[MrBill]

There is an interesting article in The Economist this week about America's suburbs. The 'inventor/architect' of the two-story enclosed shopping mall, Victor Gruen, lasting impact on suburbia, although now seen as its blight, is actually the walk-about town centre that pundits like James Kunstler pine after and lament its demise.

As much as strip malls are an eye sore now they can just as easily form the nucleus of a farmer's market or distribution centre for the local economy tomorrow. They will have to be rhetrofitted to make up for their lack of insulation against heat and cold in the absence of air conditioning, but otherwise where is the difference between a souk, outdoor market and a mall? Only perception and the sense of community.

When the Muslims over-ran Cyprus they did not tear down the churches. They turned them into mosques. Form follows function. So it makes sense to use what you already have versus starting over from scratch. Who in urban America is not within walking distance of a strip mall?

[Heineken]

Whatever happens, the retail square footage in the US is obviously way excessive. It was built with endless growth and credit-fueled "prosperity" in the mindless mind.

I think your vision is correct for some of that "footage," Bill, but three-fourths of those big boxes are going to end up empty and falling apart. A province for rats and hobos.

[MrBill]

RE shopping malls: Indoor tent cities? ; - ))

Well, the problem as I see it is that they are in general horribly energy inefficient buildings relying on excessive power to heat and cool them. No doubt some of them could be converted into cow barns or just warehouse space.

I am thinking of some 'old towns' that I am familiar with like here in Limassol. What strikes me is how densely they used to build. Here that is to create shade because it is hot. But also I suppose to facilitate walking around with shorter distances. Not too many years ago they still used donkies here! ; - ))

Ignoring the blight of crime for a minute I could see a return to denser cities, and therefore less of those strip malls and shopping centers being empty, but converted to another use. Just thinking. I would not want to have to defend that point. But just in general smaller apartments and houses as well as being built in a denser fashion.

Whereas suburbia may follow Victorian England with many larger homes split into duplexes, fourplexes and single apartments. Years ago we converted a two-story house into just such a fourplex. It really was not hard to create two up and down units with two smaller apartments in the basement.

We have been collecting rent on that place for 30-years now, so it was a great investment near a hospital and a local college. It really is in need of some sprucing up now, but if we could get the detached house and lot next door it might be worthwhile to simply knock it down and put up an eight or sixteen unit apartment building. Just in general I like smaller, three or four story walk-ups in good neighborhoods near services and close to schools, universities, hospitals, etc.

[MarkJ]

Local restaurants, shopping centers, super-centers and convenience stores are adding square footage and additional parking to handle the increased business. Some restaurants have added drive-thrus to handle increased traffic and free up parking spots as well. Even some of the rural areas have 3 or 4 convenience stores in the core areas.

Many of our older cities in the Northeast are too small, too crowded and poorly designed since they were built when walking, horses and/or trains were the primary forms of transportation and before modern building codes and zoning laws existed. Many of the homes and buildings are grossly inefficient, poorly designed, too small, have limited or no parking, no room for expansion and they're in need of total foundation-up renovation or demolition. The cost of demolition, lead/asbestos abatement, hauling, landfill fees and hazardous waste disposal is astronomical. Taxes are very high in some cities as well in comparison to the suburbs since they don't have large vacant building lots or vacant tracts of acreage which promote new construction and growth of the tax base.

Shopping centers, homes, housing developments, senior citizen housing, vacation homes, malls, super centers, businesses, industrial parks, outdoor recreation and tourism moved to the suburbs or semi-rural areas since that's where the large building lots, or large tracts or undeveloped/underdeveloped acreage and farm land exists. The zoning laws are better, taxes are lower and there are more incentives and tax breaks in the suburbs as well due to growth in tax base.

People are pushing for less strict zoning laws in the suburbs, but small homes, subsidized housing, small lots, multi-family homes, traffic, noise, crime, crowded school systems, blighted properties, lack of parking, lack of room for expansion etc is why many people left the cities decades ago. Non owner-occupied multi-family homes really brought the property values in some neighborhoods down substantially. Lanlord/Tenant laws favor the tenants, not the owners, so many landlords have gotten out of the business or let their properties go downhill. I've converted many 2/3/4 family city homes to single family homes in order to sell them at a decent price. Once the tenants, their rugrats, their swing-sets, pools, barbecues, bikes, toys, junk and all their vehicles are gone, it really cleans up a neighborhood. Due to winter off-street and snow emergency parking, some of the city properties have vehicles parked in the front yards, back yards, side yards, on the sidewalks etc. Makes them look like hell.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..
As much as strip malls are an eye sore now they can just as easily form the nucleus of a farmer's market or distribution centre for the local economy tomorrow. They will have to be rhetrofitted to make up for their lack of insulation against heat and cold in the absence of air conditioning, but otherwise where is the difference between a souk, outdoor market and a mall? Only perception and the sense of community.

