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I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby kakkerlak » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 09:32:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoberGoose', '
')We should continue to develop hydrogen, nuclear, and other renewable sources of energy.

Hydrogen and nuclear are both not renewable.
Am i repeating someone else now? Hopefully not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')The hydrogen is not a source of energy is almost strawman. It is a fuel and chemical component for producing synthetic fuels.

Uhhh...

Hydrogen is not a source of energy.
You have to create hydrogen using a source of energy.
After you have created hydrogen it is still not a source.
It is a carrier of energy made using a source of energy.

The word (and meaning of the word) fuel is not equal to the words energy source.

The point is that in order to get hydrogen you need energy first. This energy is THE source. Hydrogen is just a product. Solar energy is a source because you don't have to add or convert energy before you can use it.

Hopefully i didn't make any mistake.
Have fun!
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby Dezakin » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 15:33:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kakkerlak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoberGoose', '
')We should continue to develop hydrogen, nuclear, and other renewable sources of energy.

Hydrogen and nuclear are both not renewable.
Am i repeating someone else now? Hopefully not.

With 160 trillion tons of uranium and thorium in the ground you would have to burn it as fast as we receive sunlight for 16 million years before we would run dry.

Its not renewable. Neither is the hydrogen in the sun. It'll last as long as you need it to. It cant last a shorter time than that because if you try to burn it faster you'll melt the planet from waste heat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')The hydrogen is not a source of energy is almost strawman. It is a fuel and chemical component for producing synthetic fuels.

Uhhh...

Hydrogen is not a source of energy.
You have to create hydrogen using a source of energy.
After you have created hydrogen it is still not a source.
It is a carrier of energy made using a source of energy.

The word (and meaning of the word) fuel is not equal to the words energy source.

You didn't understand what I was saying. Noone except the very uneducated are claiming hydrogen to be an energy source.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby VMarcHart » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 16:14:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'A') few years ago I had to replace 1/4 of my roof ... if given a choice between hope and math, I will trust the math.
WI, you make a compeling argument towards math. I have to agree with you. However, fixing a roof and saving mankind are 2 distinct maths; the former has 2 variables, the latter has too many to count. All mathematical models, equations, supercomputers, experts, etc, predicted 2006 and 2007 were going to be worser hurricane years than 2005. Then what?

I'm in agreement with you, Monte, etc, that we over populated this planet, and a massive correction is inevitable and forthcoming. However, hope is what makes (you and) me wake up the next morning, isn't it? Let's let less educated people pitch in their ideas without criticism.

Be good!
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby VMarcHart » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 16:24:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')I'm with you; I too think we can make a big step towards fixing everything. Call me a dreamer, a non-scientific, a hippie, whatever you want, but please make sure you call me hopeful.
You hope that an unsustainable paradigm doomed to failure will persist?
No.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')here is no techno-"fix" for this.
Agreed. I doubt it will be techno. But I also doubt 5 billion people will die overnight, you included.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby VMarcHart » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 16:28:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'S')he's wrong. The solution is not powerdown. Powerdown is just another kick-the-can-down-the-road temporary solution. It is just the "conservation" approach to extending carrying capacity. Sure, we should pursue this in the interim, but the longterm solution is to not have any kids and reduce the human population to match carrying capacity better so that future generations won't HAVE to live like paupers when all they can count on is renewable energy.

Of course. I agree.
I do too.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 16:51:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') do too.
So when do you think reproduction should be allowed again, VMarcHart?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby VMarcHart » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 17:20:48

Hi, Tony.

Whereas I do think the rate in which we're going is crazy, I don't think we should suspend reproduction radically. I'm making these numbers up, but perhaps scale it down to 1/50, or 1/100, or even 1/1000 of the current rate. I imagine we'll have to keep gene diversity. The biologists among us will certainly have a better opinion.

How about you?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 18:33:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'H')i, Tony.

Whereas I do think the rate in which we're going is crazy, I don't think we should suspend reproduction radically. I'm making these numbers up, but perhaps scale it down to 1/50, or 1/100, or even 1/1000 of the current rate. I imagine we'll have to keep gene diversity. The biologists among us will certainly have a better opinion.

How about you?
I don't think stopping having kids is a good option, even if it could be enforced. If there were no more children born until population levels sank to what could be determined as sustainable, most of the population might be beyond reproduction age and the mix of ages would be dire. One option might be to stop being paranoid about risks, stop trying to keep everyone alive for as long as possible (with medicine, surgery) but have plenty of pain killers on hand!

I think we should be imaginative about options for reducing populations to sustainable levels and, also, not assume that such a level is 1-2 billion - maybe bio-intensive farming can feed a larger population and simpler living could decrease the environmental pollution.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 18:45:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')I don't think stopping having kids is a good option, even if it could be enforced. If there were no more children born until population levels sank to what could be determined as sustainable, most of the population might be beyond reproduction age and the mix of ages would be dire.


Correct. In a stable population, the death rate and the birth rate must be equal.

To decline to a stable population, the death rate and the birth rate must be equal enroute to that goal.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby kakkerlak » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 19:51:05

A question;

Assuming we live in a perfect world. How long would it take to get the population to a sustainable level?

Have fun!
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 21:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kakkerlak', 'A') question;

Assuming we live in a perfect world. How long would it take to get the population to a sustainable level?

Have fun!


