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How will colleges fare?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 09:49:29

I should have been more clear.

I think the study of non-essential subjects is vital to the human spirit. I take classes in philosophy and art history in order to broaden my horizons and gain a deeper understanding of the world (also because I need to fill out a requirement on my transcript). I enjoy these classes and they make me happy.

However, I do not hold any illusions that a person should borrow $100,000 in order to study philosophy. It is not a rational decision. Happiness is great but it's hard to be happy if you're hungry and homeless.

If you think about a future in which Middle Class families have to make tough choices about which child to send to college and what they should study...I can't see them letting Timmy study Egyptology while Jimmy is denied the chance to study electrical engineering.

No one could argue that the world needs Egyptologists more than it needs electrical engineers.

If you can afford to do both, more power to ya. But if you have to make a choice...it's a no-brainer.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby coyote » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 17:09:03

There have been several excellent points raised here, and I can see the thread as a whole expressing my general views on the subject. (This is a critically interesting topic for me, since I am a teacher and I have staked a lot of my future on the belief that colleges will be around for some time.)

I agree with Cog's opinion that community colleges will do well, for various reasons mentioned in this thread. The cost of four-year universities will inevitably rise (from already insane amounts), and many courses of study that they offer will come to seem frivolous to families struggling to stay afloat. As Tyler says, they will be for the wealthy. But I believe that most courses of study that will interest most students in the future will be more practical; and many practical fields of knowledge may be learned in lower division studies, especially if some of the non-essential "filler" classes are carved out of the curriculum. In other words, if community colleges start looking more like the trade schools mos mentioned.

The obvious curriculum survivors of the paradigm shift -- engineering, chemistry etc. -- will not be the only ones. The practical arts do not die when the economy sours -- in fact, my belief is exactly the opposite, the higher our economy has soared (or appeared to), the more these subjects have been cut from schools. Live acoustic music, art, live theater -- these pursuits may just experience a renaissance when TV, movie theaters and CDs become a prohibitively expensive diversion and real communities are forming to support them. In addition, I expect and hope for a return of traditional artisan industry, furniture making, etc. Community colleges that emphasize vocational studies should do well.

Rather optimistic of me, I know. :)
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby archaen » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 01:58:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'S')he is still set on chemistry or chemical engineering.



Be careful and make sure she wasting time at the Community College before she needs to transfer over. I know for my chemical engineering degree you were expected to already have your English credits done and started out in physics and chemistry for scientists and engineers that were not offered at the junior colleges around town. Plus very few junior colleges offer the introductory classes in the Engineering fields. It's best to sign a contract with the university before hand so they have to accept the credits she has when she transfers over. This also lets you see what she can take that will count towards a specific degree.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 09:10:26

The Illinois university system has a website that covers all courses taught in community colleges and their transferability to the university system. The junior college in question is closely assosicated with the nearby university. Her English requirements will be complete before she leaves high shcool. There is a recipocal agreement that Honors English in her junior and senior years of high school will count as college credit at the university. Only $155/3credit hrs of college credit. A bargain really.

She is enjoying her first exposure to college in between her junior and senior year in high school. Summer school is more laid back. I don't know if I will continue the junior college thing after she graduates from high school in 2009. By that time, she would be ready to go to university in the fall of that year, she will have around 24 semester hrs of college credit . A lot depends on peak oil and where the economy is at.

My job is land surveying is somewhat sensitive to huge increases in fuel and the state of the economy. I haven't noticed any downturn in our government contracts yet but I have noticed a downturn in new private construction in the area.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby graham » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 10:04:23

Hi i'm new to this board and was wondering how architecture (particuarly enviromental design) will fare? Ill probably take an M/Sc in eniromental design for my part 2
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby coyote » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 12:57:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', 'H')i i'm new to this board and was wondering how architecture (particuarly enviromental design) will fare? Ill probably take an M/Sc in eniromental design for my part 2

Hi graham. I've seen a lot of interest here for "new urbanist" walkable communities, as well as energy-efficient homes in general, thermal mass designs, bermed structures and so on. I'm sure you're aware of these better than I am, take a look around the boards, there's been some discussion about them around here. Also, for now at least, the corporate trend is still strongly in a "green" direction. I think modifying existing designs to incorporate greater fuel efficiency, rooftop gardens, solar power and so on will remain in demand for a while.

