by Dezakin » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:04:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e should continue to develop hydrogen, nuclear, and other renewable sources of energy.
Sorry, hydrogen is not a source of energy nor is it renewable. Nuclear is not renewable either. Uranium is a finite resource.
The hydrogen is not a source of energy is almost strawman. It
is a fuel and chemical component for producing synthetic fuels. Hydrogen production via thermochemical and high temperature electrolysis should be developed. Mix it with CO2 over the right catalysts and you have diesel fuel. Do it with all the CO2 from limeburning from cement plants around the world and you have 10-20 million barrels per day of diesel fuel.
As for uranium being a finite resource: Meaningless.
With 120 trillion tons of thorium and uranium and 1 ton of thorium capable of producing 2 GW thermal, you would deplete the earths supply sometime in the next 16 million years if you burn it as fast as you can without exceeding the raw heat dissapation capacity of the earth, or some 1000 times the current energy consumption of all of global civilization. Its finite. So's sunlight.
by Judgie » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:06:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'S')oberGoose, I don't want to come off like some of the flamers who you will see after me (or even before me) who will be replying to your post. This site has been going on for nearly 4 years, don't you think everyone who is involved with this subject has heard and investigated what you just stated? Let me just cut to the chase, Shale Oil is a joke within the Oil industry, "Shale Oil, the Energy of the Future, and always will be". No one has yet shown how you can produce more liquid fuel energy (gasoline) from shale oil than you use to produce it!
Learn this acronym by heart "EROEI"- Energy Return On Energy Investment
Thats meaningless conventional wisdom. First its wrong, based on the Shell studies. Second its irrelevant as long as you have an energy source to convert to liquid fuel (such as a nuclear reactor, or natural gas in the case of the Alberta oil sands)
The real reason oil shale won't be useful is production cost. If it costs over twice what CTL costs (which it does), you wont be producing oil shale for liquid fuels untill coal costs go that high. If it costs more than doing synfuel from nuclear hydrogen and limestone (which is possible) it'll never be produced.
Oil shale certainly is viable, and everyone shoots it down for the wrong reason. The real reason it wont compete is because theres something better for a long time to come.
I really REALLY wish this guy was a pollie, and I a cartoonist! :D
"That the cream cannot help but always rise up to the top, well I say, <censored by peakoil.com> floats"
Jarvis Cocker - "Running the World"
by Dezakin » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:10:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'S')oberGoose, I don't want to come off like some of the flamers who you will see after me (or even before me) who will be replying to your post. This site has been going on for nearly 4 years, don't you think everyone who is involved with this subject has heard and investigated what you just stated? Let me just cut to the chase, Shale Oil is a joke within the Oil industry, "Shale Oil, the Energy of the Future, and always will be". No one has yet shown how you can produce more liquid fuel energy (gasoline) from shale oil than you use to produce it!
Learn this acronym by heart "EROEI"- Energy Return On Energy Investment
Thats meaningless conventional wisdom. First its wrong, based on the Shell studies. Second its irrelevant as long as you have an energy source to convert to liquid fuel (such as a nuclear reactor, or natural gas in the case of the Alberta oil sands)
The real reason oil shale won't be useful is production cost. If it costs over twice what CTL costs (which it does), you wont be producing oil shale for liquid fuels untill coal costs go that high. If it costs more than doing synfuel from nuclear hydrogen and limestone (which is possible) it'll never be produced.
Oil shale certainly is viable, and everyone shoots it down for the wrong reason. The real reason it wont compete is because theres something better for a long time to come.
I really REALLY wish this guy was a pollie, and I a cartoonist! :D
When you can't actually argue, mock.
by wisconsin_cur » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:21:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e should continue to develop hydrogen, nuclear, and other renewable sources of energy.
Sorry, hydrogen is not a source of energy nor is it renewable. Nuclear is not renewable either. Uranium is a finite resource.
The hydrogen is not a source of energy is almost strawman. It
is a fuel and chemical component for producing synthetic fuels. Hydrogen production via thermochemical and high temperature electrolysis should be developed. Mix it with CO2 over the right catalysts and you have diesel fuel. Do it with all the CO2 from limeburning from cement plants around the world and you have 10-20 million barrels per day of diesel fuel.
As for uranium being a finite resource: Meaningless.
With 120 trillion tons of thorium and uranium and 1 ton of thorium capable of producing 2 GW thermal, you would deplete the earths supply sometime in the next 16 million years if you burn it as fast as you can without exceeding the raw heat dissapation capacity of the earth, or some 1000 times the current energy consumption of all of global civilization. Its finite. So's sunlight.
I have to be an agnostic on the science, I confess I do not have the background to parse it one way or another.
I am, however, capable of following trends and the news so my question would be this,
assuming that our problems can be fixed and the carrying capacity of the earth maintained/expanded using thorium and uranium to replace delpleting oil fields as feed stock for the many goods service that have expanded us to 6 billion + people,
1. Is the technology in place today?
2. Are projects planned or already being implemented to make this crossover?
3. If not, how quickly can they be put into place?
3a. Are there any politicians advocating this and how far advanced is their political agenda?
4. Understanding that Cantrell is declining at an amazing rate (20%+) and that even a slow decline in Ghwar would be alot of oil in addition to the decline in the North Sea
(Link) and that the just in time delivery dogma is now excepted in nearly every industry what are the effects of the possible time lapse between declining oil production and its nuclear replacement?