Longer than we have.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby mos6507 » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 02:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')I don't think stopping having kids is a good option, even if it could be enforced. If there were no more children born until population levels sank to what could be determined as sustainable, most of the population might be beyond reproduction age and the mix of ages would be dire.


That's the whole point. By the end of it you'd have a geriatric population that is having trouble taking care of themselves. But at least they have a sporting chance instead of an immediate die-off. People would have to be willing to sign off on this demographic shift. Once the last of the overpopulation era dies of natural causes, then the much smaller younger generations will finally inherit an earth that is much more sustainable.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 02:57:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')I don't think stopping having kids is a good option, even if it could be enforced. If there were no more children born until population levels sank to what could be determined as sustainable, most of the population might be beyond reproduction age and the mix of ages would be dire.
That's the whole point.
I'm not so sure.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'B')y the end of it you'd have a geriatric population that is having trouble taking care of themselves. But at least they have a sporting chance instead of an immediate die-off. People would have to be willing to sign off on this demographic shift. Once the last of the overpopulation era dies of natural causes, then the much smaller younger generations will finally inherit an earth that is much more sustainable.
The earth is completely sustainable all the time. What those that inherit what's left have to ensure is that their population is viable, that they inherit an earth that can support them and that they live a sustainable lifestyle.

My point was that a complete cessation of reproduction might not leave a viable population, once it restarts. I'm not sure that kind of radically shifted demographic would not have other impacts that might be difficult to overcome.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby VMarcHart » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 09:24:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')he earth is completely sustainable all the time.
TBD.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')y point was that a complete cessation of reproduction might not leave a viable population, once it restarts. I'm not sure that kind of radically shifted demographic would not have other impacts that might be difficult to overcome.
Agreed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'P')eople would have to be willing to sign off on this demographic shift.
mos, you have my vote, but I'm afraid you won't get enough votes to make a difference. A pity, isn't it?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 03:04:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')he earth is completely sustainable all the time.
TBD.
OK, well at least until consumed by the sun, if it is. If not, until subsumed by some other cosmic event.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby mos6507 » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 23:59:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')My point was that a complete cessation of reproduction might not leave a viable population, once it restarts. I'm not sure that kind of radically shifted demographic would not have other impacts that might be difficult to overcome.


Seems like it's the safer path, though.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby Ex_MislTech » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:40:22

The technology is there to prevent a collapse, but I do not
think it will be implemented in time.

Bacteria making Petroleum:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 133668.ece

Bacteria making Ethanol:

http://www.wired.com/cars/energy/news/2008/01/ethanol23

Algae making Bio diesel: (100,000 gal/per acre/yr)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hioZ7C6HLs

They all work right now, and the Ethanol one has
already received the blessings of GM.

It could work, but it needs massive scale up in short order.

It would be expensive to implement, but currently we use over
140 billon gallons of petrol based fuel , and at $4 a gallon
approx. that is over 560 billion a year, 5.6 trillion in a decade .

We can get these online for a lot less than that.
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 04:23:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')My point was that a complete cessation of reproduction might not leave a viable population, once it restarts. I'm not sure that kind of radically shifted demographic would not have other impacts that might be difficult to overcome.


Seems like it's the safer path, though.
Safer than what? Safer for who or what?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 04:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', 'T')he technology is there to prevent a collapse, but I do not
think it will be implemented in time.

Bacteria making Petroleum:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 133668.ece

Bacteria making Ethanol:
Algae making Bio diesel: (100,000 gal/per acre/yr)
They all work right now, and the Ethanol one has
already received the blessings of GM.
It could work, but it needs massive scale up in short order.
It would be expensive to implement, but currently we use over
140 billon gallons of petrol based fuel , and at $4 a gallon
approx. that is over 560 billion a year, 5.6 trillion in a decade .
We can get these online for a lot less than that.

Are you looking for these technological wonders to allow continuation of business as usual indefinitely? If not indefinitely, for how long? Would these technologies make our societies sustainable?
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Re: I think we can make a big step toward fixing everything.

Postby Ex_MislTech » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 11:19:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ex_MislTech', 'T')he technology is there to prevent a collapse, but I do not
think it will be implemented in time.

Bacteria making Petroleum:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 133668.ece

Bacteria making Ethanol:
Algae making Bio diesel: (100,000 gal/per acre/yr)
They all work right now, and the Ethanol one has
already received the blessings of GM.
It could work, but it needs massive scale up in short order.
It would be expensive to implement, but currently we use over
140 billon gallons of petrol based fuel , and at $4 a gallon
approx. that is over 560 billion a year, 5.6 trillion in a decade .
We can get these online for a lot less than that.

Are you looking for these technological wonders to allow continuation of business as usual indefinitely? If not indefinitely, for how long? Would these technologies make our societies sustainable?


Tony, I think that it is doable, but as I said in the beginning of the statement " It will not happen ".

We do not have the will to make it happen anymore,
not until its already well into the crisis.

The chinese try to have a 50 year plan, the US has
crisis management.

Ppl of this generation have the 7-11 mentality, they want it
now and they want it cheap and easy.

It would not be cheap or easy and will take tremendous
man hours to scale it up.

Without something like the CCC or WPA I do not see it
happening in time to prevent the collapse.

Alot of ppl of the day felt those organizations were
communist, thou they did build thousands of bridges
during the great depression.

Again thou I will say, while doable it will not happen due
to the prevalent mindset of American society.
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