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I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 11:27:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', 'A')gain thou I will say, while doable it will not happen due to the prevalent mindset of American society.
Ex, hypothetically, if the solution depended on you and could choose anything you wanted, what would it be? Again, very hypothetically.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:29:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', '
')Again thou I will say, while doable it will not happen due
to the prevalent mindset of American society.


Now I'll try asking the question-

How would that technology make our society sustainable?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 15:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')How would that technology make our society sustainable?


If we have no sincere intention of getting to sustainability, then it won't help. If we do, we still need something like a methadone to help us wean ourselves off of oil if we want to avoid the invisible hand of withdrawal symptoms.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby Peleg » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 16:20:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'S')oberGoose, I don't want to come off like some of the flamers who you will see after me (or even before me) who will be replying to your post. This site has been going on for nearly 4 years, don't you think everyone who is involved with this subject has heard and investigated what you just stated? Let me just cut to the chase, Shale Oil is a joke within the Oil industry, "Shale Oil, the Energy of the Future, and always will be". No one has yet shown how you can produce more liquid fuel energy (gasoline) from shale oil than you use to produce it!

Learn this acronym by heart "EROEI"- Energy Return On Energy Investment

Thats meaningless conventional wisdom. First its wrong, based on the Shell studies. Second its irrelevant as long as you have an energy source to convert to liquid fuel (such as a nuclear reactor, or natural gas in the case of the Alberta oil sands)

The real reason oil shale won't be useful is production cost. If it costs over twice what CTL costs (which it does), you wont be producing oil shale for liquid fuels untill coal costs go that high. If it costs more than doing synfuel from nuclear hydrogen and limestone (which is possible) it'll never be produced.

Oil shale certainly is viable, and everyone shoots it down for the wrong reason. The real reason it wont compete is because theres something better for a long time to come.


Cost? Scale doesn't have anything to do with it eh? Money is the beginning and the end. Keep thinking that way and you will never understand why your civilization falls to the ground never to rise again.

It is exactly the EROEI of energy sources that drives and structures all other forces in an economy based upon energy consumption. you might be able to do a song and dance with smoke and mirrors for a while, but when it really matters it is about calories in and calories out per unit time.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 19:43:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')re you looking for these technological wonders to allow continuation of business as usual indefinitely? If not indefinitely, for how long? Would these technologies make our societies sustainable?


Tony, I think that it is doable, but as I said in the beginning of the statement " It will not happen ".
Was that a yes to my first question? Economic growth can't continue indefinitely on a finite planet, so looking for it to do so will end in disappointment. Technology can't do the impossible, even though it may appear to, from time to time.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 19:55:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')re you looking for these technological wonders to allow continuation of business as usual indefinitely? If not indefinitely, for how long? Would these technologies make our societies sustainable?


Tony, I think that it is doable, but as I said in the beginning of the statement " It will not happen ".
Was that a yes to my first question? Economic growth can't continue indefinitely on a finite planet, so looking for it to do so will end in disappointment. Technology can't do the impossible, even though it may appear to, from time to time.

Why is this not even wrong statement allways banded about here. Everyone knows that infinite growth in any finite space comes to an end. It says nothing about projections for where that end is; Somewhere between my sandbox and the visible universe.

What we can strive for is solutions in the short term that pave way for a longer term. In the long run, everyone dies. We don't need to make plans for the death of the universe tomarrow, only for tomarrow.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 04:07:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')hy is this not even wrong statement allways banded about here. Everyone knows that infinite growth in any finite space comes to an end. It says nothing about projections for where that end is; Somewhere between my sandbox and the visible universe.
Everyone knows it, Dezakin, but a great many people, even here, have their fingers crossed that it ain't so. Many don't, or can't, even contemplate a time when economic growth must stop and certainly don't want to consider a pathway to sustainability. This is why this "not even wrong statement" (a rather odd way to phrase it) gets posted so often.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')hat we can strive for is solutions in the short term that pave way for a longer term. In the long run, everyone dies. We don't need to make plans for the death of the universe tomarrow, only for tomarrow.
Well, hopefully a bit longer than tomorrow, but it seems that that is all we do, make plans for tomorrow only. You're right, we should strive for solutions that pave the way for a longer term solution but it seems there are very polarized views here. There are a few who don't expect any problems, beyond what the market can solve "naturally" (this is equivalent to infinite growth belief). There are those who recognize that there is a serious problem but look for fixes to get society back on track (i.e. the same track it was on before this PO think surfaced - so equivalent to belief in infinite growth). Then there are those who accept that economic growth must end and that we should start to plan for that now, and even bring it about in a managed way.

