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phil flynn ???

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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 05 Jun 2008, 15:11:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short July crude from apprx 13200 - lower stop to 12700!!!]
We're short July RBOB from apprx 34000 - lower stop to 32500!!!
Buy July heating oil at 35500 - stop 35300!!!
Buy July natural gas at 1220 stop 1170.

Phil is stopped out on his crude oil trade for a $5 profit, $5000 gain.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'July 2008 127.76 122.85 122.80 128.26 121.61 127.79s -0.03')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')uly 2008 3.3329 n/a n/a 3.3450 3.1760 3.3345s -0.0016

I think what he meant to do was stop out his RBOB trade at 335, rather than 325, and if that is the case, it means a 5 cent profit, or $2100. We will get confirmation of this tomorrow.
To this I say, "Good job, Phil, for taking some money off the table".
His new total is -$18280

Like all compulsive gamblers, he will no doubt brag about his winnings, never minding the fact that his kids are going to be living in the family station wagon unless he gets more consistent.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Thu 05 Jun 2008, 21:19:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short July crude from apprx 13200 - lower stop to 12700!!!]
We're short July RBOB from apprx 34000 - lower stop to 32500!!!
Buy July heating oil at 35500 - stop 35300!!!
Buy July natural gas at 1220 stop 1170.

Phil is stopped out on his crude oil trade for a $5 profit, $5000 gain.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'July 2008 127.76 122.85 122.80 128.26 121.61 127.79s -0.03')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')uly 2008 3.3329 n/a n/a 3.3450 3.1760 3.3345s -0.0016

I think what he meant to do was stop out his RBOB trade at 335, rather than 325, and if that is the case, it means a 5 cent profit, or $2100. We will get confirmation of this tomorrow.
To this I say, "Good job, Phil, for taking some money off the table".
His new total is -$18280
Like all compulsive gamblers, he will no doubt brag about his winnings, never minding the fact that his kids are going to be living in the family station wagon unless he gets more consistent.

Pupp, let me correct you, he cannot afford the gas for a station wagon, his family will live in a Rickshaw... as the transfer of wealth to china continues.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 09:11:50

I stand corrected.... Phil really was short on RBOB at 325 briefly yesterday, and was stopped out when it ralled for an additional $4200 profit.
Good job, Phil. Now you are only at -$14280 after this recent success.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am sure glad you guys wanted for me to lower my stops!
Short July Crude from apprx 13200 stopped apprx 12700!!!!!
Short July RBOB from apprx 34000 stopped apprx 32500!!!
Bought July 35500 raise stop to 369000!!
Buy July natural gas at 1220 stop 1170

Furthermore, he is long on heating oil from 355 after that dip yesterday afternoon, and is going to make some money long, if he was not stopped out yesterday, he made 14 cents long, which is another $5880. he may be back to within $10K of even before too long.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 10:36:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell July Crude at 13500 stop 13600
Sell July RBOB at 360 stop 365
Long July Heating oil from 35500!!!!!!! Stopped to38800!!!!Wow! Buy July Heating Oil 26000 stop 355
Buy July Natural gas at 1240 stop 1170

Our man Phil took some money off the table yesterday on that heating oil trade by correctly raising his stop to 388. This is a 33 cent profit, or $13,860.
This dynamite trade almost completely erased his deficit. He was briefly at only -$420, or delightfully (for him) close to even.
However, that crude oil short sale was filled at 135 this morning, and has been summarily stopped out at 136, for a loss of $1000.
So, he is at -$1420 at the moment. Good six months work, Phil, almost broke even.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I think the market was looking for a bigger amount of demand destruction in that report," Flynn said.

The AP even quoted him this morning. AP via Yahoo
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:40:24

his latest, prescient, valuable analysis from Wed: >Stopped on short July crude from apprx 13500 at apprx apprx 13600. Sell July crude at 140 - stop 142.
Sell July RBOB at 360 - stop 365.
Stopped on long July heating oil from apprx 35500 at apprx 38800!!!! Wow! Buy July heating oil at 360 - stop 355.
We're long July natural gas from apprx 1240 - stop 1170.
Have a GREAT day!
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
I sure hope not !!!!!, but he is back to his losing streak.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 13:51:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell August crude at 13850 - stop 14100.
Sell July RBOB at 36200 - stop 35700.
Buy July heating oil at 36000 - stop 35500.
We're long July natural gas from apprx 1240 - raise stop to 1259!!!

