[arretium]

You got a hand it to him. He and CERA are the only Cornucopians left on the planet. At least he's also the most quoted oil guy around. Everyone here (err, everyone that has 500 posts or more anyway) knows that Daniel Yergin is heavily quoted in the news media. CERA blames the usual suspects for today's oil prices, but I digress.

I started this thread for two reasons. First, and foremost, I couldn't find a thread for him under "experts". I thought we should start a thread for Mr. Yergin. Perhaps he'll actually show up here and post something once he sees that we've started a thread. You never know!

Second, we must give thanks to Daniel Yergin, Ph.d. If it wasn't for him and his organization, Americans would be clued into our problem. That would be bad for you and me. Why would I want people to stay plugged into the Matrix? Yes take that blue pill. If more people become clued into our current predicament, none of us in America would have a prayer to prepare. All the survivalist gear would be gone. Horses would cost more than suburbian homes. And our economy would be in the sewage treatment plant (forget about the toilet) because people would stop spending and consuming. Instead, people would start saving and preparing. As a result, our economy stop working and people would lose their jobs. So let's give thanks to Daniel for doing his job: getting people to believe that everything is a-okay. As GWB would say, "Danny, you're doing a heck of a job!"

[emersonbiggins]

Not mine, but I thought I'd pass the good news along - this infamous chart was brought up to date through March 2008.



link

[SoylentGreen]

LOL,Yergin what a maroon.

[Dreamtwister]

Hey I love that guy! Every time he says "bet on red" I drop a bundle on black, and wouldn't you know? I win every time!

[Aaron]

That's really gotta hurt.

It's a sea-change between older & younger generations, and how we view information.

People are paying Yergin for his terrible advice, while this websites correct advice is free.

A certain kind of symmetry there.

[hironegro]

I think he's apart of generation that uses macro-economic principles to guide his world-view. You know the type. They believe politics started in 1947 and believe people make decision/trade-offs based on personal interest not because of religion, ethnicity, and or culture.

[joeltrout]

He needs to stick with the history of oil instead of predicting future oil prices.

He is by far the greatest author on the historical overview of the oil industry but past performance in no way indicates future performance.

joeltrout

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') think he's apart of generation that uses macro-economic principles to guide his world-view. You know the type. They believe politics started in 1947 and believe people make decision/trade-offs based on personal interest not because of religion, ethnicity, and or culture.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')hat's really gotta hurt.

It's a sea-change between older & younger generations, and how we view information.

People are paying Yergin for his terrible advice, while this websites correct advice is free.

A certain kind of symmetry there.

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') think he's apart of generation that uses macro-economic principles to guide his world-view. You know the type. They believe politics started in 1947 and believe people make decision/trade-offs based on personal interest not because of religion, ethnicity, and or culture.

[threadbear]

Sad fact is Daniel Yergin fell off his Commanding Heights and broke his head. What a Is that rude? Like...won't "the magic of free markets" fix everything?

[dissident]

Dirt cheap oil is western capitalism's dirty little secret. Without it the system is not viable. The trickle down will become too small and the majority will live in relative poverty like in any other third world regime. That is why the true believers cannot bear to face up to the tidal wave of reality heading their way. The current "crisis" with demonstrations and political witch hunts is due to a token price increase. Just how marginal is the economy that less than a doubling of the gasoline/diesel price since 2002 (at least in Canada) is stressing it? Basically, some doubling of a small initial price should have a negligible effect. Imagine the mess when the price is five times higher.

[SoylentGreen]

At this point, I could see a pull back, price wise ,until the 1st hurricaine threatens the US or Mexican offshore OIL rigs or heavy terrorist /military SHTF. Coal and Oil has had a hell of a run in the last few months.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') think he's apart of generation that uses macro-economic principles to guide his world-view. You know the type. They believe politics started in 1947 and believe people make decision/trade-offs based on personal interest not because of religion, ethnicity, and or culture.

[skyemoor]

Yergin's current forecast is actually a giant spread; he's said he can see it going to $150, but can also see it going to $40. While now he is much more likely to succeed, such a wide spread is worthless.