5. What are the practical effects of deprivation that might/will occur during that lapse? In other words, if there is less fertilizer and thereby less food (to pick one example out of many possible) and the social deprivation/unrest and political gamesmanship that would result wouldn't we expect that obstacles would go up to the building of new nuclear power plants esp if such construction is seen as "benefiting the rich" or people start wanting that money to subsidize their grocery bill, feed their kids or fight illegal immigration or what ever?
These are, I think, serious questions that need to be factored in. It is not only the science that needs to work (and like I said I am forced by ignorance into agnosticism) but the society has to work in order to implement the science.
Will the society work?
by SILENTTODD » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:27:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'S')oberGoose, I don't want to come off like some of the flamers who you will see after me (or even before me) who will be replying to your post. This site has been going on for nearly 4 years, don't you think everyone who is involved with this subject has heard and investigated what you just stated? Let me just cut to the chase, Shale Oil is a joke within the Oil industry, "Shale Oil, the Energy of the Future, and always will be". No one has yet shown how you can produce more liquid fuel energy (gasoline) from shale oil than you use to produce it!
Learn this acronym by heart "EROEI"- Energy Return On Energy Investment
Thats meaningless conventional wisdom. First its wrong, based on the Shell studies. Second its irrelevant as long as you have an energy source to convert to liquid fuel (such as a nuclear reactor, or natural gas in the case of the Alberta oil sands)
The real reason oil shale won't be useful is production cost. If it costs over twice what CTL costs (which it does), you wont be producing oil shale for liquid fuels untill coal costs go that high. If it costs more than doing synfuel from nuclear hydrogen and limestone (which is possible) it'll never be produced.
Oil shale certainly is viable, and everyone shoots it down for the wrong reason. The real reason it wont compete is because theres something better for a long time to come.
Dezakin, we've been hearing this crap since 1979 (I don't know if your old enough to remember the "2nd Oil Crisis", I came of age during the 1st one of 1973). It always seems if the price of oil was 'just' $20 a barrel more, shale oil would come into it's own.
I remember hearing this when oil was under $30 a barrel! If only the price rose to $60 shale oil would come pouring into the world market!
Well Dazakin? What happened? Oil at this moment is over $130 a barrel and I haven't heard of drop entering the system for the reason I've already pointed out.
What's the old saying? '$ talks, Bullshit walks' . If you don't agree with that list who is producing it , and how much are they producing!
Last edited by
SILENTTODD on Fri 13 Jun 2008, 04:01:56, edited 2 times in total.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
by Dezakin » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:43:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I') have to be an agnostic on the science, I confess I do not have the background to parse it one way or another.
I am, however, capable of following trends and the news so my question would be this, assuming that our problems can be fixed and the carrying capacity of the earth maintained/expanded using thorium and uranium to replace delpleting oil fields as feed stock for the many goods service that have expanded us to 6 billion + people,
1. Is the technology in place today?
Light water reactors can be ordered today and operational in 5 years. They're inferior to liquid fluoride/molten salt reactors, in that they have lower operational temperature and consume 200 tons of uranium per year and so might only supply electricity for some thousand years... I would think we'd develop molten salt reactors that we've allready prototyped by then.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Are projects planned or already being implemented to make this crossover?
Sort of. We're just at the beginning of the demand spike of oil before it starts declining in supply so there isn't a lot of coherent policy. There is a lot of pollyanna's in the oil industry just as there are a lot of chicken littles... here; Which makes getting coherent restructuring policy difficult. CTL just plants are starting to be put into place, and a well designed CTL plant can still turn any syngas (hydrogen and CO) into liquid fuels. They'll be more common in a decade.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). If not, how quickly can they be put into place?
It takes several decades. We're in for a rough ride. There are supply chain bottlenecks for light water reactors (heavy forgings for pressure vessels) and development of commercial liquid fluoride reactors still needs to be pursued.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')a. Are there any politicians advocating this and how far advanced is their political agenda?
by wisconsin_cur » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 03:59:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')Y for the answers... I'm still pretty "doomy" but appreciate the effort that went into the responses.
Well, a good example of how fast we could ramp up production with strong public policy support is France. They went from almost no nuclear power supply in 1970 to about 80% in 1990, as a political response to the 1970's oil shocks. I would like the US to pursue such a rush to nuclear power policy, but I think it'll be a bumpier ride than that. Still, it gives an idea
of what is possible. bold mine.
Do you think it is likely?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
by SILENTTODD » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 04:20:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e should continue to develop hydrogen, nuclear, and other renewable sources of energy.
Sorry, hydrogen is not a source of energy nor is it renewable. Nuclear is not renewable either. Uranium is a finite resource.
The hydrogen is not a source of energy is almost strawman. It
is a fuel and chemical component for producing synthetic fuels. Hydrogen production via thermochemical and high temperature electrolysis should be developed. Mix it with CO2 over the right catalysts and you have diesel fuel. Do it with all the CO2 from limeburning from cement plants around the world and you have 10-20 million barrels per day of diesel fuel.
As for uranium being a finite resource: Meaningless.
With 120 trillion tons of thorium and uranium and 1 ton of thorium capable of producing 2 GW thermal, you would deplete the earths supply sometime in the next 16 million years if you burn it as fast as you can without exceeding the raw heat dissapation capacity of the earth, or some 1000 times the current energy consumption of all of global civilization. Its finite. So's sunlight.
You know Dezakin, you have all the answers and just how to do it, you should be be putting you money where your mouth is! Who knows you could be having Paul Allen and Bill Gates washing and waxing your cars!
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan