[hermit]

After spending a bit of time here, I see that most anticipated PPO futures fall into one of two stock projections:

1) A gradual decline in quality of life which will leave cities uninhabitable/unsafe due to resource scarcity, accompanied by gradual dieoff.

2) A sudden decline in quality of life which will leave cities uninhabitable/unsafe due to resource scarcity, accompanied by sudden dieoff.

Granting the assumption that PO is a reality, and that Petrol costs will rise sharply in the future, what OTHER possible outcomes came we come up with?

Let's think outside the box - I'm interested in hearing other possible futures that could evolve. I have one in mind, but I'm going to wait to share it, as I'd like this thread to be about generating new ideas, and not limit it to discussing my own.

[MonteQuest]

Endless resource wars.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')ndless resource wars.

[kpeavey]

The crash is coming, that much has been reasoned years ago. The speed of the crash is still up in the air. The three most common scenarios I find:

Slow Crash. Conservation, renewable energies and demand destruction keep things moving, but in the end, we go out with a wimper.

Multiple Crash. While conservation and renewables are brought to bear rapidly, bottlenecks in the system present, resulting in sudden small crashes all the way to the bottom.

Fast Crash. TSHTF all at once. A combination of energy availability/price, economics, resource wars, climate change, disease, famine, pretty much the worst parts of the bible.

The speed of the crash must also be coordinated with the Timing of the crash:

Early. The interdependent nature of the global network and economies collapse under the strain of debt and prices.

Middle. We tough it out for a while, but it catches up with us.

Late. Human resourcefulness, technology, and changes in lifestyle keep things moving, albeit with difficulty, long after the peak is identified.

As a species we have exceeded the carrying capacity of this small blue planet. Mother Nature will do her job, as she always does to return balance. We are past the point where our actions could make a difference.

We are in the first stages of the Transition from our present day paradigm, fossil fuels/high grade ores/global economics, to the paradigm of the future, renewable energy/local resources/local trade. We know the past, we can predict to some degree the future AFTER the Transition, but the Transition can not be predicted with accuracy. It's a problem not unlike the Heisenberg Principle. The problem with predicting the Transition is simply too many variables. The money, cultures, people, governments, resources, capacity to adapt, technology, all will play a role. We can predict that we will move from point A to point B, but we don't know the road to be taken or the speed of the car.

I believe economics and the interdependent nature of modern trade will be a critical factor. The world system of trade of all goods is based on some sort of transfer of wealth. Value of goods is traded based on number and news. The way information is disseminated, you don't need an actual disaster to affect trading, you only need the threat of bad news to affect trading. Take the money out of the equation, things come to a stop real sudden like. This leads me to think a crash will begin early.

Interdependency leads to chain reactions and bottlenecks. One part of the system goes down, the dominoes start to tumble. We may be able to stop the falling for a time, this is the pervue of the politicians-they will have to do something, but strain on the remaining systems will start the fall again. I think the multiple crashes scenario makes the most sense.


There is still one more potential scenario, but I shall not speak of it.

[roccman]

500 MPH into a brick wall.

[SILENTTODD]

My late father use to have a favorite saying, "If wishes were horses, beggers would ride".

[cube]

Not everybody here believes you have to run out to the farm and grow potatos to survive.
(near term aka 50 years) I think it's perfectly possible to live in a "city" post PO.
Notice I specifically said "city" and not suburbia....BIG difference.

I have yet to find a public "consensus" on any topic on this site.

[korosten]

I guess I'm an "optimistic doomer" if that is possible .

I believe we will have an extremely difficult 20-40 years ahead of us, with the scenarios mentioned above (depending on the speed of the collapse). I think different countries will collapse at different speeds and in different ways, some may be affected sooner and others later.

In Europe, I see a future in small villages, and maybe small towns that are surrounded by farmland. I don't think large cities will make it due to the chaos/lack of food.

I believe that even though there will be a lot fewer humans, the ones that remain will be able to live a sustainable life using renewable energies, and that it will be a very good life.

I think the culture/thinking of the remaining people will be a lot different, and it will be a new culture based on this experience, where sustainable living is a core part. Maybe there will even be a new religion that will justify the new kind of life?

I think life will be simpler, but I still think technology will be important, but in a different/smarter way, using the resources in a more efficient way,and technology will be focused in areas where it is truly needed.

Chantal

[Micki]

Hard times until end of 2012 when the aliens land and reveal free energy technologies that so far has been surpressed by governments with vested interest in oil.
The '1 amero' coin is changed to have a picture of Nicholai Tesla.
It could happen...

[mos6507]

As you'll learn, everyone here is their own personal nostradamus.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A')s you'll learn, everyone here is their own personal nostradamus.

[kokoda]

What ... nobody thinks that we will be flying around in fusion powered hover cars?

[DavidFolks]

(With a tip of the hat to Heinlein, Niven, Sturgeon, et all)

The Chinese space program launches a series of rockets (fueled by hydrogen slush as per NASA space shuttle) that meet in orbit to deliver components of a huge solar array.

