[Captain_Meh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bman4k1', 'T')here is only one problem with your point. What about the depleting easy to get reserves? The new reserves have to replace and increase the current amount of known reserves. 60-70 dollars a barrel is ridiculous, way too low.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Captain_Meh', 'A')gain, the margin is too high to suggest that $130/barrel reflects anything close to the current state of global reserves.

[Captain_Meh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'R')ight, and how much are the insurance premiums on an oil tanker nowadays?

[TreebeardsUncle]

Well, there are also distribution, transportation, whole-saling, security (political) costs etc.

This has been a great opportunity to make money on drillers this year.

Expect oil to really take off the next few years.
g

[jbrovont]

True, but here's the problem: China has already shown it's willing to stave off price shock by government subsidy. Why is this our problem? China owns in excess of $1.5T in US debt (yay war!). China doesn't have to subsidise the price of oil for it's citizens forever (remember only a small portion of their population realizes the benefit of oil at this time) they just have to do it long enough to cause enough demand destruction other places to make sure their industry survives longer. Unfortunately, we owe them money. Lots of it, and they're free to use our debt payments to keep the oil flowing into their country while the price climbs higher. Default? Then we really _can't_ afford oil. Keep paying - and guess where the demand destruction will be the worst. Once the US economy unravels and we really are consuming a lot less - we'll find that China's economic progress will not have stopped. Instead, they will own our banks, our mortgages, be doing our jobs... wait, oops - looks like the jobs, factories and tech jobs we prided ourselves with are already there. What exactly was it that we produce again? Oh yeah - "Service." Biggie size that please. Hold the pickles.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mettezz', 'Y')up he's an retard.
Demand destruction for oil is a myth, if americans and europeans consumes less oil, china and india will consume more.
I also think the Bear Stearns boss said also that oil is a bubble and he really is full of crap.

[vetusfirma]

Demand destruction does not create more oil. The world still runs out. what ever isn't used here, now will be used somewhere else, later. Its the contraction in supply that triggers all the bad events. I don't see how demand destruction has any effect on supply. The world cannot increase production beyond about 100 mbd, if memory serves. and the world will use what ever is produced. I mean really, everybody agrees with the concept of PO don't they, or did I miss something new.

The only thing demand destruction could do is extend the time line. We can suffer much longer that we have too.

Once this is all over we will be back to the simple/tribal life many seem to cherish and want. Or we will all be gone, which is what others seem to want or at least think what we deserve.