$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'B')ut Leo Drollas, who leads oil and gas market analysis and forecasting at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said there are plenty of supplies and no looming crisis. He said the report sounds like "scaremongering."
Drollas says production could still slow one day, but only because new reserves will be considered too difficult or expensive to extract.
"Oil could be left in the ground and we could move on to another fuel in the future, not because we're running out of oil but because, economically speaking, it is not worth extracting the oil," Drollas said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/
According to this CNN item, there is no looming oil crisis in oil future. Rather, we will simply "move on" to other fuel sources, and oil will become irrelvant.
The CGESL is a pretty serious outfit -- Any idea how they come up with this cheery scenario? I've read other items like this recently, poo-pooing any talk of Peak Oil, saying it's a myth. And they're coming from serious institutions too.
I'm new to this debate, and I'm just trying to understand how intelligent, informed sources can hold such diametrically opposed viewpoints.
PeakOil is You
No Worries -- Counterargument
Re: No Worries -- Counterargument
by allenwrench » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 09:12:01
How can people have such opposite views?
Not suck down every last drop of crude?
History shows otherwise.
When it comes down to the tough decisions it is always a case of...honor dies where the interest lies
As far as replacing crude...I think it is a case of 'if we could of, we would of' by now.
When they start to pave roads and make roofing shingles with corn instead of asphalt their argument may sound more reasonable.
When 18 wheelers, railroads and jets start running on something other than crude then my thinking may change on this topic. But even then, they have not address petrochemicals. We use crude not only for burning but for creation.
Even if we did find out how to burn water for energy, petrochemicals make up a large portion of crude's importance to mankind. Roughly 8% of every barrel of crude goes to petrochemical use. If we stopped burning crude this instant, we would still suck the wells dry, albeit not as quickly, just from petrochemical use.
Carving up a barrel of crude oil, we can see that barrel supplies many of our necessities of life.
Out of each barrel of crude we make the following products:
42% of each barrel of crude is used for Gasoline
21% Fuel oil - Diesel
8% Jet Fuel and Kerosene
8% Petrochemicals
Such as....
Solvents Bearing Grease Vaseline Ink Floor Wax Ball-point Pens Football Cleats Upholstery Sweaters Boats Insecticides Bicycle Tires Sports Car Bodies Nail Polish Fishing lures Dresses Tires Golf Bags Perfumes Cassettes Dishwasher Tool Boxes Shoe Polish Motorcycle Helmet Caulking Petroleum Jelly Transparent Tape CD Player Faucet Washers Antiseptics Clothesline Curtains Food Preservatives Basketballs Soap Vitamin Capsules Antihistamines Purses Shoes Dashboards Cortisone Deodorant Footballs Putty Dyes Panty Hose Refrigerant Percolators Life Jackets Rubbing Alcohol Linings Skis TV Cabinets Shag Rugs Electrician's Tape Tool Racks Car Battery Cases Epoxy Paint Mops Slacks Insect Repellent Oil Filters Umbrellas Yarn Fertilizers Hair Coloring Roofing Toilet Seats Fishing Rods Lipstick Denture Adhesive Linoleum Ice Cube Trays Synthetic Rubber Speakers Plastic Wood Electric Blankets Glycerin Tennis Rackets Rubber Cement Fishing Boots Dice Nylon Rope Candles Trash Bags House Paint Water Pipes Hand Lotion Roller Skates Surf Boards Shampoo Wheels Paint Rollers Shower Curtains Guitar Strings Luggage Aspirin Safety Glasses Antifreeze Football Helmets Awnings Eyeglasses Clothes Toothbrushes Ice Chests Footballs Combs CD's Paint Brushes Detergents Vaporizers Balloons Sun Glasses Tents Heart Valves Crayons Parachutes Telephones Enamel Pillows Dishes Cameras Anesthetics Artificial Turf Artificial limbs Bandages Dentures Model Cars Folding Doors Hair Curlers Cold cream Movie film Soft Contact lenses Drinking Cups Fan Belts Car Enamel Shaving Cream Ammonia Refrigerators Golf Balls Toothpaste
6% Propane
4% Heating Oil
3% Asphalt and Road oil
2% Petroleum coke
1% Lubricants
In addition, we will run out of natural gas, just as we deplete our crude supplies in the near future.
http://www.amazon.com/High-Noon-Natural ... 1931498539
"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan
-
allenwrench - Tar Sands
- Posts: 862
- Joined: Wed 23 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Re: No Worries -- Counterargument
by allenwrench » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 09:18:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'B')TW, all those little "out of the way" trips to retail will be eliminated shortly. Everyone I know is combining trips to save gas. Also lowering the thermostat, and driving more fuel-efficient vehicles.
We keep the thermostat set at 64 at night and keep the heat off during the day. House gets down into the low 50's in daytime. I usually turn on the heat around 9 PM and shut it down at 8 or 9 am.
To heat this way cost us $250 a month to heat a modern 2400 sq ft house. (including garage as it has some water pipes in its ceiling).
As the nat gas runs out prices for all heating methods will only keep climbing. Even the coal will run out someday. Winter '08 they said they had a coal crisis brewing in China.
-
allenwrench - Tar Sands
- Posts: 862
- Joined: Wed 23 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Re: No Worries -- Counterargument
by Ludi » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 09:22:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', '
')To heat this way cost us $250 a month to heat a modern 2400 sq ft house.
')To heat this way cost us $250 a month to heat a modern 2400 sq ft house.
OMG!
- Ludi
Re: No Worries -- Counterargument
by allenwrench » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 09:27:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')ated November 8, 2007
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', '[')url]http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '<')/div>The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.
The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', '[')url]http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '<')/div>The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.
The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year.
And yet . . .
The peak oil debate is like the bible...you can find ammunition to back almost any view.
But lets cut the BS and get down to brass tacks.
Either crude is a finite resource or not.
If it is a limitless resource we will never peak.
If it is a finite resource it can be used up and a peak will occur.
The only question is when?
The fact that 'we have to estimate' reserves or useful life of anything says that the item in question does not have an infinite supply or life span.
The top 3 users of crude are the US, China and Japan.
They consume almost 12 billion barrels of crude a year ( 11,987,330,000 barrels) .
Collectively the world uses 31 billion barrels of oil a year (31,015,410,000)
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_o ... onsumption
If the Peak Oil skeptics think the supply of fossil fuel is limitless and we can keep on burning billions upon billions of barrels a year of crude forever, then they are sadly mistaken.
It is an easy task to see how much oil is produced in the world. But finding the 'exact peak date' for world oil production is hard to pinpoint.
For one thing, some countries production are erratic and they are not transparent with their real production potential and discovery data.
Also oil production is not an exact science and still requires a little luck. We may find a lucky hit down the road that brings in a gusher to distort some of the figures.
No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years....but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate.
-
allenwrench - Tar Sands
- Posts: 862
- Joined: Wed 23 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
![[smilie=BangHead.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/BangHead.gif "BangHead")
Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