Turns out that while the middle east was pumping oil out to the west, they were pumping cash into research and development of renewable resources. They developed the solar array, the microwave transmission capacity, and prevailed upon the Chinese to supply the industrial base to manufacture orbital power generation and transmission stations.

The third world declares bankruptcy, and defaults on all notes. They return to subsistance farming, and after a generation or two of re-learning old skills, return to something like their old cultures and senses of community.

Travel becomes much more expensive, but advances in communication and telerobotics reduce the need to move actual people around. The moving of people and goods is mostly by mass transit... Busses, trains, solar and sail powered ships. Cars, for those who can afford them, are electric. Emergency vehicles are internal combustion deisel, using biofuels.

Industry becomes local again, with small companies working to supply local needs. Foreign trade goes back to small, easy to ship items and commodities that are region specific and expensive.

Europe and asia become the two major superpowers, as both have made significant strides towards renewables and sustainable production.

North america is relegated food production. Its vaunted military power wasn't a match for the combined disapproval of Europe and Asia, backed up by an orbital power platform that also doubles as an energy weapon. North americans dismantle their bloated military machine, and scavenge the resources to fuel the long climb back to a technological and information based economy, paying the same high price for renewable technologies that everyone else has, but paying it all at once instead of over decades.

United Earth forces man the satellites, and make sure that wars of aggression between states are quickly and decisively stamped out. New jobs in the renewable energy sector, space exploration, orbital production and processing fuel the next economic wave.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A')s you'll learn, everyone here is their own personal nostradamus.

[Kingcoal]

In the short term: the end of environmentalism. This is all part of the "classical" plateau in conventional PO theory when all stops are pulled. The 1975 movie "Three days of the Condor" was on last night and one of the great quotes from the movie is:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Higgins: It's simple economics. Today it's oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. Maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?
Joe Turner: Ask them?
Higgins: Not now - then! Ask 'em when they're running out. Ask 'em when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask 'em when their engines stop. Ask 'em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won't want us to ask 'em. They'll just want us to get it for 'em!

[skyemoor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'W')hat ... nobody thinks that we will be flying around in fusion powered hover cars?

[PeekOil]

It seems a lot of people are using very simplistic well worn models to project into the future. This is the sort of thing that brought us projections of flying cars and robots by 2000 by folks living in the 1960s.

I guess it comes down to the vast array of variables and the complexity of such a projection. For the above reasons, I think my projection is going to be highly unreliable and constantly subject to change. We may wake up one day to news of an oil discovery 10 times greater than all of Saudi. No likely but cannot be entirely ruled out. It would be an obvious game changer. Far less obvious and far less impacting ones will no doubt occur.

I think that oil will continue to rise for a while longer and put the US well and truely into recession. Demand destruction will pick up speed and new efficiencies will destroy demand further. Oil prices will plummet and all will be well with the world again.

But it won't last, this will be the ideal time to cash in, stock up and get ready. China will continue to grow and eat up that released oil and the US will emerge from it's recession. Supplies will start to get tight again due to increased demand and we will start to see the very first declines in total global production.

This will cause a lot of panic and major changes to society will start to happen. Massive moves to electric cars and PT together with switches to alternatives such as LNG and biodiesel will occur. Excessive biodiesel production will case massive food reduction and food costs will soar killing off a large part of the global population.

Oil production will continue to decline and after many years of hard times, production and costs of alternative transport will improve. Electric cars will be the norm and biodiesel will be used mostly in specialized areas. Oil will still be pumped but mostly for plastics, fertilisers, tar etc. It's use in transport will be almost non existent.

Mankind will continue to dominate the planet and economic growth will continue but driven by more sustainable economics. At some point after the dust has settled, some other crises will errupt and we'll go through yet more turmoil. This is part of mankinds development.

So I think the future is rosy, but the near future is rotten. We will get through it because we will adapt as needed (note we only ever adapt WHEN NEEDED). Basically we are going to be going through a major adjustment period and we need to be ready for this.

In the developed world, jobs will be lost, fortunes lost, people will starve/freeze, governments will topple, life will be tough but most will survive. Your chances of being one of the survivors are best if you are prepared.

In the developing world, m/billions will die from starvation, governments will be toppled and civil wars will be very common as will national wars. They will however emerge thanks to the natural survival skills of many in these countrys. They may revert to more traditional ways of life and it would be wise of the developed countrys to leave them to it.

I don't believe that any of the above is unrealistic, we are very creative and adaptable when our lives are on the line.

I plan to have food for the difficult time to help secure mine and my familys future during the change period. I don't know if we will even need it but it will be there in case. I do not see us slipping back to some iron age society, we have too much knowledge to allow that to happen.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeekOil', ' ')At some point after the dust has settled, some other crises will errupt and we'll go through yet more turmoil. This is part of mankinds development.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'M')y late father use to have a favorite saying, "If wishes were horses, beggers would ride".