[lorenzo]

My first question on this board, a few years ago, was one about what would happen to natural rubber prices once peak oil sets in. The obvious answer was that these prices would first rise spectacularly, then collapse because nobody would be manufacturing any cars any longer.

Guess what, since 2005, natural rubber prices have increased by 150 percent!!!

Yesterday an all time record of US$ 3365 per ton for SMR CV rubber, was set.


Rubber may look like a funny topic, but it is a bit of a "strategic" resource, because there are very few economically viable alternatives to latex. No real advances in polymer science are being made, not fast enough to displace rubber in any case.

So assuming that we won't see a mass transition to massively well organised mass transit, anywhere soon, we will need cars with tires and bikes with tires. This means natural rubber. Tires are never recycled into tires.


Thailand, the world's largest producer, saw 2.5 million hectares of new rubber forests added in the past 5 years to anticipate the demand growth in Asia. But obviously, even this large addition cannot push down prices, which are intimately linked to oil prices.

Add to this that there is a severe danger in Indonesia, the second largest producer, which hasn't been replanting, and which has a high ratio of old to new trees. This factor alone could add much to the price over the coming years.

We are facing a rubber crisis!!

[vision-master]

I won't say it.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I') won't say it.

[AlCzervik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I') won't say it.

[misterno]

peak condom

[frankthetank]

Condoms suck.

Although the alternative will give you headaches, cause you to go slowly insane.

[pup55]

There is another similarity. Back in the 90's the economics were terrible for rubber. People were converting their plantations to palm oil to make more money per hectare, plus palm oil is less labor-intense to harvest. As recently as 2003, it was just about breakeven as to whether to plant rubber or palm.

So no new capacity was added for many years. in Malaysia, capacity actually declined substantially during that time. The trees are quite good wood for furniture.

When the growth in China started, in about 2003, of course the price exploded at that time, and now, has obviously gotten out of hand.

Similarly, it takes about 7 years for a rubber tree to come to maturity, so even if you went out and planted today, it would be awhile before the new capacity hit the marketplace.

You can tease all you want about the products of this miraculous plant, but there are some applications where its unique properties are irreplaceable.

[TheDude]

I remember reading about some method of synthesizing rubber as a byproduct of biofuel production; wagging the dog since biofuels corrode rubber in the first place. You know anything about that, lorenzo? The former, that is; I'm sure you'll have studies on tap about the myth of corrosive biofuel.

[frankthetank]

They sell condoms made of polyurethane...



You can use love oils with these too...

Wasn't there some rich boat builder dude who was going to corner the market in rubber way back when? I remember reading about him once.

Time to clear some more rainforest.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I') remember reading about some method of synthesizing rubber as a byproduct of biofuel production; wagging the dog since biofuels corrode rubber in the first place. You know anything about that, lorenzo? The former, that is; I'm sure you'll have studies on tap about the myth of corrosive biofuel.