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Nationalism vs. Globalizaton

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby mercurygirl » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 00:51:33

Yes, but the amazing thing to me is the fact that many "movers and shakers" were hip to the consequences long ago. Like 20-30 years ago, when we almost got on the right track, but were strangely derailed. It makes me suspicious. Or at least somewhat resigned to the fact that we are ruled by psycopaths. :(
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 17:05:09

I like globalization. It gives us cheap goods and helped pull billions out of the poverty of subsistance farming. It makes us less likely to go to war simply because it raises the price when theres so much interdependancy.

But I realize that any neoliberal idea from that dumbass Ricardo with his silly comparative advantage idea is unpopular here. After all that cant possibly work. Its all exploitation and currency manipulation and greed and evil and stuff.
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 17:32:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') like globalization. It gives us cheap goods and helped pull billions out of the poverty of subsistance farming. It makes us less likely to go to war simply because it raises the price when theres so much interdependency.


Well, I guess that's a couple of good things about it.

At least it keeps us out of wars and keeps prices low.

Wait a second...
:)
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 17:36:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') like globalization. It gives us cheap goods and helped pull billions out of the poverty of subsistance farming. It makes us less likely to go to war simply because it raises the price when theres so much interdependancy.


What planet are you living on? 8O
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby auscanman » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 17:54:41

I'm all for truly free international trade, but staunchly opposed to this corporate controlled 'globalization' we have. The health benefits of being able to eat tropical foods in the middle of a Canadian winter are immense. Also, it's a fact that some countries are in a better position than others to produce certain goods. It makes sense to import certain goods.

That said, dismantling existing manufacturing capacity is insane, as is the manner in which multinational corporations are manipulating governments across the world to deter local innovation, abolish (or ignore) labor/environmental laws and regulations, and isolate all the benefits of international trade for themselves.

Obviously, as the price of oil goes up more and more international trade becomes unviable.
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 17:57:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') like globalization. It gives us cheap goods and helped pull billions out of the poverty of subsistance farming. It makes us less likely to go to war simply because it raises the price when theres so much interdependency.


Well, I guess that's a couple of good things about it.

At least it keeps us out of wars and keeps prices low.

Wait a second...

You're right. Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were thriving economies that had lots of foreign investment after all when hostilities errupted, and it had nothing to do with opportunist politics. Its not like they had no real US assets that the US was worried about destroying, right?

And prices would be much much lower if we didn't trade with anyone. I didn't realize that.
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 18:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auscanman', 'T')hat said, dismantling existing manufacturing capacity is insane

Well, the thing is manufacturing capacity isn't being dismantled. Its just there aren't jobs in manufacturing anymore. Factories still run, but largely without factory workers.

Manufacturing has grown in the US over the past two decades. Its just the share of manufacturing as a percentage of the economy hasn't.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ',') as is the manner in which multinational corporations are manipulating governments across the world to deter local innovation, abolish (or ignore) labor/environmental laws and regulations, and isolate all the benefits of international trade for themselves.

Thats how countries attract foreign investment. As they get richer things change. The US went through that, so did Japan. Its how economies develop.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')bviously, as the price of oil goes up more and more international trade becomes unviable.

Thats not obvious in the least. The price of container transport in oil is tiny.
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby hironegro » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 19:04:27

Well neo-liberalism globalization is certainly going to come to an end in the mid-term. Globalization is abstract term and can mean many different things to many different people.
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Re: Anyone Still Excited About Globalization?

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 19:33:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')The price of container transport in oil is tiny.


The price of truck transport from the ports to the final retail stores is not tiny, though.
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Nationalism vs. Globalizaton

Unread postby Denny » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 00:55:27

It seems in Canada today, we are at the mercy of the rest of the world to survive in the event of a major war or calamity. So are many other countries, even our big neighbor tot he south, the U.S.A.

