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THE Transportation Infrastructure Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 03:36:45

It could be quite a short time before the road system dilapidates in to something that is not useful for cars and trucks. There are very many benefits to this though:

The highway/road system will be fit for bicycles and horses, mule teams. Now it is only fit for high speed, high pollution, fossil fueled vehicles going nowhere fast. Kunstler wrote the "Geography of Nowhere," but it is not a cliche.

High speed transportation wipes out the sense of space and time. As lovely as it is to fly from San Francisco to London in one day. It is more a novelty than any sort of accomplishment. The world has been reduced to a global grid of walmart/starbucks/mcdonalds reachable from anywhere at anytime. There are many who accept this as the "status quo." As if frequent travel on jet planes, and cross country interstate highway trips are some sort of accepted and permanent state of our civilization.

The reality is that reality it is flleeting. Most people reading this will not be flying on planes anywhere at anytime very soon. The airlines will go under and so will the highways.

The displacement of fossil fuels will be met by the replacement of space, time and location. For everything we lose, we will gain more.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby grampybone » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 07:09:17

With the cost of everything rising, especially oil and oil based products, city governments are going to eliminate spending on some things at the expense of other things. I would expect road repair to be pushed to lower on the priority list.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 07:37:24

After the big time contractors go broke and their lobbyist can no longer influence legislatures, the states will rediscover chain gang labor squads. Convicts will do much of the repair. During the great depression being unemployed and a nonresident was a crime. County work farms abounded.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby kjmclark » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')t's not just 18 wheelers that chew up the roads. In colder climates you have potholes develop from the water freeze/melt cycles.

Yeah, and for the past few years the freeze/thaw cycles have been murder, at least in southern Michigan, but I suspect through out the middle of the country. We keep getting fairly wild swings in temperature and higher amounts of precipitation. There's not much anyone can do about a rain in January followed by three weeks in the teens, then snow, melt, snow, melt, etc. for the rest of the winter.

We have well-done three year old road surfaces having problems all over the place around here. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that full year budgets will be spent on patching soon.
... And yet, there are still idiot road expansion projects going on in the suburbs...
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:53:57

This issue is one of those enormous, under-the-radar icebergs. (So too are all other kinds of infrastructure maintenance, including home maintenance as I mentioned in another thread.)

I wonder if the lightweight, relatively-low-power alternative vehicles people are talking about will be able to negotiate the future's crumbled roadways.

The irony could be that only the Jeeps, Hummers, and F-250s will be suited for those roads---vehicles that few will be able to afford to drive.

Mountain bikes could do it too, perhaps (in the hands of strong, younger people), but they will be part of the collapsed economy.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:56:29

When the million dollar projects begin to slide, a lot of asphalt plants will shut down. The the smaller plants will turn out twenty to thirty tons a day. That will patch most of the pot holes. In a county wide area.

In Florida we are not above filling holes with limestone and shell. A lot of back roads are clay or shell.

My dad helped build most of the roads in Highlands County. I was running a motor grader when I was 12. I do have a little background in this area
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:58:03

The county stopped repairing our one-lane road, and instead just put up "Caution: rough road" signs.

It'll be interesting to see how degraded the road gets before they fix it, if they ever do.

Oh well, maybe it will slow people down a little.......
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:02:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he county stopped repairing our one-lane road, and instead just put up "Caution: rough road" signs.
It'll be interesting to see how degraded the road gets before they fix it, if they ever do.
Oh well, maybe it will slow people down a little.......

It will depend on usage and location. The interstates here need fixing every couple of years, my country road has seen no work since we have been here and, talking to people none long before that. Again it is the scale of long-distance transport that will be effected. Locally we will be able to use the roads for a generation or maybe even two.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:13:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' ') Locally we will be able to use the roads for a generation or maybe even two.

That's very optimistic, I think. Our road regularly gets severely damaged by flooding. Eventually it will become a mud and dirt track, in far less than one or two generations.

Well made roads in areas where there is little weather damage should survive for many years, decades.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:19:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' ') Locally we will be able to use the roads for a generation or maybe even two.

That's very optimistic, I think. Our road regularly gets severely damaged by flooding. Eventually it will become a mud and dirt track, in far less than one or two generations.
Well made roads in areas where there is little weather damage should survive for many years, decades.

Again, location, location, location...
eventually the frost/freeze cycle will take out my roads.. rust will take out bridges long before that but without any floods and human based maintance (cleaning out the culverts to avert flash flooding) we will be fine.

Where great pa pa Cur lives flooding is also a problem... it is impossible to tell if the levy system breaks first his immediate roads will be ok but no doubt a lot of others (those protected by the levys) will be a total wash :oops:
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Peleg » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:26:04

This is an issue that used to get talked about around here under the moniker 'Peak Infrastructure.' It is a knock on effect of rising prices and therefore peak oil. Just like Peak Airlines. Now Peak Labor is actually it's own issue that is related to the size and skill of the baby boomers asit exits the system there will be a job crunch and many of us youngin's once thought that would mean a nice wage inflation and plenty of career opportunities. Now with peak oil coming on strong it looks like the economy will shrink and absorb our advantage.