Phil update: He is long on natural gas, and would like to go long on heating oil on a big pullback.
But, he has persisted with the trading strategy that has done squat for him in general over the last few months, which is to short crude oil and unleaded when it breaks the record. This paid off for him exactly twice but more traditionally has killed him.

The natural gas trade he did is fattening up however, it is up 27 cents today, at 1291. If he cashes it out, it's potentially another $5100, which will get Phil into positive territory.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 12:06:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell August crude at 13900 - stop 14050.
Sell August RBOB at 35500 - stop 35700.
Buy August heating oil at 37000 - stop 36700.
Stopped on long July natural gas from apprx 1240 at apprx 1280!! Buy August natural gas at 1220 - stop 1200.

I guess Phil is now stopped out on his 1240 long natural gas trade, for a 40-cent profit, or $4000.
So, our man is finally in the black, at +3580. This is the first time all year he has been in positive territory due to his insistence on shorting the crude oil market.
August is trading above 13 for the moment, no threat to that trade being filled.
Natural gas is up another 25 cents today.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 07:53:56

We have not checked in with Phil for a few days:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're long August crude oil from apprx 14300 - stop 13700.
Buy August RBOB at 34700 - stop 34400.
Buy August heating oil at 39000 - stop 38700.
Buy August natural gas at 1270 - stop 1202.

but we can see that he has flipped to "bull" and is now long on crude oil. His stop is set at 6 cents, which is unusually big for Phil, who has normally been setting his stops about 1 point or maybe 2 at the most away from the entry price.
So it looks as though he is going to hang in there on a hurricane play or something.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:30:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're long August crude from apprx 14300 - raise stop to 13800.
Stopped on long August RBOB from apprx 34700 at apprx 34400. Sell August RBOB at 35500 - stop 36000.
Buy August heating oil at 39000 - stop 38700.
Buy August natural gas at 1270 - stop 1202.

Predictably, Phil the Bull has been beaten up today.
The crude oil trade above was stopped out for a $5 loss, $5K down the drain. The above RBOB trade was down three cents, -$1260
The heating oil trade above was also filled and stopped out summarily, for a loss of 3 cents, or $1260
Natural gas is off 52 cents today, so he is live on that trade, and it seems to have a little breathing room before he is stopped out just over $12

So, +3580, minus $5000 minus $1260 minus another $1260....
-$3940, Phil is back in negative territory.
He might be able to make some money on the RBOB reversal, but his stop is too high, and his trade probably did not get filled.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 20:04:31

the market has a way of making overly cocky, short term traders
like Phil into poor clowns.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 14:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on long August crude from apprx 14300 at apprx 13800. Buy August crude at 13500 - stop 13400.
Sell August RBOB at 35500 - stop 36000.
Buy August heating oil at 39000 - stop 38700.
Buy August natural gas at 1270 - stop 1202.

More bad news for Phil. This natural gas trade was stopped out at a 68 cent loss. $1000 per cent, $6800.
New total: -$10,740
13 large dropped in the last two days.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 10:40:07

Whenever the market moves like it does, we have to check in to see how much money Phil lost.
The RBOB trade above was filled yesterday, and stopped out today, for a 5 cent loss, or $2100.

I don't believe Phil's long crude oil trade above was ever filled. It got to 13543 on Thursday, but did not ever hit 135.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ug 2008 141.88 n/a 136.69 142.13 135.43 141.65 +5.60

But it might have hit it on Wednesday so we will be prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt if he claims it as a trade.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ug 2008 4.0310 n/a n/a 4.0553 3.8455 4.0374 +0.1858

The good news for Phil is that his 390 heating oil trade was filled, and it is up to 414 so this will be a major fattening up if he is smart enough to put some money in his pocket.

Until such time, if any, as he does, his total is -$12840
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 20:54:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'We're long August crude from apprx 14000 - stop 13800.
Stopped on short August RBOB from apprx 35500 at apprx 36000. Sell August RBOB at 37500 - stop 37800.
Buy August heating oil at 40000 - stop 39700.
Buy August natural gas at 1140 - stop 1120.
Have a GREAT day')
Phil took a couple of days off last week (to the undoubted relief of the people he gives 'advice" to).
His crude oil long trade at 140 came out of nowhere during this couple of days off.

We do not know what happened to his heating oil 390 long trade. Maybe he had the brains to take money off the table. It is currently trading at 4.06, which would be a 16 cent profit. He wants to go long again at 400.