[Revi]

I am just reading his book The Prize. It's the history of oilfield after oilfield going bust. I would think that he would look at his own research and deduce that the whole game goes down eventually. Pennsylvania was the world's biggest oilfield at the beginning of the last century!

People just kept finding more. Now they aren't. Surely he knows that. Why does he keep forecasting cheap oil? Surely he knows better. The price of oil was like 3 cents a barrel when Spindletop came in. as soon as cars came along it went up.

They thought we were going to run out in 1913: link You would think that he would read his own book, and think about it some. His next book shoud be called The Price.

[jerry_mcmanus]

A conversation with Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates 06/27/08
link

[DantesPeak]

I am just the messenger here, and I don't agree with most of what Yergin says.

In addition to Yergin stating that "a new analysis of over 800 oil fields—shows ample physical resources below ground" which "will continue to make oil a global growth business", Lynch also embraces 'new technologies'. How nice.

Not so nice is his statement that "Some worry that physical supply will run out".

Ok now, have your say.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')UGUST 30, 2009, 7:21 P.M. ET.Why Oil Still Has a Future
Demand in the developing world trumps new technology.

By DANIEL YERGIN

Why this debate about the single most important source of energy—and a very convenient one—that provides 40% of the world's total energy? There are the traditional concerns—energy security, diversification, political risk, and the potential for conflict among nations over resources. The huge shifts in global income flows raise anxieties about the possible impact on the global balance of power. Some worry that physical supply will run out, although examination of the world's resource base—including a new analysis of over 800 oil fields—shows ample physical resources below ground. The politics above ground is a separate question.

But two new factors are now fueling the debate. One is the way in which oil has taken on a second identity. It is no longer only a physical commodity. It has also become a financial asset, along with stocks, bonds, currencies and the rest of the world's financial portfolio. The resulting price volatility—from less than $40 in 2004, to as high as $147.27 in July 2008, back down to $32.40 in December 2008, and now back over $70—has enormous consequences, and not only at the gas station and in terms of public anger. It makes it much more difficult to plan future energy investments, whether in oil and gas or in renewable and alternative fuels. And it can have enormous economic impact; Detroit was sent reeling by what happened at the gas pump in 2007 and 2008 even before the credit crisis. Such volatility can fuel future recessions and inflation.

What will those alternatives be? Batteries and plug-ins and other electric cars—today's favorite? Advanced biofuels? Natural-gas vehicles? The evolving smart grid, which can integrate plug-ins with greener electric generation? Or advances in the internal combustion engine, increasing fuel efficiency two or three times over?

In truth, we don't know, and we won't know for some time. For now, however, it is clear that the much higher levels of support for innovation—and large government incentives and subsidies—will inevitably drive technological change.

For oil, the focus is on transportation. After all, only 2% of America's electricity is generated by oil. Until recently, it appeared that the race between the electric car and the gasoline-powered car had been decided a century ago, with a decisive win by the gasoline-powered car on the basis of cost and performance. But the race is clearly on again.

Yet, whatever the breakthroughs, the actual impact on fuel use for the next 20 years will be incremental due to the time it takes to get large-scale mass production up and running and the massive scale of the global auto industry. My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030. But because of the slow turn-over of the overall fleet, gasoline consumption would be reduced only modestly below what it would otherwise be. Thereafter, of course, the impact could grow, perhaps very substantially.

But, in the U.S., at least for the next two decades, greater efficiency in the internal combustion engine, advanced diesels, and regular hybrids, combined with second-generation biofuels and new lighter materials, would have a bigger impact sooner. There is, however, a global twist. If small, low-cost electric vehicles really catch on in the auto growth markets in Asia, that would certainly lower the global growth curve for future oil demand.

As to the next 150 years of petroleum, we can hardly even begin to guess. For the next 20 years at least, the unfolding economic saga in emerging markets will continue to make oil a global growth business.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')or the next 20 years at least, the unfolding economic saga in emerging markets will continue to make oil a global growth business.

[Plantagenet]

"My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030." --Yergin

--------

That seems very pessimistic to me. Hybrids are very popular and the technology works. If oil prices go higher I would think hybrids and electric vehicles should be 25-75% or more of the market by another 10 years or so.