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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Not the end of the world

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Not the end of the world

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 06:45:24

I would suggest that anyone who talks about the French Revolution should spend a few hours researching how and why it happened. It certainly was not caused by high expectations. And it was manipulated from above in response to an economic dispute between landowners and the crown over historical rights, rents and taxes and not a groundswell from the folk.

The parallels with post peak oil resource depletion are not very accurate either. If you want to speak about roasting the rich or those perceived as privileged then the Spanish Civil War may be a better analogy where the socialists mobbed the fascists who were made up of the ruling classes for the most part. But even then revenge killings were highly local and based upon local greivances and petty jealousies as much as ideology or economic rifts.

The civil war merely provided the cover much like in Rwanda. There you may be targeted if you have two acres of land and two cows by the guy that has one acre and only one cow because you married the girl he fancied. I really do not think the Gini-Coefficient has much to do with that kind of score settling. In the former Yugoslavia, and certainly in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, it had more to do with peasants having guns, and then showing those in the city who was in charge now. "We got the guns, we make the rules now."

If you are an accepted fixture in your local community, and are seen as providing jobs and supporting that community, then you might be far less likely to be targeted by the mob as the unwanted migrant workers in the shanty town down by the river.

The French Revolution fires up the imagination, but I just do not think that post peak oil resource depletion is going to be the great social leveller that many posters expect. At least not early stage depletion. Any more than The Great Depression lead to heads on pikes. Quite the opposite. Many made great fortunes after the crash. And if you wanted a paying job to support your family you did not want to be seen as one of "those socialists aggitating for a revolution." Just my opinion. Whose else, right?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Not the end of the world

Unread postby nobodypanic » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 16:40:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') would suggest that anyone who talks about the French Revolution should spend a few hours researching how and why it happened. It certainly was not caused by high expectations. And it was manipulated from above in response to an economic dispute between landowners and the crown over historical rights, rents and taxes and not a groundswell from the folk.


i didn't say it was a bottom-up ground swell: i said it was started by people who had their expectations dashed--in this case the bourgeoisie, the merchants, bankers, disaffected intellectuals, etc.

you'll see a similar pattern in most modern revolutions. i suggest you go research it. in the case of my country, i'd suggest the middle class would fill that role.

further, if you're going to tell me that a world in which the global economy is in a perpetual state of contraction won't see traumatic social upheaval (revolutions), then i 've got an SUV or two to sell you.

i know that some of you may not want to hear that revolutions can be reasonably expected to happen, since it likely flies in the face of some of your fantasies about being safe in the little peak-oil-proof castles you have been so diligently building, unlike the sheeple, but, hey, some people don't want to acknowledge peak oil either. reality bites.
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Re: Not the end of the world

Unread postby nobodypanic » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 17:16:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 's')ee the problem w/that scenario is that it ignores the history of modern revolutions. when people that have come to expect a growing standard are faced w/the opposite, you get things like the french revolution.

it's perfectly plausible and reasonable to predict that the wealthy and well off will be lined up against walls and roasted over spits when things get bad.
Rich people today have something that wasn't available during the French Revolution....airplanes. :-D

Another nifty invention that guarantees the safety of the rich is TV.
how so?
Television allows the rich to get a "feel" of what the public mood is while not having to share their woes. Rich people in historical times were quite often completely ignorant of what's happening on the street. There were no plans or preparations for escape. When revolutions did occur they were often caught totally surprised.

If we look at what's happening today a lot of rich people are getting scared.......rightfully so. They're not clueless. They're reallocating their money and buying that 2nd home in Dubai or Singapore or wherever the neat place is to hang out these days if you're an expatriate on the run.


you know i quite enjoyed your post on the psychology of limits and price--i thought it was very insightful. this one isn't anywhere near to that standard. :P

you can run, but you can't hide--at least not forever--being that we're talking about a global phenomenon, i.e., PO.

in any event, i am simply stating that your economic position is no guarantee of anything. i don't think that's anything unreasonable to say. simply put, there are no guarantees, no matter what steps you may take to 'prepare'. i think that's a pretty reasonable position.
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