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EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

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EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby lorenzo » Mon 04 Sep 2006, 14:55:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]EU growth outstrips US and Japan
Europe's economy is growing faster than the US or Japan, according to the latest figures for the second quarter of this year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5305698.stm


And all this knowing that Europe's is far more sensitive to high energy prices (because it exports far more than the US).
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 02:26:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]EU growth outstrips US and Japan
Europe's economy is growing faster than the US or Japan, according to the latest figures for the second quarter of this year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5305698.stm


And all this knowing that Europe's is far more sensitive to high energy prices (because it exports far more than the US).


No, you are wrong. Germany, not Europe, is the world's largest manufacturing exporter, but other European countries actually run trade deficits, so they cut into Germany's surplus if you want to look at pan-European numbers. The world's largest exporters are

Germany
USA
Japan
China

All of which are net importers of oil, so high energy prices impact all of them. Japan the least because they use energy more efficiently. Germany also uses less energy per unit of output than the USA or China.

Also most of the growth in the EU is coming from the new EU-10 in central and eastern Europe who are growing twice as fast as the EU-15, and not from old Europe where countries like Italy struggle to compete against Chinese imports as well. Or countries like Italy, France and Portugal that not only run trade deficits, but also budget deficits (not unlike the USA). Spain runs a small budget surplus, but do to the size of its trade deficit, its overall current account is also negative. No world beating, trail blazing growth in those Club Med countries!

So really although it is an interesting article, your point that EU growth outstrips the US and Japan, despite oil prices, is quite far off the mark.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 04:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Also most of the growth in the EU is coming from the new EU-10 in central and eastern Europe who are growing twice as fast as the EU-15, and not from old Europe where countries like Italy struggle to compete against Chinese imports as well.

Hi Mr Bill,
Not to say that counting Newcomers Europeans in the growth is like adding tomatoes to pineaples since their economies are minuscule.

Europe, with its higher taxes, labor rigidity, less market oriented mindset, less R&D investment, is structurally prone to less growth than the US.
To me, this sudden growth is just a statistical blip in the economy radar, good for headlines but nothing real.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 04:36:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Also most of the growth in the EU is coming from the new EU-10 in central and eastern Europe who are growing twice as fast as the EU-15, and not from old Europe where countries like Italy struggle to compete against Chinese imports as well.

Hi Mr Bill,
Not to say that counting Newcomers Europeans in the growth is like adding tomatoes to pineaples since their economies are minuscule.

Europe, with its higher taxes, labor rigidity, less market oriented mindset, less R&D investment, is structurally prone to less growth than the US.
To me, this sudden growth is just a statistical blip in the economy radar, good for headlines but nothing real.


Agreed. Somewhat under the motto that 'one dead sparrow does not signal the end of Spring' or something like that? ; - )

Also, although Germany (Switzerland too) does export a lot of high end capital machinery to Asia to support Asia's growth in manufacturing and export, many of Germany's exports stay within the eurozone as well. But that is not to say that Poland, CZ, Slovakia, Hungary do not help 'some' German companies remain competitive with their headoffice on Potzdamplatz and their production facilities in Vicegrad. Also a competitive advantage to have a cheap base for manufacturing, say in zloty or florints, but at the sametime have duty free access to the eurozone.

However, as Brad Setzer here points out German manufacturing is also under pressure from artificially cheaper Asian currencies, which is just 'another' reason why the world runs a current account surplus with the USA because no one else wants a strong currency that would hurt their export competitiveness.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The net effect of Asian weakness vis a vis the Europe? Asia’s trade surplus with Europe has grown dramatically over the past 18 months. That has offset its higher oil import bill. More than offset it. And kept overall Asian export growth up even as Asian export growth to the US has slowed somewhat.

As a result Asia’s overall current account surplus is still growing even as Asia’s oil import bill soars.

In other words, euro strength v. Asia helps the Asian economies generate the funds that allow them to finance the United States deficit. The funds Asia earns selling to Europe – often selling goods priced in dollars – are largely channeled back to the US

Apparently, a global slowdown driven by a slowing US is GOOD for the dollar
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Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 04:49:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'A')nd all this knowing that Europe's is far more sensitive to high energy prices (because it exports far more than the US).
Europe is more sensitive to high energy prices not because of export but because we have much higher oil taxes. But maybe not much since we are used to high prices and have adopted conservation much earlier than the US.

In France, paradoxically, the tax part, which has a fixed level (called TIPP) has decreased from 400% 2 years ago to about 150% now, but of course, gasoiline pump price has rocketed.
As a comparison, here are some gasoline pump price & tax :
- USA ( 28 /8/06 ) 1 gallon= 2.9$ tax=0.46$ tax%=19%
- France (July 06) 1 gallon =6.6$ tax = 3.9$ tax%= 144% (1.36 euros/L, 1gal = 3.785 L, 1euro=1.28$)
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby Petrodollar » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 11:33:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n France, paradoxically, the tax part, which has a fixed level (called TIPP) has decreased from 400% 2 years ago to about 150% now, but of course, gasoiline pump price has rocketed.


