by nocar » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 11:17:01
Armageddon, we will see who cut down on their oil use first, Americans or Chindians.
As I see it, Americans drive as a daily routine and for earning money as in job commuting. For some , the job will not be worth higher transport costs, so they will find a job closer to home even if the salary is lower. Americans are likely to cut down on vacations and trips to relatives across the country. Some truckers will go out of business. Some goods will not be worth as long freights as before.
In Chindia, the situation is different with millions of new car owners and new trucks. Car owners who have invested a lot in their a first car are willing to pay a lot for using it, driving to their home village to show it. With trucks available, and new roads, farm products can more easily be brought to distant cities and be sold for more than if the products were transported by bicycle to the next village. In short, even in an economic downturn, Chindians now have a lot more motors to use than they ever did, and more roads to run them on.
In America and Europe, an immense infrastructure for oilbased transport, which consists of vehicles, highways, gas stations and parking lots, has been in place for decades. In Chindia, it is brand new and the number of individuals with the economic means to use it is much higher than ever before.
-How the Chindian government will handle the bind they have put themselves in by subsidizing petrol remains to be seen. Will they keep subsidizing until their states are bankrupt, thereby keeping the the rich and powerful happy in their new cars, while essential services for people in generaly are cut, until the unavoidable economic crash? (or a war perhaps?) Cars before people?
Or will the governments be bold and fair, and dare to now face the ire of the influential upper middleclass who will feel terrible cheated - saving for years to buy a car, and then hardly be able to use it.
The irony is that Western economic advisors have told Chindia that getting car production going and building highways are great ways to obtain economic growth and prosperity.
nocar