When the Muslims over-ran Cyprus they did not tear down the churches. They turned them into mosques. Form follows function. So it makes sense to use what you already have versus starting over from scratch. Who in urban America is not within walking distance of a strip mall?

[MarkJ]

Converting single family city homes to multi-family homes, adding additions, plus renting out rooms, basements, garages etc was how many people survived in the past. Of course many modern building/safety/fire/mechanical/local codes didn't exist and/or people could get away without using licensed contractors and working without plans, approval, permits, variances and multiple inspections.

When you swing a hammer in some highly populated areas these days, you'll have several neighbors calling building inspectors and code enforcement departments to check up on you. Some city residents will take pictures, video, measurements and call surveyors looking for ways to stop or slow down your building or home improvement projects. If you set one foot on their property, start too early, work too late or if sawdust lands on their crappy postage stamp sized lot, some of the city residents freak out.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'W')hen you swing a hammer in some highly populated areas these days, you'll have several neighbors calling building inspectors and code enforcement departments to check up on you. Some city residents will take pictures, video, measurements and call surveyors looking for ways to stop or slow down your building or home improvement projects. If you set one foot on their property, start too early, work too late or if sawdust lands on their crappy postage stamp sized lot, some of the city residents freak out.

[MarkJ]

Most of our local population lives in the suburbs or outskirts of the cities. These are the same places where my relatives have lived for over 200 years. We also provide water, food, professional, emergency and medical services for the cities. Many city residents travel to the suburbs to work, shop etc.

Modern building codes, zoning and deed restrictions prohibiting manufactured homes, small homes, small lots, subdivision and multi-family homes priced people in lower income brackets out of the suburbs.

If there was a housing crisis, it would make more sense to build on vacant tracts of acreage in the suburban areas. The roads, access to main roads, water/sewer piping, natural gas piping and electric is much better and much newer in many of the suburbs as well due to the the amount of new homes, money, tax revenue, property tax revenue, housing developments, businesses, super centers, industrial parks etc.

Many suburbs would suit future expansion better than the small poorly designed, blighted, overpopulated aging cities. Plus many areas are closer to work, shopping, farms, water, lakes, streams, rivers, fish, game, timber...

With homes so close together, or so many people living in a single building, fire or disruption to natural gas, water, sewer etc could displace many families at once. Having all your eggs in one basket isn't a good idea.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'M')odern building codes, zoning and deed restrictions prohibiting manufactured homes, small homes, small lots, subdivision and multi-family homes priced people in lower income brackets out of the suburbs.

[katkinkate]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..... Who in urban America is not within walking distance of a strip mall?

[MarkJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'M')odern building codes, zoning and deed restrictions prohibiting manufactured homes, small homes, small lots, subdivision and multi-family homes priced people in lower income brackets out of the suburbs.

[cube]

to: MarkJ

Lets put aside the zoning law debate for now.

It is my observation that population density is increasing right now, yes perfectly within the law.
here are some examples:
1) People losing their homes and moving in with relatives. There are 2 families living uner the same roof.
2) People with 2nd homes unable to sell them are renting them out. Renters sometimes will cram extra people in. Officially the rental agreement may state 3 people but once these renters move in they call up their friends and next thing you know, there's double the amount of people living there.
3) Some home owners will literally rent out rooms in their home. It may feel very weird having renters in your home but if you're short on cash what other options are there? BTW this is a common practice in cities with traditionally very expensive housing like San Francisco.
4) People living with their parents for a lot longer. Instead of moving out after college they move back in with their parents.

These ideas are not new, but the recent housing fiasco has only multiplied these practices. What used to be considered rare is actually quite common now. With the economy going downhill I expect population density to just keep on increasing as more and more people start sharing homes.
//
Now here comes the interesting part!
If density is increasing in 1 area then by default it must be decreasing in another area. Is there a pattern here? I think yes. I think population density is slowly shifting towards the urban core while the very far flung suburbs are being depopulated. The argument is simple enough. If you could only afford say $600 to pay for rent, that should be enough to rent a room in someone else's home that is "closer" to the urban core. You could be within 5 miles driving distance of your job, you don't have to be 50 miles away. Who wants to commute that far anyways? In fact in today's economy, a home that is (way out) 50 miles away from the urban core is practically un-rentable and un-sellable. There's a population shift towards the urban core right now IMHO.

[MarkJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou could be within 5 miles driving distance of your job, you don't have to be 50 miles away. Who wants to commute that far anyways? In fact in today's economy, a home that is (way out) 50 miles away from the urban core is practically un-rentable and un-sellable. There's a population shift towards the urban core right now IMHO.

[VMarcHart]

Why live within 5 miles driving distance to work, when we could live 2 miles bicycle distance or 1 mile walking distance?

Interesting rational that driving 5 miles isn't bad or too bad. It is, whether it is private vehicle, car pool, public transportation, etc.

My job requires some travel, and I fight it all the time. Not only it's a chore, but that's what phone, internet, faxes, etc are there for.