His natural gas trade is nowhere near live, nor is his RBOB trade.
Phil has been trying to short RBOB since it was 2.95. You would think that he would see the big picture: If you are still trying to short this market, at 75 cents higher than he was on new years, he has it going the wrong way.

I am not ready to change his total yet.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 13:46:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'We're long August crude from apprx 14000 - stop 13800')Sorry, Phil, you lost a couple of grand on this trade, which was stopped out today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy August heating oil at 40000 - stop 39700.

and you are stopped out on this one too. Three cents/$1260
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey're slamming this pretty good. But remember, these (big) moves are becoming a little more commonplace," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

Yahoo
You ought to know, Phil. You, yourself, were setting your stops 1 point above and below your entry price in about May until you realized that a $1 move is nothing these days.

-$16100
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 08:53:56

We have not checked on Phil for awhile:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell September crude at 12570 - stop 13300.

Stopped on long August RBOB from apprx 31550 at apprx 30700. Sell August RBOB at 31500 - stop 31700.

Sell August heating oil at 37500 - stop 37800.

Stopped on long August natural gas from apprx 990 at apprx 970. Sell August natural gas at 1050 - stop 1070.


It looks as though he lost 8 1/2 cents on the above RBOB trade, that's $3570.

He also lost 20 cents on his long natural gas trade, that's another $2000.

The above crude oil trade is live at 12570 but headed the wrong way as of this morning.

I might have missed one or more successful trades from last week, but the total is now -$21670 for the moment.

I think oiluber is onto something... when Phil switches from bull to bear and vice versa, it is a pretty good indicator that the market is going the other way.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 28 Jul 2008, 11:01:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short September Crude from apprx 12570 - lower stop to 12670.

Sell September heating oil at 37000 -stop 37300.

Sell September RBOB at 30900 - stop 31500.

Sell August natural gas at 1050 - stop 1070.


Phil the Bear is now trying to short the whole complex.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') will be speaking at the Dow-Jones AIG commodity Index Outlook to be held on the Floor of the CME Group Floor! Make sure to dial in if you cannot be there!


Delightful. Should we email this thread to the organizers?
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 15:00:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short September crude from apprx 12570 lower stop to 12530!

Sell September heating oil at 36000 - stop 36300

We're short September RBOB from apprx 30900 - lower stop to 30800!

Sell August natural gas at 1050 - stop 1070.


Well, Phil lowered his stops and put some money in his pocket (luckily) because the whole complex is long at the moment.

He managed to make 40 cents on the crude oil short sale, and also managed to make 1 cent on his RBOB trade above, which was filled yesterday and stopped out today when it went up 12 cents.

So 40 cents on the crude oil $400, 1 cent on the RBOB $420

-$20,850 and Phil was quite fortunate not to have been stopped out with more gigantic losses as these markets whipsaw him.

Nothing like a little short squeeze to trap the bears.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 01 Aug 2008, 11:05:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Short September Crude from apprx 12570 - stop 12870.

Sell September heating oil at 36000 -stop 36300.

Sell September RBOB at 32520 - stop 33000.

Sell August natural gas at 1050 - stop 1070.')

Phil the bear was nearly stopped out on the above crude oil short sale, which was probably filled this morning. As it is he is out of the money almost $3000.

At least he is using his brain and setting his stops a little higher now than he was. That's the good news. The bad news is, he is subject to losing $3K when he is stopped out later on.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 09:37:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short September crude from apprx 12570 - stop 12870.

Sell September heating oil at 34500 - stop 35300.

Sell September RBOB at 32020 - stop 32700.

Buy September natural gas at 840 - stop 820.


A week goes by, and Phil is still live on his crude oil short sale. Thus far, he is in the money by $8K or so, and should probably use his brain and take some money off the table at some point.

None of these other trades is close to being filled. Phil may have finally found a way to keep from losing money trading energy: set his stops so far out that he stays out of the market.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 14:33:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short September crude from apprx 12570 - lower stop to 12040!!

Sell September heating oil at 33000 - stop 34100.

Sell September RBOB at 31000 - stop 31300.

Buy September natural gas at 830 - stop 810.


Phil has put 5 dollars in his pocket, but still has 6-7 on the table. If Phil watched the weather like the rest of us, he might think about reversing his trade at some point.

The 830 natural gas long trade is live today. The other two still way out of the money.

This crude oil trade has been live for a couple of weeks, which is really unusual. Usually, Phil's trades are stopped out within a day or so.
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