by kpeavey » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 23:44:27
This will be a hard winter.
Heating a house with oil last winter ran 2.50-2.75/gallon, with more heating assistance needed than could be offerred. Read the other day fuel oil is over the $4 mark. Heating with oil will be unaffordable.
The fast/easy/low cost equipmentwise would be electric heaters to supplement the oil. A 75% rate hike will destroy some household incomes. The difference between oil and electric is that the oil is paid for in advance. I know that in Maine, the utilites can not disconnect you in the winter.
Those without the ability to heat with wood, install a woodstove, or buy firewood due to what I expect to be a sharp increase in demand, will have no alternative but to buy a couple of electric heaters. The bills will be astronomical. Me and 2 other guys heated an apartment with electric in Albany NY in 1991, $225/mo in the winter. It was some time ago. I remember the number specifically, I don't remember if that was just my share of the bill, could have been.
So the people will get crippling electric bills and not pay them. The utilities cut off their power, report to the credit bureau. There is also the potential of winter electric blackouts due to high demand. With oil heat being controlled by electric thermostats, nobody has power, everyone freezes. Do utilities encounter cash flow problems? I think it can easily become an issue. So the utilities buy some legislators, get the laws changed so power can be cut off in the middle of winter due to non-payment
The next fallback is leaving the gas stove on continuously to heat some part of the house. What will this do for the gas stocks and prices?
I think a cold winter will have a grand effect. Those with woodstoves will find many a neighbor knocking on their doors.
I can see a southern migration as a result of an expensive winter. Home values in the north crap out while the south sees a boon.
Once the pasty untanned northerners get hit with their first southern summer, they stay inside with the AC cranked. Then its deja vu all over again, only in reverse.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
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twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-George Yeats