Many year ago, the government was more concerned about self reliance than it is today. It was part of the old "National Policy" to encourage development of all forms of industry, first to ensure creation of jobs, but secondly to ensure that the country could take care of its basic needs on its own. .

No more. This is a short and not complete list of industries that have wound down. Skill swe have lsot and likely won't evfen bge able restore quickkyh in a calamity:

Apparel making - just a scant percentage of our clothing is made in Canada, and its similar in the U.S.A. I bet we could not even outfit our soldiers in a hurry.

Trucks - When the GM Oshawa truck plant closes next year, that will be our last high volume truck plant gone. What would happen if there was a war? Back in WW2, Canada produced trucks by the hundreds of thousand each year and equipped many as personnel carriers, communications vehicles, even dental field trucks. Some people I worked with years ago started in the war and engineered some innovations for the basic truck chassis to do so many important applications. So strategic was truck production, that when Canada and the USA negotiated the free trade deal in automobiles back in the 60's, the deal required for each automaker to maintain a balance in passenger cars and trucks as separate line items. No more. We no longer even care that we make a fair shre of the finsihed vehicles. And, whereas in Canada, we made the essential truck components here at one time - frames, axles, engines and transmissions, these plants are being phased out too. I have even heard that one of the big three makes may start importing automatic transmissions from China. So not even Ford, GM and Chrysler care a lot about this problem, they are just trying to survive and make money, not worried about keeping a good Canadian presence in all facets of auto and truck production.

General electronics. God forbid we go to war with China. We won't even know where to start to make the necessary military and industrial electronics gear. Unless all they need are blackberries. Seriously, we don't make even microwave ovens here anymore.

Farm equipment. Practically all imported now, some exceptions are huge tractors. But, even the supply of spare parts could leave Canada orphaned and hungry. Okay, one can say, we get them from our good friend the U.S.A. But, if the U.S. was at war and needed all potential factory work for war production, do you think they'd remember to carve out some capacity for spare parts of heavy steel items to esport for Canadian needs? Don't think so.

I think many aspects of NAFTA and globalization are short sighted.

I feel its imperative to keep at least 25% of clothing made here, 40% of truck production here, and 35% of electrtonics Maybe 50% of farm equipment.
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Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby deMolay » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 08:49:13

This from the Canadian Economist who led the world by predicting $100 plus per barrel oil back in 2000, and everybody laughed. Their not laughing now. He is now saying that even tho we are in the deepest recession in modern history we still have oil at $70/barrel. Which means that even if we recover, and start consuming again that oil will quickly hit $200 a barrel and crash us again. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090526/jeff_rubin_090526/20090526/[/url]
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 09:14:24

and yet the amount of oil stored worldwide is at a near all time high...something is a miss here when you resort to storing oil in supertankers and the price is still high.
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 09:21:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;When we look around the world, we see recessions that were twice as deep as they were in the U.S. and occurred even before the U.S. recession. That can't just be about sub-prime mortgages. Every time we've had huge oil shocks in the past we've had global recessions. Guess what? This was the biggest shock of them all, so why wouldn't we have the deepest recession of them all."


We've been saying this for over a year at PO.COM ... and Jeff Rubin comes along a year later, writes a book, and makes a million bucks by stating the obvious.

Mr. Rubin, we know that you've been visiting PO.COM, so we just want to say: WELCOME!!!
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 11:23:02

DoomWarrior said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e've been saying this for over a year at PO.COM ... and Jeff Rubin comes along a year later, writes a book, and makes a million bucks by stating the obvious.

Mr. Rubin, we know that you've been visiting PO.COM, so we just want to say: WELCOME!!!


Unless Mr. Rubin thinks that GS and JPM are going to corral oil futures and artificially DRIVE prices to $200 a barrel (a possibility) there is not going to be any stellar increase in oil prices. We are on the back side of the Total Available Energy curve, and declines in economic activity will precede declines in oil production all the way to the bottom (16 years away).

