[frankthetank]

marketwatch
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso, billionaire investor George Soros told delegates at a Jeddah economic conference that moves by Middle East oil exporters as well as Russia to switch revenue from dollars to euros is behind the U.S. currency's weakness, Reuters said. Soros said a further rise in crude could therefore hit the dollar, the report said.

[Jack]

As you suggest, it has been going on for some time. Inflation is far more significant than the official numbers suggest.

But inflation is an effective tool whereby a nation can default on its debts - both internal and external. I suspect we're using that tool presently.

[frankthetank]

another view
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')ros, dubbed "The Man who broke the Bank of England" for his role in betting the pound would drop in 1992, said he was not predicting further falls in the value of the dollar. But he linked its fate to the price of oil.
"The higher the price of oil, the more the dollars there are to be switched to euro (so) the strength of oil will reinforce the weakness of the dollar," he said. "That is only one factor, but I think there is such a relationship."

[Kingcoal]

As long as China and Japan remain tied closely to the dollar, the US will suffer minimal damage. The US doesn't buy a whole lot from Europe and what it does buy is available from Asia also. As dollars become worthless in Europe, EU exporters will suffer greatly. Of course we all know that the US is not an exporter for all practical purposes, so it doesn't care what the dollar/Euro exchange rate is.

The big problem for the US is oil. Oil isn't available from China or Japan. My prediction is that the US will go through a series of "downsizings" to cut down on consumption and that won't be a matter of choice. The good news is that the US could probably cut 1/3 of it's consumption with little pain, 1/2 with pain and even more with a lot of pain. I say this because the US is so fantastically friviolous in it's consumption compared to, say, Europe.

[roccman]

Link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after decades of overspending.

"We have borrowed an awful lot of money and now the bill is coming to us," he said during a lecture at the New York University, also adding that the war on terror "has thrown America out of the rails."

[Ludi]

He seems overly optimistic about China. China is having trouble meeting their demand for energy. This will definitely slow economic growth there.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')e seems overly optimistic about China. China is having trouble meeting their demand for energy. This will definitely slow economic growth there.

[Revi]

Great... George Soros has all his money from wrecking other currencies.

[Kylon]

Eastern Europeans ROCK! Especially their women:-D If I had the money and resources, I'd marry an Eastern European women right now. But I don't need to tell you that do I?

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after decades of overspending.

[manu]

Another jack ass jumps on the band wagon. Look lemmings, rocks!

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', '
')If I had the money and resources, I'd marry an Eastern European women right now.

[The_Virginian]

He seems to take the middle view, but IMHO is not wise to call the term "peak oil" incorrect:


Soros on OIL PRICES

Go to the video on right called "soros on oil prices"

[edit - topic moved from Peak Oil Discussion to Energy News Forum - markl]

[DantesPeak]

First of all, I think these two articles have got it mostly wrong, especially concerning their analysis of oil. But in the sprit of free speech, I posted them to show just how misleading public media and especially the business media are about our energy situation.

This kind of misinformation is going to make the debate of how to adjust to the post peak oil world very difficult. Transitioning away from liquid fuels is hard enough; intentionally misleading the public is going to make it almost impossible to reach a consensus as to what to do.

As to the superbubble, depending on what happens in the next financial crisis and/or mideast war, we may see $300 oil or $100 oil within a year - that is if oil is still trading on financial markets.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Soros predictis a "superbubble" by Greg Ip, 21 Jun 2008 14:42:

He has cried wolf many times, but this time George Soros says the beast is really upon us.

Mr. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, is best-known as a speculator, philanthropist and political activist. He made a fortune by doing things such as betting against Britain's currency in 1992 and Thailand's in 1997.

In essence, he argues that markets don't simply reflect fundamental determinants but can change those determinants in a way that causes asset prices to go to extremes. In his latest book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets," he argues a "superbubble" has developed in the past 25 years and it is now collapsing.

[essex]

For oil to collapse in price the world economy will have to completely collapse first. In my opinion while oil may fluctuate in price the trend is up and I think Hirsch on CNBC predicting oil at $500 plus in 3 - 5 years is much more likely to be right, hence a hyperinflationary depression is on the way.

[Kingcoal]

Actually, I think there will be a bounce, but for different reason. Both China and India, with economies built around "in-sourced" manufacturing out sourced from the USA and other countries, will hit a roadblock with oil prices. Their labor costs are almost zero already and their margins are ultra slim. With no room in their profit margin for rising commodity costs, they will pass them on to the US, who is already in a recession and diverting money away from Walmart into their gas tanks and grocery shopping. Right now there are big deals on TVs and other electronics because US consumers have cut back on that spending considerably and it will only get worse. The Chinese in particular, will see declining orders as stuff sits on shelves in US stores. Less manufacturing production means less demand for commodities such as oil. China seems to make most of the worlds plastic, which has ethylene as it's primary ingredient. Declining commodity (oil) consumption in China, combined with demand destruction in the US will ease oil prices considerably in the short run.

However, this extra capacity will probably be answered by recovering economies and a return to high oil prices within a couple of years. I think it should work like a yo-yo for a while, with each recession deeper and deeper and each recovery more and more shallow.

[jlw61]

WOW! Prices will crash all the way to $100 a barrel? We're Saved! Get out the party hats! That means gas prices will plummet to the $2.80 to $3.20 range and only 25% of the farmers will go bankrupt by this time next year! Inflation will stay below 10% (except for food) and gold will crash to $750.

Wow, I was beginning to worry.

[heroineworshipper]

Dubya better make another speech about Iran, quick.

[MattSavinar]

My guess is GS doesn't understand the net-export theory. (Not really a theory). Even big shots like him who are aware of the problems associated with a global peak seem to have huge blind spots including being totally ignorant of the implications of net-exports peaking.

[Revi]

It could collapse. It really could, but then again it might not. People seem happy enough to pay $4 a gallon around here. They are still driving around in their Ramchargers and Avalanches. They seem not to notice the price yet. That tells me that they'll keep paying it. So why should oil go down? Unless Saudi really comes up with an extra million barrels per day we are probably going to stay up around $125 a barrel now. I could be wrong.