[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'W')ill drilling alone solve this problem? No. But why would we leave those reserves in the ground? For what purpose? They are doing no one any good underground.

[Aaron]

ANWR would power the US for 57 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Source

Reminds me of that scene in Tremors.

"We'll be dead in three days anyway... Well... I want to live for the three days."

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ')why would we leave those reserves in the ground?

[hironegro]

I would only support drilling if we nationalized profits and use the windfall for a sensible power down and sensible power up with nuclear/alternative energies at the sametime.

[roccman]

Bravo Monte!!

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') would only support drilling if we nationalized profits and use the windfall for a sensible power down and sensible power up with nuclear/alternative energies at the sametime.

[ROCKMAN]

Aaron,

I’m always amazed at statements like “well….that amount of added production is only X amount of consumption time. Let’s take ANWR as an example. OK……57 minutes a day…..that’s 360 hours each year…..and that’s 15 days a year. Let’s just call it two weeks to be conservative.

You make it sound like adding 57 minutes a day of production as insignificant. I’ll ask you to denote which of the following sacrifices are insignificant to you:

•Two weeks less paycheck
•Sitting at home two weeks with no TV, air conditioning/heat, no lights, no phone, no hot meals (OK…we should all eat more salads)
•No driving for two weeks regardless of how good your mpg is with that hybrid
•Two weeks less vacation
•Two weeks of no shopping
•Two weeks of no sports (It’s only fair…we cut out shopping for the gals)
•Two weeks NO INTERNET
•Two weeks of no coffee (my own personal nightmare)
•Two weeks of no sex (after all she’s still mad about the no shopping thing)

I’m sure you get my point. But we’re not just talking about you giving up these “insignificant things”. We need to multiply these by 300 million people here in the US.

Let’s look at the financial side of ANWR:

Based on you 57 minutes that would equate to 500,000 bopd. That is $24 billion a year that’s stays in the economy instead of sending overseas to people that hate us.

It’s also about $4 billion a year into the Federal treasure from the royalty payments.

I’m not sure how much ANWR would cost to drill up and set the production facilities but it’s a safe bet it would exceed $15 billion. And probably most of that would go to US companies (i.e. US blue color workers)

Not a bad investment…spend $15 billion and make back around $20 billion the first year. Makes for happy share holders. And remember: about 40% of the stock of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and all the other big oils belong to average American Joes and Josephines. Many of them don’t even know it because the ownership is typically through their pension funds. Some of the biggest investors in Big Oil are the auto union pension funds. Somewhat ironic given the hit their workers are taking by reduced demand for those gas guzzling US autos.

One more perspective: the US produces 7 million bopd of the 20 million bopd we use. That’s only 8 hours of consumption. Hell….let’s shut in all our production and save it for the grandkids. What y’all say? It would only mean $500/bbl oil and $20/gallon of gas.

I’m not really fussing at you Aaron. Just trying to put matters into perspective. No…we are not going to drill ourselves out of the peak oil dilemma. But that was also true in the 1950’s when we produced almost all the oil we used. Regardless of the big fields discovered 50 years here and in the Middle East PO was going to be an inevitable fact of life. We should be adjusting to a different consumption model. The only really big fix to drop energy costs quickly is a massive conservation effort. Developing alternatives can’t happen quick enough to accomplish that. Only reducing consumption can be done quickly enough to effect prices in the short term. In time, alternatives would offer the chance to pull back from a hydrocarbon dominated economy. But time is the enemy. Drilling won’t change PO arrivals…just delay it a little. But we desperately need that time to develop viable alternatives as well as serious conservation efforts.

The most important question, IMHO, is whether the politicians/public recognize the immediate need to change business as usually and take advantage of any additional breathing room that increased drilling might afford us.

[ROCKMAN]

Interesting proposal mos6507,

So we let the federal gov't fund the exploration effort. I'm all for that. I'm a petroleum geologist and would love to climb on that gravy train. As a consultant it doesn't matter who pays my invoice...Uncle Sam or Uncle Exxon. There would be a whole lot more work with a government run operation that wasn't based on a profit making business plan. From what I've read about the General Accounting Office report of abuse of Federal credit cards by gov't workers I can't wait to get mine.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'W')ill drilling alone solve this problem? No. But why would we leave those reserves in the ground? For what purpose? They are doing no one any good underground.

[Snik]

Well said Rockman.

[ROCKMAN]

Damn it! Snik and I used the same $500/bbl line from our ExxonMobil supplied propaganda boolet. Now everyone will know.

Seriously though, Snik and I are on the same page I think. As long as prices stay high I'm in tall cotton. I can almost charge what I want as a consultant. A significant increase in production or reduction in consumption would only reduce my income potential. But I would gladly trade that for a chance to let the country adjust to the new reality. I've already had to look into the face of one of my cohorts in the oil patch that lost a child in Iraq. The life of a young Marine may seem to some a cheap price to pay to satisfy our national glutony. But not to me and certainly not to HER parents.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’m always amazed at statements like “well….that amount of added production is only X amount of consumption time. Let’s take ANWR as an example. OK……57 minutes a day…..that’s 360 hours each year…..and that’s 15 days a year. Let’s just call it two weeks to be conservative.

[Snik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') would only support drilling if we nationalized profits and use the windfall for a sensible power down and sensible power up with nuclear/alternative energies at the sametime.

[ROCKMAN]

No offense felt what so ever Aaron. I'm on this site to have just the type of discussion we're having. You take the time to think though the thoughts of others and offer alternative views. I truly believe that such discourse is the only way to acheive consensus and move toward a workable solution.

Read my words again: Po is coming regardless of what we do: drilling or voluntary conservation. You say the world would be more dependent than ever upon oil. That's not true: we are absolutely dependent upon oil right now. No less dependent than upon the air we breath. There is no substitute for oil/gas under any scenario for many decades. Just like being a "little pregnent"..you is or you ain't.

I wish like hell we had adopted Jimmy Carter's proposal 25 years ago (I actually voted for Jimmy...we engineers like to stick together)to start running up the tax on gasoline to force us away from our glutony. But we didn't and every politician (red and blue) since then has failed to prepare society to adjust to a diminishing hydrocarbon based economy. But that's history. Can't change it.

I'm not a doomer but I am very concerned about the fragility of our society. Whether we like to think about it or not we are not as tough as the folks who survived the depression. But if want to avoid facing such a test we need to get away from the bumper sticker mentality (both pro and con) and start applying every tool we have available which could allow us a soft landing instead of a demoralizing crash. At 58 yo I'm set for life. But I have an 8 yo daughter who wants to be a horse vet. I'd like to think that in 15 years or so our society will have the disposable income to accomodate her dream.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Electric_Economy_2025', ' ')I like how you always say power down, instead of saying several billion people must die, I guess it's easier for you to talk about it then huh ?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d like to think that in 15 years or so our society will have the disposable income to accomodate her dream.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Electric_Economy_2025', ' ')I like how you always say power down, instead of saying several billion people must die, I guess it's easier for you to talk about it then huh ?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')You must be terrified of a future where we aren't actually in overshoot then, where global energy production is several times larger than it is today.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')You must be terrified of a future where we aren't actually in overshoot then, where global energy production is several times larger than it is today.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ')It is a multifaceted problem which must be attacked on all fronts. Everything from conservation, to research and development of new technologies, to drilling for new reserves, to additional use of existing renewable energy sources.