[ish]

FYI: For those in the West and interested:

Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute will be speaking simulcast at the Bioneers conferences October 15-17.

Title of speech: Winning the Oil Endgame: Mobilizing Business and Design Innovation for Profitable Energy Security

Don't know much about him, but I like the title! :D

http://www.colorado.edu/ecenter/bioneers/

[nathanglasgow]

The report can be donwloaded free of charge at the link below:

http://www.oilendgame.org

Abstract:

This independent, peer-reviewed synthesis for American business and military leaders charts a roadmap for getting the United States completely, attractively, and profitably off oil. Our strategy integrates four technological ways to displace oil: using oil twice as efficiently, then substituting biofuels, saved natural gas, and, optionally, hydrogen. Fully applying today’s best efficiency technologies in a doubled-GDP 2025 economy would save half the projected U.S. oil use at half its forecast cost per barrel. Non-oil substitutes for the remaining consumption would also cost less than oil. These comparisons conservatively assign zero value to avoiding oil’s many “externalized” costs, including the costs incurred by military insecurity, rivalry with developing countries, pollution, and depletion. The vehicle improvements and other savings required needn’t be as fast as those achieved after the 1979 oil shock. The route we suggest for the transition beyond oil will expand customer choice and wealth, and will be led by business for profit. We propose novel public policies to accelerate this transition that are market-oriented without taxes and innovation driven without mandates. A $180-billion investment over the next decade will yield $130-billion annual savings by 2025; revitalize the automotive, truck, aviation, and hydrocarbon industries; create a million jobs in both industrial and rural areas; rebalance trade; make the United States more secure, prosperous, equitable, and environmentally healthy; encourage other countries to get off oil too; and make the world more developed, fair, and peaceful.

[EnviroEngr]

Primary Discussion Thread:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1735.html

[EnviroEngr]

Blast From The Past:

Cross-Referring -
http://www.kucinich.us/phpBB2/viewtopic ... 6051#16051

[backstop]

EE -

As far as I can see the only "Winners" of the end of the oil game will be those people, regions and nations who choose to co-operate for the common good rather than competing for an illusory and self-defeating supremacy.

Amory included !

regards,

Backstop

[EnviroEngr]

I've often wondered what it would be like to be able to see at moderate resolution, 1 or 2 million years of activity on the Earth in a single, short duration percept.

This whole human chapter thing must have some bigger purpose we can't see in our mayfly lives. We're too chauvinistic perhaps to comprehensively grasp how it all fits together anyway; but if some of us could get beyond deriving the equation always with-respect-to some anthropomorphic variable, maybe long-range vision could spark some enlightenment.

Anyhow... You're right: The Game is ours and Winning it would be our exit cue. That kind of dualistic, lop-sided single hemisphere thinking is, in the first place, both the soil and the seeds of destruction. Life is either being lived with lucidity and connectedness or it is nothing more than an illusory dream.

[Whitecrab]

I don't think you guys are giving this book enough credit. Yes, it's pretty utopian and only deals with business as usual conservation. Yes, the plan still takes a few decades to get rolling. Yes, Lovins doesn't really say how everyone is going to get their own personal H2 generator. But there is some really good ideas in here, ideas I haven't seen anywhere else in the PO literature. Stuff I pilfer and use in letters to politicians.

Specifically, some of the great ideas were:
-Promote vehicle efficiency through light-weighting with carbon fibre materials. Reducing the weight while retaining the strength is a very dramatic way to save fuel and reduce construction complexity (and paint use!). The Lovins report does account for the petro used to make the fibre, and suggests a loan method to give the automakers the financial strength to do this. Alternatively, start it as a military or aerospace app. and let it trickle into cars once it's worked in those areas
-There is some GREAT numbers about military fuel waste. How the military ignores all logistics costs for fuel. How tanks could be made more efficient by taping Honda generators on the bank. How mid-air refuelling that costs $200/gallon is treated like $20/barrel oil
-Use rubber tire crumbs in pavement. The patent for this recently expired. This saves oil and maintenance and recycles rubber, reducing tire yards (tires are a problem)
-Some financial incentives programs, including ways to to give cars to the poor, and most important of all - feebate programs. This is where you set a standard, and everyone above the standard gets money off the sticker price and everyone below has to pay extra. You set the standard so that the feebate is revenue-neutral or positive, and move the standard as technology improves. This loads fuel prices right into the time of purchase and draws efficiency out constantly. This idea could be applied to homes, fridges, almost anything! Not just cars. And it makes money for the government! Great idea
-Suggestions that the hydrogen storage problem goes away once you lightweight enough. That's one problem gone. (Among many...yes his H2 hype is pretty out there. But solving the storage is worth noting)

This is really worth a look. Although skim read. Some of the stuff, particularily the light-weighting, gets repetitive at times.

