[chuck6877]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') was hoping for a dip, so I can buy next winter's heating oil. How long should I wait? I am thinking around $110 a barrel is all it will go down. I could be wrong. It could go as low as $100, and then start back up again.

I am waiting to pounce on that low.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'T')he ranges we're talking and seeing are still above $110... which was "unthinkable" for some to happen in this decade... but PO is far from widely acknowledged... maybe when oil gets to $200; but then it will be too little too late.

[chuck6877]

OK, I've got it. This is a good compromise and where I now think the price of oil is going.
The 150 Day Moving Average.......which can be seen as the red line labeled as the 30 week moving average:
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p09874547526[/web]
The blue line is the 50 day moving average(10wma)
The red line is the 150 dma
The green line is the 200 dma

Oil got really overstretched above moving averages. Usually when this happens there is a crash back to the 200dma but things fundamentally are too bullish!! This 150dma is a good compromise.

Look how the 150 day moving average has been good support for the last year.

The 150dma is currently at $104.05. It's rising quickly so let's say I predict $110 will be the floor in a little over a month.

It will probably stay around $110 and base build long enough for the 200dma to hit it which would be in a little over 2 months.

This should be about when the $USD should be topping as well.....

Let's see if I can pick the bottom!

Chuck

[Peleg]

We all knew a retracement was coming after Memorial Day. What is shocking me is that now that prices are high enough that EVERYONE notices, rather than humbling themselves and saying let's find a way to get something done people are getting more snippy about it. It shows how powerless most American's actually feel about the future of their own democratic nation. The sad part is that hardening our hearts to the truth never makes things better unless the fundamentals change in the market and that is not going to happen. We are preparing to start the down slope and if we go crazy and overcorrect the price of oil will plunge but the necessary demand destruction will in effect be a recession. And then just when we start thinking prices have moderated and there is some extra we will overshoot on the up side again, and this is how we will snake our way down the other side.

Maybe I should take the cue of most of the hard core folks here and realize that America is just not going get the hint, not going to listen. The worse things get the more they will be looking for a scapegoat, the more they will hate the truth.

I'm tempted to simply keep quiet. It's like the closer to the cliff we are the more quickly they tell you you are crazy when you say the cliff is near.

If that is the way you want it be sure you make a wise choice.

[AirlinePilot]

Bloomberg has it up several dollars today already. 125.50 just now.

Usual reasons being given.

Oh well, so much for predicting the price!

[charliehelyes]

oil is now at $128.21 its gone up alot today

[Duende]

Oil is up, but don't worry everybody!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il's decline since May 22 has come largely on concerns about demand. Recent Energy Department data shows high prices have led consumers to cut their gasoline consumption. Meanwhile, many Asian nations are cutting fuel subsidies, effectively raising prices. Automakers are cutting production of gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks, and airlines are cutting capacity, both due to high fuel prices.

"There's a lot of empirical evidence that demand has plateaued," Sundstrom said.

"We may still get to $4 in the next couple of days, but I do think ... it's just a matter of time before the retail price starts to stall and maybe move lower," said AAA spokesman Geoff Sundstrom.

[morph]

well up $6 in only a few hours, is there any specific reason (eg bombing, bad reports) for this? because i can't see one.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('morph', 'w')ell up $6 in only a few hours, is there any specific reason (eg bombing, bad reports) for this? because i can't see one.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('morph', 'w')ell up $6 in only a few hours, is there any specific reason (eg bombing, bad reports) for this? because i can't see one.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ')Might see a correction back down a bit tomorrow.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'W')ithout a govt mandate, or sponsorship push, I can't see EV's being cost competitive for some time yet. If I do rough figures for a cheap used small car (30 to 40 mpg) vs any EV, even a homemade EV, the EV loses today. Relative lifetime cost has to come down vs ICE. Or, we can wait until fuel costs go high enough to make the EV competitive.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ')Might see a correction back down a bit tomorrow.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ')Might see a correction back down a bit tomorrow.

[patience]

yesplease,
"...nothing but hills", Yeah, that's my problem. In southern Indiana, we have up 200 feet, and down 200 feet, twice a mile sometimes. Lots of up and down 30 feet, 4 to the mile. If I did regeneration, it helps range, but batteries don't live long. It's the batteries that kill it. Actually, if I had 5 acres of pasture, the numbers favor an 800 lb. Standardbred buggy horse. With one acre, it's petroleum, or Shanks' Mare. Well, a bicycle works, but I'm 62 and don't like the hills. I own a machine shop, and I've built a lot of stuff, but even an electric bike will kill the batteries in a heartbeat on these hills.

[biofuel13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('morph', 'w')ell up $6 in only a few hours, is there any specific reason (eg bombing, bad reports) for this? because i can't see one.

[yesplease]

That ain't too bad patience, I was actually thinking of something more like what I see around here, down 3,000 ft/up 3,000ft w/ 1-5% grades. I'm pretty sure you could get away w/ an additional (~$1000 should allow for ~12hp extra during short climbs and acceleration) LiFePO4 pack to help level load on the lead acids when climbing the 200ft hills if really concerned about them. The lead acids would "see" the same overall discharge w/ the smaller pack buffering their output and only being used when needed. Solar Dave is doing the same on one of his Optima batteries so it won't bring down the others during his drive and kill his range. Ideally an elevation/route/speed profile should show ya how much of a secondary pack you would need and if it's cost effective. Around here, given the extreme 3000ft down/3000ft up, it has to be Li-whatever or nothing, so in order for it to be financially worthwhile gas needs to be ~$6+/gallon.

[DantesPeak]

I found another reason for the price run up at this late hour

Asia is sucking in most all of OPEC exports, leaving, well, not much for the US (so maybe the Saudi Aramco price increase for the US yesterday is just cover for a new policy ?)

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') found another reason for the price run up at this late hour

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') found another reason for the price run up at this late hour