We are all familiar with the imporatance of transportation to the viability of the global economy. I believe I've found an indicator that might be used to suggest caution. The indicator is the "Baltic Dry Index", which you can Google for further information.
At the link provided, you will notice a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, followed by a recovery after Fed intervention. Should the indicator go down and remain down, it would suggest a decline in trade, as has been discussed.
Comments?
LINK
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Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
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Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by Jack » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:08:41
![[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/new_popcornsmiley.gif "new_popcornsmiley")
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by hope_full » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:27:41
Color me ignorant, but I read a little bit about the Baltic Dry Index and I looked at those charts (on your link) and I'm not sure what I'm looking at. I'd be grateful for a little more information.
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by midnight-gamer » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:33:03
So you are watching to see if global shipping reduction acts as a tipping point for chaos? Has this years decline set a new precedent, or has sea trade swung up and down like this in the past?
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by DantesPeak » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:39:30
I am not expert on dry shipping, but reading some recent articles in Lloyd's List on shipping costs, energy costs are pushing up shipping costs.
It appears that the cost of bunker oil has gone up about 80% over the last year, making the operation of shippers much more costly.
I would say that raw shipping tonnage, if that statistic was available, would be a good amber alert indicator.
It appears that the cost of bunker oil has gone up about 80% over the last year, making the operation of shippers much more costly.
I would say that raw shipping tonnage, if that statistic was available, would be a good amber alert indicator.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by Twilight » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:41:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') woudl say that raw shipping tonnage, if that statistic was available, woudl be a good amber alert indicator.
After a considerable time. There is a thick slice of plastic consumer junk that can go without great harm at the demand end.
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by Jack » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:42:04
OK, hope_full, let's take a look at the details:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers supramax, panamax and capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers supramax, panamax and capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
Wikipedia
So I regard the index as a measure of global trade by ship. Or, more pointedly, a way of getting some idea of the amount of global trade occurring.
Premise:
As long as trade stays the same or increases, the global economic model remains valid. If trade declined significantly, and stayed down for any length of time, it might suggest a paradigm shift - a deep and fundamental change in the economic model.
Now, if global trade goes down, what happens? Recession or worse in the producing countries, certainly. But it also hints at problems in consuming countries, since they aren't buying. Therefore, one might suppose this would indicate the beginning of a global economic recession - or worse.
What happens to U.S. society in the event of a sharp and substantial economic decline? Perhaps less order and more crime. Perhaps worse.
I trust that helps?
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by emersonbiggins » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:46:42
I read the other day that the price of moving one 40' container from Shanghai to the East Coast has doubled to about $8,000 since about 2000.
I'm sure that has continued to go up since.
link
I'm sure that has continued to go up since.
link
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Re: Possible "amber alert" for societal breakdown
by DantesPeak » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 15:48:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') woudl say that raw shipping tonnage, if that statistic was available, woudl be a good amber alert indicator.
After a considerable time. There is a thick slice of plastic consumer junk that can go without great harm at the demand end.
There's a double meaning to what you said.
With a low embedded cost of energy obtained with cheap oil, like previously built plastic plants building products like plastic junk, that junk will be still be showing up in our stores for a year or so more.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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