[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'H')owever, this extra capacity will probably be answered by recovering economies and a return to high oil prices within a couple of years. I think it should work like a yo-yo for a while, with each recession deeper and deeper and each recovery more and more shallow.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut prices could fall to $100 a barrel by the end of this year if

*Saudi Arabia makes good on its pledge to increase production;

*global demand eases;

* the Federal Reserve begins lifting short-term interest rates;

* the dollar rallies, and

*investors stop pouring money into the oil market.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'M')y guess is GS doesn't understand the net-export theory. (Not really a theory). Even big shots like him who are aware of the problems associated with a global peak seem to have huge blind spots including being totally ignorant of the implications of net-exports peaking.

[Eli]

I think Matt is correct. GS maybe a smart guy and he is definitely an expert when it comes to making money off of the currency trade but he may know very little about oil production.

Robert Hirsch has actually look into the numbers my money is on him.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t could collapse. It really could, but then again it might not.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ') Once we hit the peak of oil production, we are likely to see an inverted version of this pattern--7 years of economic contraction followed by 1-2 years of economic growth.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')RT the OP...Then GS should be short oil...I'll bet he is not.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')RT the OP...Then GS should be short oil...I'll bet he is not.

[HEADER_RACK]

One major hurricane in the GoM will quell any hopes of seeing $100 a barrel of oil ever again.

[emeraldg40]

America has widget factories? Thought they had moved to slums

of India? If they pay those workers 1/2 cent an hour today, they

will cut them to 1/4 of a cent tomorrow no? Maybe you meant if

Americans quit going out to eat etc that the service industry will

lose jobs? That I can see. The widgets are long gone.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')irst of all, I think these two articles have got it mostly wrong, especially concerning their analysis of oil. But in the sprit of free speech, I posted them to show just how misleading public media and especially the business media are about our energy situation.

This kind of misinformation is going to make the debate of how to adjust to the post peak oil world very difficult. Transitioning away from liquid fuels is hard enough; intentionally misleading the public is going to make it almost impossible to reach a consensus as to what to do.

As to the superbubble, depending on what happens in the next financial crisis and/or mideast war, we may see $300 oil or $100 oil within a year - that is if oil is still trading on financial markets.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')oros predictis a "superbubble"

Greg Ip
21 Jun 2008 14:42

He has cried wolf many times, but this time George Soros says the beast is really upon us.

Mr. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, is best-known as a speculator, philanthropist and political activist. He made a fortune by doing things such as betting against Britain's currency in 1992 and Thailand's in 1997.

In essence, he argues that markets don't simply reflect fundamental determinants but can change those determinants in a way that causes asset prices to go to extremes. In his latest book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets," he argues a "superbubble" has developed in the past 25 years and it is now collapsing.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emeraldg40', 'A')merica has widget factories? Thought they had moved to slums

of India? If they pay those workers 1/2 cent an hour today, they

will cut them to 1/4 of a cent tomorrow no? Maybe you meant if

Americans quit going out to eat etc that the service industry will

lose jobs? That I can see. The widgets are long gone.

[DantesPeak]

I read the articles I posted carefully again, in case I may have missed something. But again, the concept of an "oil bubble" is taken as a reality as much as the sky is blue - even some persons excepting oil to rise in price where quoted as calling oil in a bubble too.

Newspeak has taken over. I guess the concept of a 'bubble' goes down easier than trying to explain the collapse of major oil fields like Cantarell, increased domestic energy demand within oil exporters, declining EROEI with heavier crudes and offshore drilling, etc..

Yes the Grand Illusion still lives. Speculators are to be blamed for declining oil output and plunging net imports. Now if we could only find where those nasty speculators are hiding all their oil.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'E')very stock is overvalued.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'E')very stock is overvalued.

[truecougarblue]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')But again, the concept of an "oil bubble" is taken as a reality as much as the sky is blue - even some persons excepting oil to rise in price where quoted as calling oil in a bubble too.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ') Once we hit the peak of oil production, we are likely to see an inverted version of this pattern--7 years of economic contraction followed by 1-2 years of economic growth.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')Maybe. The future is uncertain. That's what makes living fun. The economy might just stumble on with contractions every single year, but like some old pathetic bum it just won't ever seem to die.

[TheDude]

Two bills up in Congress:

Curbing Runaway Speculation In Oil Markets

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o curb excess and unregulated speculation, the Oil Price Protection Act, which is authored by Congressman John Larson (D-CT), would limit participation in these markets to those who can either produce the product or take the product into physical inventory. The bill would make it unlawful for a person to enter into or to execute any transaction in crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, or diesel fuel that is excluded under the Commodity Exchange Act unless the person has the ability to accept physical delivery of the product or is capable of producing or manufacturing the product. The bill would also require divestiture of all holdings by unqualified persons within 60 days of enactment of the bill.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')wo bills up in Congress:

Curbing Runaway Speculation In Oil Markets

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o curb excess and unregulated speculation, the Oil Price Protection Act, which is authored by Congressman John Larson (D-CT), would limit participation in these markets to those who can either produce the product or take the product into physical inventory. The bill would make it unlawful for a person to enter into or to execute any transaction in crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, or diesel fuel that is excluded under the Commodity Exchange Act unless the person has the ability to accept physical delivery of the product or is capable of producing or manufacturing the product. The bill would also require divestiture of all holdings by unqualified persons within 60 days of enactment of the bill.