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Re: Another Oil price Record

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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 20:12:32

How are the current inventories ? I have been busy at work unfortunately. I hate Spring and Summer.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 20:22:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are the current inventories?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 302.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.4 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent from the same period last year
full report

That's last weeks report. The new one comes out at 1035 tomorrow morning.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 20:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are the current inventories?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 302.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.4 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent from the same period last year
full report

That's last weeks report. The new one comes out at 1035 tomorrow morning.


Funny how they don't mention oil/product imports were down 11.4% as compared to last year used the same criteria as above.

We keep hearing about demand destruction but nobody is noticing that oil/product imports are going into a steep dive. Should we blame that on speculators too?
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 21:01:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')unny how they don't mention oil/product imports were down 11.4% as compared to last year used the same criteria as above.


Well...they did. I just didn't quote that part.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. crude oil imports averaged about 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down 98 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, 819 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged about 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 127 thousand barrels per day last week.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 21:14:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')unny how they don't mention oil/product imports were down 11.4% as compared to last year used the same criteria as above.


Well...they did. I just didn't quote that part.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. crude oil imports averaged about 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down 98 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, 819 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged about 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 127 thousand barrels per day last week.


You are right , but...

They could have said supplies were falling 9 times as fast as demand was falling, but that might scare a few people into thinking we are actually in an energy crisis and not being manipulated by - your choice - big oil, Cheney, OPEC, speculators, drilling restrictions, etc.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby patience » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 08:05:58

At present rates of supply falling, how long till we see shortatges at the end of the hose? Living on reserves will eventually drain the system. Can't live on savings forever.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby bkwillia » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 08:37:51

Unless we have a major supply disruption, I am confident that investment funds will bid up the price of fuel to cut demand before storage gets to critical levels. The commodities market is very liquid these days, and there is no shortage of cash. Government oil rationing would represent a failure of free market to profit from strong oil product demand.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 09:37:02

I found it interestig that Simmons said the world is out of drilling rigs. Every rig is being used.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:49:22

Peak rigs!
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 19:46:23

Another crazy day! First it's down, then it's up. [smilie=dontknow.gif]
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 20:02:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'A')nother crazy day! First it's down, then it's up. [smilie=dontknow.gif]


Well expectations of a Saudi output hike were crushed under the heavy weight of reality.

Just how bad are things when the Saudis call a meeting only to say 'that's all folks'?. l

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Wednesday said it was not expecting announcements on increased oil production from a conference in Saudi Arabia between consumers and producers this weekend.

"No one is expecting to see announcements of increased production," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.


Reuters
Last edited by DantesPeak on Wed 18 Jun 2008, 20:20:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 20:13:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell expectations of a Saudi output hike were crushed under the heavy weight of reality.


Yeah, makes no sense to me. The big news from the inventories report this morning was that inventories were down 1.2 million barrels. This sent the market plunging because apparently people were expected it to fall by 2 million? Then it jumps up this afternoon because Nigerian Rebels don't want to have a peace talk? Weird! Just seems to me like everyone is very confused about where the price should be. They're scared it's going to drop. They're scared it's going up. Everyone is very jumpy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust how bad are things when the Saudis call a meeting to just say 'that's all folks'?.


As I understand it, the extra 200,000 bpd was supposed to be the big news from the conference. Somebody in the Saudi Government couldn't keep his yap shut and leaked it to CNBC.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 21:38:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')Regarding MOL, wasn't it mentioned here several times before that the MOL in the US was around 285 million barrels before gasoline shortages started showing up in the national system?


Yes, we would see local and then regional shortages before we hit the national MOLs. At the point national MOLs are reached, chaos develops and the entire distribution system becomes unstable.

Here are the official MOLs, which probably understate the actual MOLs due to increased suburbanization, more storage tanks, and more pipelines since the last report was issued.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')heck out this very long post I made on May 18, 2007 for the official US government figures on MOLs. It took me hours of research through obscure records to find. More details and further discussion at link below.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’ve conducted some research on what the official US government guidelines on minimum operating levels of oil and gasoline are.

Apparently since 2004 the levels are 270 million barrels for oil and 185 million barrels for gasoline, according to a National Petroleum Council study on US petroleum inventory levels and refinery operations issued December 1, 2004 [note the study reaffirmed a prior gasoline inventory guideline level of 185 million barrels].

