by Whitecrab » Mon 07 Mar 2005, 20:39:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'F')rom what I can tell from reading the Bottomless Well in the bookstore, his basic premise is that human ingenuity is boundless therefore it doesn't matter that oil is finite. I think the easiest counter to that is to point out the multiple civilizations in the past failed to survive even though they had just as much human ingenuity as we do. However the easist counter argument probably isn't the best; any reference to civilization failing immediately labels you a crackpot. On a business news channel, heavy reference to facts such as the recent loss of spare capacity,higher oil prices, and the inability of many major international oil companies to replace their reserves would be a better counter to the "faith based" argument.
Just my two cents,
There is the "we've always moved to a better resource...what's better than oil?" argument. EROI of 100 originally. No viable alternatives on the horizon. Inelastic demand. etc. etc. Most factors of human enginuity are drops in the bucket (tar sands never > 5mb/d, non-conventional oil has little effect on the peak date, coal-to-oil is decades in lead time and coal is rather finite, etc. etc.)
Matt'll do fine, as long as he plays to the audience. Make sure to give them the link to your webpage or advice to google PO in the last moments. The more who look, the better.