[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'w')e're a lot more dependent on oil now than we were during ww2. you can't even fathom the impact $10 gas would have on the US economy.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'w')e're a lot more dependent on oil now than we were during ww2. you can't even fathom the impact $10 gas would have on the US economy.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')hen the supermarket shelves are stripped because of breakdown of the interstate trucking system, where will you get your food from, VMarc?

[Heineken]

I think we have to have our disasters FIRST, VMarc. THEN we may have some options, for a stripped-down population.

It is just not in our nature to do the heavy-duty preventive medicine that's needed. Because it tastes bad.

Since we react rather than pro-act, disaster is unavoidable.

I think you underestimate the monstrous consequences of $10 gasoline (and $13 diesel?) for a society that has evolved around cheap fuel for over a century. That, too, is human nature.

Welcome to the site.

[ColossalContrarian]

VMarkHart, I understand what you mean but I’m only pointing out how you’re playing down $10 gasoline, ~$250 oil. We really don’t know what $250 oil = in gas terms but we do know that $120ish oil is causing airlines to go out of business and truckers to strike because of fuel costs. People are cutting back and the fat is being trimmed. We won’t see the full effects of $120ish oil for another two years, until it’s fully worked through the system. Until the farmer’s fertilizer cost go up along with our food costs.

People make the mistake of thinking the transition is overnight. It’s not, it’s disastrous a number of years out, which in human terms is a long time but in civilization terms it’s not too long. Then there are the people going without food in Africa and other parts of the world. For them, $120ish oil IS disastrous.

The police force in a few counties over from mine (suburb of Denver, CO) is stopping nightly patrols to save fuel. This is with only $4 gas! Imagine doubling that. No police patrol at night, only responding to calls. I’ll see if I can find a link but it was in last Sunday’s Denver Post.

Nobody in this thread is talking zombie hords. I imagine sky rocketing crime and armed citizens in my worst case scenario. I really don’t think I’m that far off either but one thing I know is that it won’t happen overnight, give it a couple years and then let it drag out for a decade and a half or so. That to me is Disastrous

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'U')nfortunately, the $250 oil prospect cannot be viewed in isolation. Remember, it will be accompanied by "peak everything"---topsoil, fresh water, coal, uranium, metal ores, timber, you name it.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think you underestimate the monstrous consequences of $10 gasoline (and $13 diesel?) for a society that has evolved around cheap fuel for over a century.

[sterlingtrader]

I have been reading the site for some time now. Lurking, learning trying to make some sense of what the future holds for us. I have to confess that I am becoming a doomer.

I wonder for just how long, that many jobs will even exist at the point of $250 oil. The people at the bottom of the wage scale are having to work multiple days now just to fill up a gas tank and eat.

At what point does the pay for police officers, teachers, firemen, and so many other essential infrastructure jobs become too low to even show up. This will be the breakdown.

I would like to compliment you all for sharing your views, as this is the most informative message board I have ever visited.

[VMarcHart]

Welcome to the site, Sterling.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sterlingtrader', 'I') have to confess that I am becoming a doomer.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think you underestimate the monstrous consequences of $10 gasoline (and $13 diesel?) for a society that has evolved around cheap fuel for over a century.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', ']')The police force in a few counties over from mine (suburb of Denver, CO) is stopping nightly patrols to save fuel. This is with only $4 gas! Imagine doubling that. No police patrol at night, only responding to calls. I’ll see if I can find a link but it was in last Sunday’s Denver Post.

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sterlingtrader', 'I') have been reading the site for some time now. Lurking, learning trying to make some sense of what the future holds for us. I have to confess that I am becoming a doomer.

I wonder for just how long, that many jobs will even exist at the point of $250 oil. The people at the bottom of the wage scale are having to work multiple days now just to fill up a gas tank and eat.

At what point does the pay for police officers, teachers, firemen, and so many other essential infrastructure jobs become too low to even show up. This will be the breakdown.

I would like to compliment you all for sharing your views, as this is the most informative message board I have ever visited.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'S')urely there's a formula of some kind to determine cost of gas (per gallon) based on prevailing cost per barrel? For instance, if oil is $250 a barrel, what is it per gallon?

[CrudeAwakening]

One of the consequences of living in a society as complex as our own is that our mutual interdependencies are, to a large extent, hidden from our immediate awareness.

It is only when the links in the chain that form the base of the pyramid of complexity begin to break, that we become truly, viscerally, aware of the extent to which we rely on others for our survival.

The division of labour and its attendant specialization of skills may be a boon in times of economic growth and abundance, but it renders us supremely vulnerable to more difficult times. Ask yourself how well you would cope if you were forced to barter to support yourself. If you are unable to feed yourself, what can you offer someone else in return for food? It's a sobering thought.

At $250 oil, I expect to see significant structural unemployment, as service industries become gutted, with enormous pressure on government coffers to provide assistance, and a declining tax base from which to draw as economic recession bites hard. The pressure to print money may become irresistible, and we know where that leads.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')here these thresholds precisely lie is of course a subject for debate.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'A')s far as $10gas/$250 oil being disastrous I guess it depends on your definition of disastrous.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '
')The point I keep driving is (as well as posters before me) that "trimming fat" means less economic activity.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'T')he point I keep driving is "trimming fat" means less economic activity in a heavily service industry dependant economy equals less jobs.

[Milret2]

ColossalContrarian wrote >>Great observation! The distance might be kinda large but even bike and horse mounted patrols could help in that aspect.<<

I live in a small college town on the coast of central California and noticed, for the first time ever here, a cop with sidearm riding on a bicycle down one of the town main streets. Of course i suppose that might have been partly due to the police department here getting a 26% raise just a few days ago.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', 'O')ne of the consequences of living in a society as complex as our own is that our mutual interdependencies are, to a large extent, hidden from our immediate awareness.

It is only when the links in the chain that form the base of the pyramid of complexity begin to break, that we become truly, viscerally, aware of the extent to which we rely on others for our survival.

The division of labour and its attendant specialization of skills may be a boon in times of economic growth and abundance, but it renders us supremely vulnerable to more difficult times. Ask yourself how well you would cope if you were forced to barter to support yourself. If you are unable to feed yourself, what can you offer someone else in return for food? It's a sobering thought.

At $250 oil, I expect to see significant structural unemployment, as service industries become gutted, with enormous pressure on government coffers to provide assistance, and a declining tax base from which to draw as economic recession bites hard. The pressure to print money may become irresistible, and we know where that leads.