[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '[')b]You would raise your grandchildren to be serfs?

To be honest, I am shocked and dismayed to read that from you.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '
')Feudalism is a natural evolution from a state of chaos and anarchy.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', ' ')Feudalism is a natural evolution from a state of chaos and anarchy.

[DomusAlbion]

Well Ludi, I'm just looking at the history of Western Europe after the complete collapse of the western Roman Empire. I'm quite sure I don't have the depth of your knowledge, though I'm willing to learn. I'll take a look at your link. Maybe it will cheer me up.

[Ludi]

I'm not saying people won't choose feudalism - certainly so many people here on po.com think it is inevitable - believing something is inevitable certainly helps it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people have no knowledge of another way to live, they will assume what they have learned is the truth and the only way things can be. That's why I keep linking to Jason Godesky's essays, because they present a different way of looking at things which is based on anthropology. I want people to at least be aware that ours is not the only culture possible, that we can actually choose how we want to live, and we can make choices based on successful models proven over time. We don't need to keep choosing the unsuccessful model (civilization).

[DomusAlbion]

I just briefly perused the website. I'll add it to my reading list. I may have questions for you later.

But let me ask you one quick question that has occured to me. Wouldn't this primitivism require very low population density? Wouldn't this require that there would have to be a massive (90% ??) die-off in the US to allow the tribe to have enough territory to sustain itself. And without some external control on population wouldn't population growth mandate other social formulations to again evolve and we'd be back to civilization.

How would/could the primitive state be maintained?

[tsakach]

"Formulating a Peak Oil Solution" implies that some type of process is followed to evaluate all possible sources of energy and demand on those sources. The output of the process would be a forecast on how much energy might be available from each energy source, along with projections of demand.

For oil, much debate has centered on forecasting how much oil will be available over a given timespan of about 50 years into the future. The following chart is an example of combining forecasts for different hypothesis on oil production to generate a forecast of the most probable outcome:


Since this is only one energy source, we would then need to produce separate forecasts for each energy source, along with forecasts of demand. The following chart can be viewed as a snapshot of energy production and demand forecasts:


This visualization is only a snapshot of a given moment of time for the combined forecasts. To visualize this model over a timespan, it might be animated such that the oil flow would be reduced as defined in the the peak oil forecast, while new sources of energy are increased. Different scenarios could be viewed for worst case/best case scenarios and so on.

It might actually be possible to actually generate this data from this forum if a process was defined for how a group of people could use the forum to gather data, evaluate it and produce a summary of the findings.

For example, a new forum could be created called "solutions" that contains discussion threads for each energy source and energy sink. The discussions would contain the data and debate surrounding the subject, much like what occurs already in this forum. A key differentiator would be the production of a summary of findings, that could be maintained in the the first post in each thread. The summary would contain forecast data and a brief description of the issues surrounding a given energy source or sink.

The data from these threads would be rolled up into a model of projected future energy production and use. Additional software tools would be necessary to process the data and generate models and visualizations of the model.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', ' ')What do you think?

[tsakach]

A group called the Millenium Institute has developed a model of U.S. Energy, called "Threshold 21".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his paper presents a significantly updated version of the T21 USA model that is designed to analyze
the major energy challenges and choices faced by the USA in the broader context of their relation to
the economy, social factors, and the environment, and with links to the rest of the world as necessary.
Analyzing these issues in a single, integrated framework is complex, but the T21 USA model builds on
the available expertise and detailed models in many sectors to achieve a highly transparent way of
presenting and visualizing the results of different assumptions and policy options, to promote
productive dialogue among different stakeholders, and to help design reasonable policies while
offering options to mitigate possible negative effects.
T21 does not present the ultimate, optimal solution. Rather, it allows users to examine the long term
plausible outcomes of different scenario options and assumptions to assist policy makers,
stakeholders, and the interested public make more informed decisions and reach agreements on how
to move ahead, instead of staying locked in disagreement and inaction.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')f people have no knowledge of another way to live, they will assume what they have learned is the truth and the only way things can be. That's why I keep linking to Jason Godesky's essays, because they present a different way of looking at things which is based on anthropology. I want people to at least be aware that ours is not the only culture possible, that we can actually choose how we want to live, and we can make choices based on successful models proven over time. We don't need to keep choosing the unsuccessful model (civilization).