[DantesPeak]

In Friday edition's of the Wall Street Journal, a oil price spike is seen coming:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he big oil-price spike of 2004 looks increasingly likely to get a sequel.

As oil prices approached a new high yesterday, industry analysts said they are anticipating price increases to more than $60 a barrel this year. Some analysts are even beginning to talk of the possibility of greater increases -- to $75 or $80 a barrel -- in the event of a major supply disruption, unless red-hot demand for crude cools in Asia and the U.S.

Unlike last year, when rising prices sparked protests in the U.S. and elsewhere, opposition to the increase has become quieter as businesses and consumers have become accustomed to more expensive oil.

"There is no fear of high oil prices," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "That's what scares me the most." He noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan hadn't even brought up the issue of oil prices in Senate Budget Committee testimony on Wednesday.

As industry analysts pore over demand and supply numbers, they also realize that OPEC has very limited ability to intervene. This vulnerability in the global supply chain became evident last year, when OPEC was producing at nearly maximum capacity to meet demand. With demand continuing to rise this year, analysts reckon OPEC once again will be tested in the spring, as the U.S. driving season begins to use up large volumes of gasoline and as refiners struggle to keep up with demand for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products elsewhere.

The world currently consumes more than 84 million barrels a day of oil. Rising overall demand and seasonal surges are expected to lead to global consumption of nearly 88 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter this year, a level of demand that refineries, making a whole slate of oil products, may be hard-pressed to meet. OPEC currently is producing 29 million barrels of oil every day, roughly a third of world supply.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome analysts are even beginning to talk of the possibility of greater increases -- to $75 or $80 a barrel -- in the event of a major supply disruption, unless red-hot demand for crude cools in Asia and the U.S.

[SD_Scott]

Or we could just cancel the "US driving season".

[DantesPeak]

A lot of Wall Street analysts point to the weekly DOE oil inventory statistics as evidence that we have enough oil. They seldom note that oil imports are running in 2005 900,000 bpd over 2004 levels.

If we needed imports were just 100,000 bpd less, over a period of a year the US would have a 35,000,000 barrel drop in inventory and would face a severe problem of getting the minimum amount of oil flowing through the distribution system (excluding the SPR).

If US demand increases from here, we may have to use the SPR even without a crisis.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')r we could just cancel the "US driving season

[spear]

Ive noticed one thing throughout my lifetime,and that is price of oil of fuel always went up.It never went down.So in conclusion,even if it goes to 3 bucks a gallon or 1.50 euro a litre, and waste driving stopped,the price will stay there.It will never go back down.