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s discussed in the 1998 NPC inventory study, U.S. petroleum inventories respond to both market and infrastructure changes in the supply system. A significant part of petroleum inventory is required to operate the product and crude supply systems and is not readily available to meet demand. In the 1998 study, the NPC redefined these inventories as “lower operational inventory” (LOI). The NPC defined LOI as the lower end of the demonstrated operating inventory range updated for known and definable changes in the petroleum delivery system. The LOI was introduced in the 1998 study in order to move away from the concept that there is some definable inventory level where supply system reliability becomes of greater concern. While generally not used by industry, the NPC recognizes LOI as a gauge to help the government assess current inventory levels.

Based on the observed crude oil inventory trends, the NPC concludes that the crude oil LOI should be a range of 260 to 270 million barrels, compared to the 1998 study conclusion of 270 million barrels. Since the 1998 study, crude oil inventory has been as low as 260 million barrels with no impact on crude oil supply to U.S. refineries. However, in September 2004, Hurricane Ivan had a significant impact on offshore oil platforms, pipeline movements, and oil imports. This created localized supply disruptions at a few refineries even though crude oil inventories were slightly above 270 million barrels. This reinforces the concept that the LOI is only one indicator of adequacy of supply and therefore a crude oil LOI range is recommended, rather than a single value, to better represent the degree of accuracy associated with the LOI methodology.

No change is appropriate at this time in the LOIs for gasoline or distillate fuel oil. Given the short time frame of this study, the potential impact of regulatory changes in diesel sulfur content on distillate inventory was not studied.


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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 22:18:15

So we're currently at 301 for crude and 208 for gasoline. What exactly are "blending components" and any idea why they're making up an increasing percentage of our stores? Is that ethanol?

Also could you give a run down of the three grades of distillate fuel oil vis-a-via sulfur content? The less than 15 ppm stuff is standard diesel fuel right?
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 22:34:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'S')o we're currently at 301 for crude and 208 for gasoline. What exactly are "blending components" and any idea why they're making up an increasing percentage of our stores? Is that ethanol?

Also could you give a run down of the three grades of distillate fuel oil vis-a-via sulfur content? The less than 15 ppm stuff is standard diesel fuel right?


Blending components are mostly nearly finished gasoline, most of which just needs ethanol or alkalyte to be added. Alkalyte and other compounds are also considered blending components. Ethanol is not considered a blending component until it bascially reaches the refinery for processing.

Since we don't know what the make up of blending components are, we don't know if there is for example any shortage of alkalyte - which is needed for summer blend of gasoline. Half of US 'gasoline' imports are gasoline blending components, with these blending components shipped with the intention of just adding the finishing compound.

ULSD is the standard now (less than 15 ppm) for trucks, but about half of doesel is still produced over that standard for other uses.

So the answer is - they don't want us to know when we are near MOLs by figuring out the make up of inventories.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby strider3700 » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 02:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') found it interestig that Simmons said the world is out of drilling rigs. Every rig is being used.


Perhaps things have changed in the last two months but back in March I was out in Alberta talking with some of the different drilling companies. They all had roughly 20% of their rigs sitting. The problem wasn't the lack of work it was the lack of skilled people to run the rigs.

Anyone could get hired out there right now. I was worried about how well some of them could use a PC and our software when I went out. It was politely explained that a number of the employees couldn't spell their own names and will never be able to use the software so don't worry about it.

Totally different world out there right now.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 09:59:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') found it interestig that Simmons said the world is out of drilling rigs. Every rig is being used.


Perhaps things have changed in the last two months but back in March I was out in Alberta talking with some of the different drilling companies. They all had roughly 20% of their rigs sitting. The problem wasn't the lack of work it was the lack of skilled people to run the rigs.

Anyone could get hired out there right now. I was worried about how well some of them could use a PC and our software when I went out. It was politely explained that a number of the employees couldn't spell their own names and will never be able to use the software so don't worry about it.

Totally different world out there right now.



If this is true, why would Simmons say the world is out of rigs ?
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby strider3700 » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 12:54:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')
If this is true, why would Simmons say the world is out of rigs ?


Well there are a fewpossibilities

1- the situation has changed they've found enough people to run them all and they all are in use.

2 - We're talking different types of rigs, I was looking at "small" mobile rigs used onshore. He could be talking offshore rigs which my company has nothing to do with at the moment.

3 - If a rig exists but has no one to run it it could be counted as out of service.


Everyone was going flat out and had worked backed up so effectively we're constrained by rigs
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