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Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by MonteQuest » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 16:29:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', ' ')Why will demand not decrease in the developing nations? There are signs of demand destruction in the US(decrease in VMT, airlines falling over or downsizing, GM biting it etc), so why not in much poorer countries?
The "forward momentum" of 11.4% growth in China for one.
The per capita consumption of the countries I mentioned is increasing along along with population growth. Everyone wants a cat, TV and a refrigerator...just like the US. With such a large base as China and India, even a small increase in per capita use translates into huge new demand.
Price isn't going to curb the demand for who have been waiting in line to get the "good life."
And second, there is currently no replacement for oil, diesel, or jet fuel.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by MonteQuest » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 16:32:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TireFire', ' ')Wouldn't you agree the higher prices are forcing a powerdown in sorts?
No, what we are seeing is a re-prioritization of need.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by VMarcHart » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 16:36:11
I voted no. A superspike will be at $500.
What we're seeing now is nothing. It's just supply-demand elasticity. Sellers know buyers can afford at current rates. Why lower it? I wouldn't. Start a lemonade stand at the beach. If people are buying at $10, why would you sell at $9.50? It has nothing to do with breakeven costs or how many lemons you have in your stand.
What we're seeing now is nothing. It's just supply-demand elasticity. Sellers know buyers can afford at current rates. Why lower it? I wouldn't. Start a lemonade stand at the beach. If people are buying at $10, why would you sell at $9.50? It has nothing to do with breakeven costs or how many lemons you have in your stand.
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Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by MonteQuest » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 16:47:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', ' ')The result of the increase in prices is that people will cut back consumption ...
Now, how much of a self-imposed recession can we take?
How much can we cut and still function? (Myself, I can't cut one gallon of gas) (General Contractor) I already plan all my trips.
How much are we willing to cut?
I say not much.
And to what end?
As long as population continues to grow, conservation is futile; at the present rate of growth (1.2% per year), even a 25% reduction in resource use would be obliterated in just a fewyears.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by TireFire » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 12:57:26
Those who cannot afford gas at higher prices will forceably not pruchase gas and thus demand is affected.
As prices rise, even those in the middle class will start to be less waste3ful and adjust their respective lifestyles.
middle class and below account for the vast majority of population, and prices are incrementally increasing allowing time for adjustments. it is the poorest, as useal who will suffer the most.
Why wouldn't higher prices halt progress in India and China? just the transportation cost of heavy ressources across the ocean is strating to tax Chinese/Indian enterprises. If they cannot get our raw materials within a sustainable market price, their industry will grind to a halt, and again demand will lower.
I don't believe it is possible to predict how much demand will lower vs growth output.
Just because you are not wasteful, does not mean everyone are. in fact I believe the vast majority of americans are extremely wasteful. remove only TVs for starters - how much oil would that remove from demand?
Who says the the extra 3 billion in 2050 will have a lifestyle equeal to the US? And who says the US lifestyle must be maintained in order to survive? (ask about 800 million chinese farmers about that one).
You are drawing a very quick and impulsive conclusion it seems.
And finally, I shall ask again; who says a powerdown cannot be motivated by higher prices?
As prices rise, even those in the middle class will start to be less waste3ful and adjust their respective lifestyles.
middle class and below account for the vast majority of population, and prices are incrementally increasing allowing time for adjustments. it is the poorest, as useal who will suffer the most.
Why wouldn't higher prices halt progress in India and China? just the transportation cost of heavy ressources across the ocean is strating to tax Chinese/Indian enterprises. If they cannot get our raw materials within a sustainable market price, their industry will grind to a halt, and again demand will lower.
I don't believe it is possible to predict how much demand will lower vs growth output.
Just because you are not wasteful, does not mean everyone are. in fact I believe the vast majority of americans are extremely wasteful. remove only TVs for starters - how much oil would that remove from demand?
Who says the the extra 3 billion in 2050 will have a lifestyle equeal to the US? And who says the US lifestyle must be maintained in order to survive? (ask about 800 million chinese farmers about that one).
You are drawing a very quick and impulsive conclusion it seems.
And finally, I shall ask again; who says a powerdown cannot be motivated by higher prices?
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Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
by GoghGoner » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 23:07:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TireFire', 'A')nd finally, I shall ask again; who says a powerdown cannot be motivated by higher prices?
It seems like the world's food supply is in great distress today. Food pantries here in the US are struggling mightily. For every calorie you eat about 8 calories of fossil fuel is used in it. We have been on something of an oil extraction plateau since 2005 although imports seem to be falling off in the US. Can you imagine what is going to happen when oil decline really sets in?
Demand may be slightly off but I don't see a great motivation to really reduce consumption at this time in my area. I try to be objective but this is looking like a fast collapse with the financial sector woes, the government debt, energy prices, food prices, and declining imports of crude.
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