The infrastructure issues goes beyond just roads. All types of needed maintenance is behind schedule. Sewerage systems, roads, bridges, ballparks, nothing will get funded like that when the economic downturn gets severe enough. So how long does it last? That is the key. Some roads will last 60 years in a place with no thaw freeze cycle and relatively light traffic. The major roads where I am from are all made to last and they do pretty well. It is the just not so major ones that are freeze/thawed and pounded with wandering big rigs that may suffer. I've noticed much less patching getting done the last few years, so this has not started yesterday.

Travel at highway speeds would probably be impossible for most smaller cars on most roads here within a decade without any maintenace. Some part of the roadway would become dessicated.

Yeah the term peak is much more pervasive in the issues we face than alot of people mention. There are industries that are expecting massive shortfalls in labor and skill as the baby boomes retire in the next decade or so, many are trying to get them to work longer now (Peak Labor.) You mentioned peak infrastructure. What about peak law enforcement? Peak Airlines we are seeing happen. What about peak community, as people's hearts grow ever colder, sitting in front of that tube watching the world they were told would last forever disintegrate before there eyes. That is why we decided not to upgrade to digital. By that time there is'nt going to be anything non-narcotic on TV. I'll localize, re-constitute and be at peace.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 13:35:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', ' ')All types of needed maintenance is behind schedule. Sewerage systems,


This is one of the most significant. When sewerage, sanitation, and water systems break down, we can expect real trouble in the cities with the re-emergence of cholera and typhoid.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby dissimulo » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 14:23:32

Around here, the county crews have had to cut back on trimming roadside vegetation. The roads will be overgrown from the sides long before the surface becomes unusable. Maybe we'll all be driving in one lane tunnels under the brambles.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 14:44:54

I don't have the answer to the lead question but the cost of road maintenance will be many mulitiples soon of what is was as recently as the 1990s. Plus that's going to get worse over time.

It's my WAG that the embedded cost of oil, in infrastucture such as buildings and highways, is very low - maybe $20. This allows industry and transportation to function fairly efffectively even as oil approaches $140. However this leaves us with a huge replacement problem when fixing a road will cost many times its orginal price.

Although distant country locations may help keep your distance from zombie hoards, highways most used for trucking are still going to get the highest priority on repairs - otherwise food won't get to market fast enough. Residential country roads will start to get bumpy first.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 15:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', ' ')All types of needed maintenance is behind schedule. Sewerage systems,


This is one of the most significant. When sewerage, sanitation, and water systems break down, we can expect real trouble in the cities with the re-emergence of cholera and typhoid.


Poor nutrition in the inner cities won't help either. Nor will the growing scarcity of nutritional food or any food for that matter.
Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby outcast » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 17:07:59

Isn't the highway trust fund also supposed to go bankrupt in a couple years on top of this?
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 17:35:52

I've been steeped in this doom shit for about five years now, and the bad news is now overwhelming even me. I've never seen anything like it. Have you ever known a time when developments were worse? I haven't. Even the 1970s recession seemed mild compared to what's coming at us. The 1960s were turbulent and violent but we always knew where our next meal was coming from.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 18:23:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I')'ve been steeped in this doom crap for about five years now, and the bad news is now overwhelming even me. I've never seen anything like it. Have you ever known a time when developments were worse? I haven't. Even the 1970s recession seemed mild compared to what's coming at us. The 1960s were turbulent and violent but we always knew where our next meal was coming from.


Oh, those ol stories Mum tells about the 30's. They had it hard, really hard. It's different this time and things will be worse bc we all have too much. Image having to put fresh cardboard in your shoes everyday (due to holes on the bottom) and not having enough money for even a streetcar ride. Hearing about how Pa would scope out the railroad tracks everyday for some coal for the space heater. Yeah, they had it hard, really hard. Heck one of Mums sister had rickets. Rickets in America in the 20th century? WTF.
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby eric_b » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 18:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he county stopped repairing our one-lane road, and instead just put up "Caution: rough road" signs.
It'll be interesting to see how degraded the road gets before they fix it, if they ever do.
Oh well, maybe it will slow people down a little.......

It will depend on usage and location. The interstates here need fixing every couple of years, my country road has seen no work since we have been here and, talking to people none long before that. Again it is the scale of long-distance transport that will be effected. Locally we will be able to use the roads for a generation or maybe even two.


I live in Wi. also. I would say a generation (20 years) is all a well traveled asphalt road is good for around here. After that it will decay rapidly.If you're lucky you might get a couple generations out of steel reinforced concrete.

What's that joke, there are two seasons in Wisconsin .. Winter and road construction ?
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Re: How long until the roads and highways fall apart?

Unread postby MC2 » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 19:02:08

I have a long driveway that I paid to have "surface-treated" (crush and run) around 15 years ago, and have, until the past year, maintained with those 50 lb bags of asphalt patch you can get at Home Depot. Well, last year they doubled in price! So, I've gone to using redi-mix concrete (sacrete), mixing in a wheelbarrow and patching that way. I wouldn't be surprised to see more concrete roads in the future - stuff wears pretty well.

What we're going to have to have is a really large push back toward rail - probably be a huge capital project and who knows where the money will come from - and get these damned trucks off our interstates. They are causing 90 per cent of the problem. It's simply insane to move goods by truck these days. Trucks are for that last 50 miles.

Peak Oil should take care of all these little problems soon.
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