Architecture as a whole may do poorly, as I think not nearly as many structures will be built, but if you focus on environmental design in particular, including modification of existing structures, I think you'll be fine. I'm not an architect, so take that with a grain of salt. And always be aware that your potential clients may have a lot less money in the future.

I think these discussions are great. TWAWKI may come to an end, but it might take its time. What if we prepare for a hard crash, but get the slow slide instead? Best prepare for both. What professions will be available to the peak oil-aware who are preparing/schooling now?

Welcome graham.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 01:03:55

Well, let's see. Let's go back deep into the pre-fossil fuel age. What was the core of instruction in the late middle ages and renaissance, and really up until the ff age really got going. Oh, it was the classics, Greek and Latin. Beyond these there were the trivium: grammar, logic and rhetoric; and the quadrivium: music, astronomy, geometry, and arithmetic.

We're all guessing here, and projecting our own wishes and values onto an unknowable future, but there is as good an argument that we will return to a curriculum which is at least 4/7 language and music (or other arts) as move to one where such "silly" pursuits will be banished from the schools.

As they have fewer and fewer electrons to engineer, electrical engineers may well find themselves out of a job.

Watching their entire society implode may lead many to start asking deep questions about history, values, society, humanity...and they might not find many answers to those questions in chemistry text books. (I love chemistry, by the way--nearly majored in it.)

I do think that there could be an acceleration of the winnowing we have already seen in higher ed. But if there are no jobs, many people may choose to go back to school, if nothing else, just to do something productive with their time.

Of course we could well end up with a Pol Pot type situation, where the masses turn on all knowledge as dangerous, burn down libraries and kill teachers... There is a deep and strong strain of anti-intellectualism in the US, and it could easily be ignited by a demagogue.

So who knows. But I think educational institutions would do well to at least think about and discuss how they may have to adjust to the new reality. I know of none that have even started the discussion in a serious way. Does anyone know of one?
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby graham » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 07:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', 'H')i i'm new to this board and was wondering how architecture (particuarly enviromental design) will fare? Ill probably take an M/Sc in eniromental design for my part 2

Hi graham. I've seen a lot of interest here for "new urbanist" walkable communities, as well as energy-efficient homes in general, thermal mass designs, bermed structures and so on. I'm sure you're aware of these better than I am, take a look around the boards, there's been some discussion about them around here. Also, for now at least, the corporate trend is still strongly in a "green" direction. I think modifying existing designs to incorporate greater fuel efficiency, rooftop gardens, solar power and so on will remain in demand for a while.

Architecture as a whole may do poorly, as I think not nearly as many structures will be built, but if you focus on environmental design in particular, including modification of existing structures, I think you'll be fine. I'm not an architect, so take that with a grain of salt. And always be aware that your potential clients may have a lot less money in the future.

I think these discussions are great. TWAWKI may come to an end, but it might take its time. What if we prepare for a hard crash, but get the slow slide instead? Best prepare for both. What professions will be available to the peak oil-aware who are preparing/schooling now?

Welcome graham.



Unfortunatley, in most cases, it is virtually impossible to adapt existing buildings to true zero carbon secifications. For instance how do you super insulate 2 foot thick stone walls? How can you incorporate passive solar design into buildings that face the wrong way? How do you adapt listed buildings? To adapt existing structures usually requires virtual complete demolision and rebuild.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby coyote » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 19:07:49

In that case, graham, it sounds like it may be a bit tougher than I was imagining. I don't know how much money there will be for new structures in the future. Damn crystal ball's busted and I can't seem to get it to work no matter how much I glare at it.