[ExtractionEngineer]

Yesterday I was in a corporate strategy briefing with some top and mid level technology staff of a major oil services company. About 100 in attendance. Ultimately the discussion turned to pursuit of some alternative/non-traditional forms of energy...and what that might entail, technically speaking. I won't speak about what was being discussed for fear of revealing inside info...but the intro to the presentation session floored me.

Within the first five minutes we were told:
1. Canterel is in decline.
2. Gawhar is in decline.
3. Light sweet crude is in decline.

This is not strange to hear at peakoil.com or even coming out of my own mouth. To hear it so plainly in this setting, though, was...well...surreal.

I got the strangest feeling, though, that most of the room was experiencing cognitive disonence. Luckily, I got the last question. Here is what I asked:

Will ________ (name of "opportunity" we'd been discussing) or anything else be able to offset the decline of light crude oil?

The answer...a very blunt NO.

The sentiment of the comment that followed was basically...these are the facts...and the thing we have been discussing is our next move.

Later that evening I went to the grocery store to pick up some strawberries. The shelf looked a little emptier than it usually does. I figured it was my imagination. An 80 year old (guess??) lady was standing next to me and struck up a conversation with the old man behind her.

"Someday soon I expect to see the shelves empty" she said.

"Sooner than you think" he replied.

It is the increase of stuff like this that has moved my personal preps into high gear. Starting to feel like were living in a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match.

Every man for himself.

[abelardlindsay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ExtractionEngineer', '
')Will ________ (name of "opportunity" we'd been discussing) or anything else be able to offset the decline of light crude oil?

[emersonbiggins]

Time to buy more ammo.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ExtractionEngineer', '
')I got the strangest feeling, though, that most of the room was experiencing cognitive disonence.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')esterday I was in a corporate strategy briefing with some top and mid level technology staff of a major oil services company.

[cipi604]

EE, good to have people like you and many others on this forum. The canary in the peak-oil tunnel is starting to die... aviation industry, prepare for the crash landing..

[ExtractionEngineer]

Dude,
I agree that point 1 is old news. I have also been wondering how anyone could "know" that Ghawar is in decline...to a greater degree of certainty than we "know" on this board. I agree that it is, but would be hard pressed to prove it beyond all reasonable doubt.

Also, as far as the name of the company...I'm not saying. Sorry if that makes me come off as a little paranoid, but part of my post-peak-oil strategy is to keep my job longer than most of the general population. Throwing my employers name around on internet message boards does not fit well with that strategy. Hope you can understand.

mos6507,
I don't know what conclusions others make. Honestly, I think most people intuitively understand it is very bad...and some of their brains just "change the subject" at that point. I know it took me a few YEARS to go from understanding of the problem to actively preparing my life for the ramifications. Maybe I'm slower than most at peakoil.com....but I definitely think there will be a time delay between the general public understanding peak oil and the gp changing their lives intentionally because of it.

Most likely scenario IMO....one day we will wake up and everyone will be panicking.

[seahorse]

EE,

I've been on these threads awhile now. I say that so you will understand my question is a legitimate question and not trying to cause trouble.

All the points you mentioned have been discussed on this site for some time.

(1) How do you know the info you all received has better sources than what's reported here? For example, Ghawar in decline?

(2) Why do you think your company, after all these years, suddenly get interested in PO?

[ExtractionEngineer]

Seahorse,

I have been reading your posts for years, and some of them were instrumental in pushing me over the edge to get into raising goats. No worries.

1. I don't think that the company does have better info than what we have here....although I could be wrong about that. The sources are probably the same. I was just pointing out that business cases are now being done with the presupposition of peak oil. This was the first direct evidence I had personally seen of that in my company. One could argue that the upper echelons of oil majors have known for decades. Otherwise, why not build more refineries. That is speculation, though, because if the upper echelons did know it they did NOT advertise that portion of their knowledge down the chain of command. My point was that, on the inside of the oil game, the cat is out of the bag.

2. Plain and simple. This business is cut throat. Now that the down slope is imminent, some of these non-traditional alternatives are becoming the ONLY growth markets left. Don't get me wrong, there is no "company" interest in peak oil beyond how it impacts the bottom line and what strategies will profit the company best in the end.

These companies grew up in a dog eat dog atmosphere, just for a while there was enough food to go around for everyone.

[seahorse]

EE,

This is pretty powerful information, bc, as you point out, it represents a turning point. Its interesting how after all these years the public, and now as you report, the energy industry, are recognizing PO. We've all wondered what would happen after society "wakes up." I guess we'll all know in about 12 months. I am glad to hear the energy industry is recognizing the issue. Maybe, just maybe, it they start putting some thought and resources into it, we can start finding some solutions. Too hopeful? I have to be hopeful. I have three kids.

Thanks for the post EE. This real world info marks a significant point in the PO timeline.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ExtractionEngineer', ' ')Otherwise, why not build more refineries.

[Kingcoal]

So much for the Saudi output boost.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'S')o much for the Saudi output boost.