Libya announced possible output cuts today.

Frankly, oil should have increased by about $10 today, considering all of the above. It seems to be a reluctant increase. I think investors realize that demand destruction is sinking in.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:19:08

What little real demand destruction the WORLD can muster will be trumped by decline at some point.

That is when the real fun begins and that is what even seemingly bright people cannot fathom.

I don't think we have that long to wait.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:30:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'F')rankly, oil should have increased by about $10 today, considering all of the above.

Doesn't bode well for tomorrow, does it? Look for another substantial jump.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Schadenfreude » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:51:37

The market has been acting like it was encountering a lot of resistance. Traders must have a whole shitload of sell orders right at the $140 level.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 16:58:24

This is a very tepid "breakout". Seems like its weighted down. It's back down under $140. I think we could be seeing the effects of demand destruction on the futures market. Seems like the price trend is down, not up.

Mind you, hurricane season is coming up, and that could send prices skyrocketing if we get even a moderate storm in the Gulf. Also, if (when) financial conditions worsen in the US, the dollar will slide further. And that will send oil higher, of course. I think that's really the key factor.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:04:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'T')his is a very tepid "breakout". Seems like its weighted down. It's back down under $140. I think we could be seeing the effects of demand destruction on the futures market. Seems like the price trend is down, not up.

Mind you, hurricane season is coming up, and that could send prices skyrocketing if we get even a moderate storm in the Gulf. Also, if (when) financial conditions worsen in the US, the dollar will slide further. And that will send oil higher, of course. I think that's really the key factor.


We wish...........
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby canis_lupus » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:08:39

My .02

It seems to me that oil prices are trudging higher. I don't know if we'll ever have a breakout (except for hurricanes, etc.). I get the feeling that as we click off the weeks, oil is going to steadily close higher -- sometimes more, sometimes less.

How do you eat an elephant?

One bite at a time.

FWIW
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:09:12

Rather a brief pause and extremely small retreat on the oil price in the last couple of weeks before setting a new record today.

Reality is setting in for stocks......tomorrow could be bad in the market.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:23:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'F')rankly, oil should have increased by about $10 today, considering all of the above.

Doesn't bode well for tomorrow, does it? Look for another substantial jump.


Yeah. It could be interesting. It's been simmering for a while and building up pressure. It could hit the high $140's tomorrow, or it could drop back below $139, or almost anything in between.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:23:44

The Great Scam
By Arthur Shaw. Exclusive to Axis of Logic
Jun 12, 2008, 16:16




Speculators at petroleum exchanges in New York City, London, and Singapore relentlessly drive up the price of a barrel of oil to ever higher levels. These speculators are nothing but underhanded imperialist thieves manipulating "demand" for oil within the context of the demand and supply fundamentals.

Speculators play the chief role behind high oil prices. But there are other factors, such the value of the dollar and geopolitical tensions resulting from imperialist aggressions. The principal aggression is in Iraq where the US aggression has cost 2,000,000 Iraqi lives and where the imperialists steal 2.3 million barrels of oil everyday. The threats of aggression (mainly against Iran and Venezuela) also contribute significantly to the problem. To some extent, the speculators use these "other factors" as a cover or a pretext for their stealing at the petroleum exchanges.

When we talk about the real demand for oil, we're talking about the numbers of barrels of oil the world economy needs every day in order to run.

That number is more or less about 87 million barrels per day. So, 87 million barrels per day, more or less, is what the world, at the moment, really "demands" on a daily basis.

87 million barrels a day is more or less what the world produces or supplies because that's what the world really asks for.
Enter the imperialist thieves ... mostly investment banks, hedge funds, oil companies, other institutional investors, and some big individual players ... operating through floor traders at the three major petroleum exchanges (New York Mercantile Exchange, London Petroleum Exchange (owned by US imperialists) and Singapore Stock Exchange which is much smaller than the other two.

These imperialist thieves submit orders for oil to these exchanges. These orders are called, among other things, "futures" and they represent at least 15 times greater volume than what the world really "demands" or wants; thus, artificially creating a staggering but bogus imbalance between supply and demand for oil.

This multiple of about 15 is not real demand, rather it is a phony "paper" demand, creating an illusory imbalance between supply and demand, pumping up the price of oil.

15 X 87 million bpd = 1,300,000,000 bpd

So, on "paper," the three petroleum markets are "demanding" 1.3 billion barrels everyday when the world only needs or demands 87 million barrels a day - and the price of a barrel soars.

If the world could or would produce 1.3 billion barrels a day, the world would drown in oil. There would be no place to put it.
This oil scam demonstrates the irrationality of the so-called "free" market, but the imperialist thieves make a killing everyday in this "free" market for oil.

Goldman Sachs is perhaps the biggest and most aggressive imperialist thief among the investment banks. Exxon-Mobil, of course, is the biggest among the oil companies. Thousands of hedge funds [often fronts for banks and oil companies] managing capital for the wealthy are running amuck in the oil market.

Driving some of the imperialists to steal, especially the investment banks, is something more than their natural and compulsive avarice. Many of them have of late, suffered catastrophic losses with mortgage-back securities like the so-called "subprimes". Others have fallen through the floor with unbelievable losses in currency trading. So, they look to oil swindles to recoup some or all of their unbearable losses.

Once again, the scam with oil futures and other related financial instruments is sometimes called "speculation" in the oil market.
To get away with the scam, the imperialist thieves tell their cappie [that is, "capitalist"] press or media to spread lies, blaming OPEC for the imbalance between supply and demand for oil. Their friends in the cappie media blame the prices on production cutbacks. They also tell an assortment of lies about China and India using up too much oil or other fabrications the media cooks up itself.

When the truth about the gigantic scam periodically breaks through the pile of lies emitted by the cappie press, the imperialist thieves point their fingers at the floor traders who are hustling futures contracts at the petroleum exchanges in New York, London and Singapore. These floor traders are no more than highly compensated foot soldiers and patsies of the imperialist thieves.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Niagara » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:36:07

Armageddon, I enjoy reading your posts but this article is bogus. It's way too oversimplified. It doesn't mention the corresponding downward pressure on oil prices when the speculators unwind their long positions.

The CEO of the NYMEX was on CNBC a few weeks back. He pointed out that half the speculators are long and half are short, so they basically cancel each other out.

Speculation has very little to do with the current price, it's simple fundamentals.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 17:46:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'A')rmageddon, I enjoy reading your posts but this article is bogus. It's way too oversimplified. It doesn't mention the corresponding downward pressure on oil prices when the speculators unwind their long positions.

The CEO of the NYMEX was on CNBC a few weeks back. He pointed out that half the speculators are long and half are short, so they basically cancel each other out.

Speculation has very little to do with the current price, it's simple fundamentals.



Yeah, the dude really doesn't understand the supply/demand issue. The futures market is driving up the prices faster than it should, but either way, the prices are going to continue rising. There may be a little demand destruction happening in the US, but decline rates should keep this from having any real oil surplus.
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Re: Another Record ($140.39)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 18:12:15

I think it's pretty bogus to equate the sale of a futures contract as having the same economic effect as the sale of a barrel of oil. Paper demand gets met with paper supply that is just as easy to create out of thin air. If the futures market was overpriced, supply should be starting to overwhelm demand. The price of the futures contracts would tank as they approach expiration because no one would want future delivery. All the speculators would lose their shirts. The only way that a speculator can affect the supply demand equation for the physical product is to buy and hoard the physical product. The only place that's happening is the SPR. Otherwise, stores of physical oil are lower than they were a year ago.
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Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
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