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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 20:55:37

You people are being far too nice.

Somebody please pull up a course catalog from Harvard circa 1800 and check out the majors.

In the next 15 years, you're going to see a precipitous drop in the following majors:

sociology
psychology
sports medicine
african studies
[any ethnicity] studies
communication
journalism
history
poly sci
women's studies [thank f---ing God]
language
any other BS major that has no use in society.


The cheap energy age has allowed us to send our kids out of the idiot factories and into a 4 year deferral of personal responsibility.

For many, it's 5 or 6 years.

It would be humorous to return to my old school just to find out who's been on campus the longest. There has got to be some 25 year old who's been matriculating for 7-10 years, getting pussy on Government backed loans, as it were. Hell, why grow up? That guy might be the smartest cat there. Screw growing up. At college, you work 8 hours a week to maintain a C average, you drink 7 nights a week, you have constant access to loose women, you have no responsibility beyond making sure the fridge is stocked with beer, and it's all a free ride - at least for the 7 years you are there.

Why worry about the piper? The piper appears to be choking on his pipe.

Let's not kid around.

The majors I listed are worthless.

Take the million or so psych grads each year and put them in a pile and you've got a pile of people with worthless degrees.

Sociology? Even worse.

The only reason these majors are offered is because some dumb ass kid will take the loans and get the degree.

Walk through the mall. It's wall to wall with 4 year grads in . . .

some sh-t.

You won't find a lot of chem Es or accounting majors working in retail sales.

Good riddance.

College has become a sad joke.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby socrates1fan » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 21:36:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', 'H')i i'm new to this board and was wondering how architecture (particuarly enviromental design) will fare? Ill probably take an M/Sc in eniromental design for my part 2

Hi graham. I've seen a lot of interest here for "new urbanist" walkable communities, as well as energy-efficient homes in general, thermal mass designs, bermed structures and so on. I'm sure you're aware of these better than I am, take a look around the boards, there's been some discussion about them around here. Also, for now at least, the corporate trend is still strongly in a "green" direction. I think modifying existing designs to incorporate greater fuel efficiency, rooftop gardens, solar power and so on will remain in demand for a while.

Architecture as a whole may do poorly, as I think not nearly as many structures will be built, but if you focus on environmental design in particular, including modification of existing structures, I think you'll be fine. I'm not an architect, so take that with a grain of salt. And always be aware that your potential clients may have a lot less money in the future.

I think these discussions are great. TWAWKI may come to an end, but it might take its time. What if we prepare for a hard crash, but get the slow slide instead? Best prepare for both. What professions will be available to the peak oil-aware who are preparing/schooling now?

Welcome graham.



Unfortunatley, in most cases, it is virtually impossible to adapt existing buildings to true zero carbon secifications. For instance how do you super insulate 2 foot thick stone walls? How can you incorporate passive solar design into buildings that face the wrong way? How do you adapt listed buildings? To adapt existing structures usually requires virtual complete demolision and rebuild.


Not really the same thing but..
How do you think modern architecture will fare in economic crisis?
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby emeraldg40 » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 21:58:51

8O
For those that still want an education for themselves and/or their

college age kids in a "Wheres the oil?" world......I have taken many

courses on-line, on cable tv and even a few on campus over the

years. Im a CTU online student and I love it. My classmates are

from all over the place...including soldiers in Iraq. There is a great

bunch of kids coming up behind us, I hope the world will be as

great for them as it has been for this ol hippie :)
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby graham » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 05:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', 'H')i i'm new to this board and was wondering how architecture (particuarly enviromental design) will fare? Ill probably take an M/Sc in eniromental design for my part 2

Hi graham. I've seen a lot of interest here for "new urbanist" walkable communities, as well as energy-efficient homes in general, thermal mass designs, bermed structures and so on. I'm sure you're aware of these better than I am, take a look around the boards, there's been some discussion about them around here. Also, for now at least, the corporate trend is still strongly in a "green" direction. I think modifying existing designs to incorporate greater fuel efficiency, rooftop gardens, solar power and so on will remain in demand for a while.