Interesting, do you a source for that data? I'd like to review it as it confirms something that I have been curious about, thanks.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 07 Sep 2006, 16:12:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', 'I')nteresting, do you a source for that data? I'd like to review it as it confirms something that I have been curious about, thanks.

You have it in the link I gave above. The fixed tax I told about is called in France "TIPP". It is now for the "super" (gasoiline) 58.92 cents/liter like it was 58.92 at january 2005 when the super retail price was at 1 euro/liter, which means that the tax proportion was much higher by then.

In the link, you have a pdf document for 2005 prices. On January 2005, retail mean price was 1,05 euro/l, total tax was 76,14 cents, which is 264% tax.
When prices was around 0,95 euro/l in 2004, tax was at 400% since the TIPP 58.92 cent part remains.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 08 Sep 2006, 02:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n France, paradoxically, the tax part, which has a fixed level (called TIPP) has decreased from 400% 2 years ago to about 150% now, but of course, gasoiline pump price has rocketed.


Interesting, do you a source for that data? I'd like to review it as it confirms something that I have been curious about, thanks.


Hopefully you're not going to give us your theory again that European governments keep gasoline taxes at 400% only so that they can lower them to 150% when necessary to shield their citizens from the effects of higher pump prices or a strong US dollar? We heard that one already and it makes NO SENSE thank you very much.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby miniTAX » Fri 08 Sep 2006, 02:59:37

No I definitely won't Mr Bill since I paid my gas 0.95 euros 2 years ago, 1.30 euro now! I let it to jokers. :wink:

The bureaucrats want to "shield" the citizens, mega lol.
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 08 Sep 2006, 03:12:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'N')o I definitely won't Mr Bill since I paid my gas 0.95 euros 2 years ago, 1.30 euro now! I let it to jokers. :wink:

The bureaucrats want to "shield" the citizens, mega lol.


MiniTAX, next time you think pump prices are too high, just get a few friends together and block a few bridges and tunnels with your cars, and pretty soon Villepin and Sarkozy will be bending over backwards to give you some relief. If that doesn't work, set a few cars on fire. Hey, it worked for truck drivers, farmers and taxi companies? ; - )
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Re: EU growth outstrips US and Japan, despite oil prices

Unread postby miniTAX » Fri 08 Sep 2006, 03:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')If that doesn't work, set a few cars on fire. Hey, it worked for truck drivers, farmers and taxi companies? ; - )

Are you kidding sir ?! Setting fire with gasoiline at the price it costs. No way !
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What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 19:20:08

If the doomers are right, they won't stand a chance of surviving either.
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby Judgie » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 20:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I')f the doomers are right, they won't stand a chance of surviving either.


That would depend on a whole heap of circumstances that vary from region to region, country to country, climate to climate, skillset to skillset, circumstances to circumstances, etc, etc.

Making sweeping generalisations is rarely a safe thing to do.

Personally, I think the above quoted is just a denial/anger post. Do not be discouraged by my post, Serial Worrier. What you are going through is a natural progression that has been mapped out on this site about a year or so ago now. Use the search function to look it up. And more reading! always more reading! :)

Cheers mate.
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby yull » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 06:56:09

I'm pretty sure Britain is doomed. There are so many problems here besides peak oil, but peak oil is going to bring the place crashing down. I'd honestly think the US will be better off, and that's saying something. The rest of Europe will do a little better I think but the problem is that Europe (apart from Russia, UK and Norway) has to import virtually all their oil. Declining exports could really bite very very hard. There's also that unstable behemoth (Russia) to the east who aren't our best friends.
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby manu » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 10:21:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I')f the doomers are right, they won't stand a chance of surviving either.


That's right. Three out of four will be gone, just like everywhere else.
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 18:29:42

I dont see what Russia would gain invading a continent with no natural resources? There again if the EU were to invade Russia?
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby Tristan » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 18:53:21

Japan would definitely be in trouble. Its trade surplus is going to disappear as the demand for their exports fall. How can it ship its goods across the globe when oil becomes prohibitively expensive? Also, most of its food is imported which means people will be spending more on food to cover the shipping costs.
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Re: What's going to happen to Europe/Japan?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 10:12:47

The ongoing terror in Iraq is driving an increasing number of refugees to Europe. Now the EU is forced to make some tough decisions: Who will be allowed to stay in Europe, and will Iraqi Christians have greater chances here than Muslims?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')alks in Geneva

To ensure that the special needs of Christians being persecuted in Iraq are not forgotten, German Christian Democrats are holding direct talks with the UNHCR at its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. The goal of the talks is to identify shared criteria that would make it possible to bring a disproportionately high number of Christians to Germany. CDU officials want Christians to make up at least three-quarters of all Iraqi asylum-seekers.

The size of the potential contingent remains completely uncertain, with estimates ranging from 1,500 to 30,000 refugees. In addition to Christians, members of persecuted religious minorities like the Yazidis and the Mandaeans would also be given a secure future in Germany. Even a small number of Muslims would likely be admitted, provided their situations are deemed especially "precarious," such as couples living in a Sunni-Shiite marriage who face persecution or violence in Iraq because of their relationship.



source: EU Countries Move to Stop Flood of Iraqi Refugees
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