Of course if the megalomaniacs of the world do collude to artificially drive prices to astronomical heights (in their applied lunacy to procure more piles of soon to be worthless FRNs) the 38% total economic contraction prediction will probably be toast. In that event we’ll all be sitting around banging the rocks together.






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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 11:41:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]DoomWarrior said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e've been saying this for over a year at PO.COM ... and Jeff Rubin comes along a year later, writes a book, and makes a million bucks by stating the obvious.

Mr. Rubin, we know that you've been visiting PO.COM, so we just want to say: WELCOME!!!


Unless Mr. Rubin thinks that GS and JPM are going to corral oil futures and artificially DRIVE prices to $200 a barrel (a possibility) there is not going to be any stellar increase in oil prices. We are on the back side of the Total Available Energy curve, and declines in economic activity will precede declines in oil production all the way to the bottom (16 years away).

Of course if the megalomaniacs of the world do collude to artificially drive prices to astronomical heights (in their applied lunacy to procure more piles of soon to be worthless FRNs) the 38% total economic contraction prediction will probably be toast. In that event we’ll all be sitting around banging the rocks together.






AvailableEnergy


Oil doesn't need to reach $200/bbl in order to destroy the economy. $80-$100/bbl on a sustained basis will probably kill it.
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 12:17:23

DoomWarrior said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il doesn't need to reach $200/bbl in order to destroy the economy. $80-$100/bbl on a sustained basis will probably kill it.


I totally agree with you. This economy was built on oil that was priced from $3 to $25 a barrel. $80 oil would trash our current account defecit, and what remains of our financial and economic system. $80 oil would be the last nail in an already rotting casket.

That doesn’t mean that the ruling elite bankers with their pipeline directly into the FED’s vaults won’t try it. They really don’t care what the consequences will be. Its all about making another buck; the rest to them is just collateral damage! These are people who view themselves as omnipotent, and if crashing the system saves them for one more day - so be it!
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 04 Jun 2009, 08:30:30

Well its' good that this guy is at least drawing attention to the real issues, though I doubt even he will be able to get it through some peoples' thick skulls (I'm just waiting for some idiot to come on and start questioning his qualifications or some other such crap).

The only thing is he seems to whitewash over the consequences and imply that we can just carry on as normal, but just ship the jobs back home. If he is saying that it's misleading to say the least.
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 04 Jun 2009, 09:26:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e've been saying this for over a year at PO.COM ... and Jeff Rubin comes along a year later, writes a book, and makes a million bucks by stating the obvious


Jeff Rubin has been talking about Peak Oil now for about 5-6 years. While the chief economist at CIBC World Markets he got a lot of attention several years ago when he predicted oil prices would go to $100/bbl and they were hovering in the $50 range. He is anything but a Johnny come lately to the Peak Oil notion.
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 04 Jun 2009, 17:44:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Troyboy1208', 'a')nd yet the amount of oil stored worldwide is at a near all time high...something is a miss here when you resort to storing oil in supertankers and the price is still high.


Peak oil is on the horizon and the market knows it. It is the anticipation of supply not meeting demand in the future that is driving prices today.

I predicted this 5 years ago on this site. We will see the economic ramifications of peak oil long before the actual peak is seen in hindsight.
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Re: Jeff Rubin/Peak Oil Equals The End of Globalization

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 04 Jun 2009, 21:32:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e've been saying this for over a year at PO.COM ... and Jeff Rubin comes along a year later, writes a book, and makes a million bucks by stating the obvious


Jeff Rubin has been talking about Peak Oil now for about 5-6 years. While the chief economist at CIBC World Markets he got a lot of attention several years ago when he predicted oil prices would go to $100/bbl and they were hovering in the $50 range. He is anything but a Johnny come lately to the Peak Oil notion.


Do you have access to any of his earlier writings or presentations about PO? (links?) I was aware of his predictions about crude prices, but I don't recall him being a huge PO proponent ... at least not on the order of Heinberg, Simmons, etc. Thx.
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