Architecture as a whole may do poorly, as I think not nearly as many structures will be built, but if you focus on environmental design in particular, including modification of existing structures, I think you'll be fine. I'm not an architect, so take that with a grain of salt. And always be aware that your potential clients may have a lot less money in the future.

I think these discussions are great. TWAWKI may come to an end, but it might take its time. What if we prepare for a hard crash, but get the slow slide instead? Best prepare for both. What professions will be available to the peak oil-aware who are preparing/schooling now?

Welcome graham.



Unfortunatley, in most cases, it is virtually impossible to adapt existing buildings to true zero carbon secifications. For instance how do you super insulate 2 foot thick stone walls? How can you incorporate passive solar design into buildings that face the wrong way? How do you adapt listed buildings? To adapt existing structures usually requires virtual complete demolision and rebuild.


Not really the same thing but..
How do you think modern architecture will fare in economic crisis?


Very badly! There isn't going to be the power available to make concrete, steel and glass in the quantities required, also those giant glass walls loose/gain heat like theres no tommorrow. Modernist architecture is 'oil architecture' in my book, and most of my collegues are completely deluded, thinking being green is simply slapping a few solar panels onto existing building types. Future buildings will be smaller and made from 'primitive' materials-
wood, straw, bamboo, earth, turf, paper/card, they will be very simple (true minimalism), and possibly organic in shape(?). Tradition wont fare much better than modernism though as its just as unsutiable.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 14:10:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('graham', 'f')ew solar panels onto existing building types. Future buildings will be smaller and made from 'primitive' materials-
wood, straw, bamboo, earth, turf, paper/card, they will be very simple (true minimalism), and possibly organic in shape(?). Tradition wont fare much better than modernism though as its just as unsutiable.


Ah, so it's back to mud huts? :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Terran » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 14:46:24

I would be hoping that schools with agricultural programs should do well, since we do need agriculture to feed people.

I do plan on going to a agricultural school, where the basis is in agriculture, and vet.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby Ghog » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 20:04:46

Cashmere, I love this quote:

'The cheap energy age has allowed us to send our kids out of the idiot factories and into a 4 year deferral of personal responsibility.'



Anyway I am currently studying 'Electronics Engineering Technician' via the Internet as I still feel small electronics will have a future in the PO World. Anything related to mass production/scale will vanish along with education that has no 'survival' benefit.

My opinion is that any PO-useful (agriculture, crafts, efficiency, etc) skill taught at a learning institution will do well, but a large number of colleges will fold. Considering many are more about athletics than education, they won't be missed.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby cephalotus » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 08:04:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '.').. There has got to be some 25 year old who's been matriculating for 7-10 years, getting pussy on Government backed loans, as it were. Hell, why grow up?...


hmmm, I started working when I just became 30(!), until that I had travelled through the world, studied for 6 1/2 years and really had a very nice life.
I never got a cent from my government and I didn't have any debt when starting to work.

In my opinion the social studies are VERY important to a society.

I'm now an engineer (energy sector) btw and I plan to live another healthy 60 years and don't want to die with a heart attack at age 50 as it happens to so many people that are "optimizing" and speeding up their career and devote their life to their work.

I have to work for around 40h a week with ~5-6 weeks free, that's more than enough in my opinion.
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Re: How will colleges fare?

Unread postby HappyFace » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 10:30:40

The question was asked: will colleges fare? The short answer if, of course, as long as folks perceive a desire and need for higher education. Plus, college and the military both keep young people off the streets in times of crisis, and the buildings already exist and are suitable for little else (not enough bathrooms for habitation, no facilities for industry, poorly organized for business, etc).

In the longer run, whether 'higher education' comes to mean sociology or advanced bee-keeping is any body's guess. Also as graham suggested lots of college buildings are dumb dumb dumb. But then the cities around them are also dumb dumb dumb. Which ones succumbs first is a good question.
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