Only two of those views have no basis in reality.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 00:13:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', 'T')he technology is there to prevent a collapse, but I do not
think it will be implemented in time.


Ahem!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'M')oreover, habits of thought persist. As we shall see in Chapter 11, people continue to advocate further technological breakthroughs as the supposedly sure cure for carrying capacity deficits. The very idea that technology caused overshoot, and that it made us too colossal to endure, remains alien to too many minds for"de-colossalization" to be a really feasible alternative to literal die-off. There is a persistent drive to apply remedies that aggravate the problem.


There is no techno-fix, even if there was time.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby Ex_MislTech » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 06:25:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', 'A')gain thou I will say, while doable it will not happen due to the prevalent mindset of American society.
Ex, hypothetically, if the solution depended on you and could choose anything you wanted, what would it be? Again, very hypothetically.


What would I choose...

I am smart enough to know that my "gut" feeling should not
be considered when it comes to the fate of the human race.

I am not an expert, and I dare say that the ppl pushing
their particular method may be biased.

So I'd say we need it evaluated 100% fully in the light of
day by non-biased scientists, some from multiple countries
with no ties to big oil or anyone partial to the outcome.

The Three most likely methods are:

1) Coskata's $1/gal Ethanol that is backed by General Motors.

2) Valcent Technologies Vertical Hydroponic grown special
Algae strains that produce 100,000 gal/acre/yr in the desert.

3) The bacteria that eats waste and excretes Petroleum.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 133668.ece

The wild card that might be viable in the distant future
if adequate sources of sulphur could be supplied.

http://www.physorg.com/news114172068.html

Algae making hydrogen.

Like I said though, I do not consider this hydrogen method
viable anytime in the near future, but it is interesting and
several years of research may get the needed results.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby Ex_MislTech » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 06:44:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', '
')Again thou I will say, while doable it will not happen due
to the prevalent mindset of American society.


Now I'll try asking the question-

How would that technology make our society sustainable?



After multiple independent peer reviews, and verification of
the process the best solution proven would move forward.

The methods I have mentioned would be scaled up to
use all agri-waste, and human waste for feed stock for
the algae and bacteria.

All 3 plans can use extreme desert lands that are not
used for agriculture, but the wastes can be piped there
much like oil is piped now.

The Deadzone at the mouth of the Mississippi is partially
due to the large amount of waste in the river.

This water could be used in the process and actually help
purify the water over the long term.

This was proposed for the Salton Sea in California by
a brilliant man at the University of New Hampshire.

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

Valcent took it a step further though and wants to use
closed loop system to use specialized algae, and to
put it in vertical tubes for more light exposure for
maximum growth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hioZ7C6HLs

Bacteria turning sewage to petroleum could be geared
up in any city with waste treatment.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 133668.ece

Coskata's could be done in most places around the country.

http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1286/

It is doable, but it won't happen anytime soon.

We no longer have the will to make it happen here
on the scale that is required unless someone who
has billions of dollars sees more billions in it, and is
willing to take the risk.

Only once it is a major crisis will they be dragged kicking
and screaming to some kind of solution other than what
the oil lobby has wanted.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Unread postby cat » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 13:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is doable, but it won't happen anytime soon.


It may be doable, but it cannot be sustainable unless it address the insatiable need for economic growth in our society, and, it seems, most technological solutions do not.
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