[Ardalla]

Welcome to the boards .

From New_User:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost people here seem to agree that governments aren't going to do anything about the impending peak simply because there is no economic benefit.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would not speak for others, but I would say that governments aren't going to do anything because they are not convinced there is sufficient cause for alarm. They believe we have plenty of time.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')would not speak for others, but I would say that governments aren't going to do anything because they are not convinced there is sufficient cause for alarm. They believe we have plenty of time.

[Ardalla]

I think Simmons certainly believes in peak oil before 2010. I don't see any direct statement in the Cheney task force report where he speaks of peak oil by 2006. I think the Bush administration believes the oil that we need is out there, we just need to be able to access it. Of course they are planning for a possible interruption in supply, civil unrest etc. But seriously planning for peak oil? No.

There is a problem with credibility. So far we have gadflies like Simmons and Campbell trying to get the horse's attention. Lots of tail-swishing going on, but the horse is continuing to munch. We need a large hornet like AAPG or USGS to go after the horse's nose. Failing that, it will take a true energy shock to get a reaction. Even then there is no guarantee that peak oil will be acknowledged. It may be written off as just a temporary supply problem.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think Simmons certainly believes in peak oil before 2010. I don't see any direct statement in the Cheney task force report where he speaks of peak oil by 2006. I think the Bush administration believes the oil that we need is out there, we just need to be able to access it.

[new_user]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would not speak for others, but I would say that governments aren't going to do anything because they are not convinced there is sufficient cause for alarm. They believe we have plenty of time.

[MattSavinar]

The Bush Admin most certainly knows about Peak Oil. In addition to the evidence and links provided above, consider:

1. The CIA know about Peak Oil in the 1970's (See "Smoking Gun" on Museletter.com)

2. George Bush Senior was director of the CIA in the 1970's, VP in the 1980's, and the big P in the late 80's and early 90's.

Remeber, the job of the CIA is to protect Wall Street - America's financial engine. Oil is key for the engine to run. So the CIA knows about the scope of the crisis in great detail.

They may even persuse this forum to find out the degree to which the peasents have awoken.

Saudi Aramco, Haliburton, Lockhead Martin, Shell, Occidental Petroleum, GM, Ford, Defense Information Agency, visit my site on a regular basis.

I'm sure they do to this one also.

Again, not to find out information as they are already aware of all this stuff, but to figure out to what degree they need to perform crowd control.

Anybody see the program on Fox with Newt Gringrich about how "Yeah, there are oil problems, but we got it under control . . . "

Matt

[small_steps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')Anybody see the program on Fox with Newt Gringrich about how "Yeah, there are oil problems, but we got it under control . . . "

[Ardalla]

I have no doubt that the Bush Admin knows full well about peak oil. Indeed, if someone can produce any quotes from the admin that they think peak oil will happen before 2010, and they have a plan to deal with it, then I will be glad to change my opinion. There is big difference in Bush being AWARE of peak oil and actually believing it is imminent.

Can anyone quote the admin as believing the Saudis might not have the huge reserves they say they have? I haven't seen such a quote. I would love to see it. Even that would be some evidence that they are considering peak oil within the next few years.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.” “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”

[Ardalla]

Yes I've read that quote many times. I would say Cheney believes we will get the oil we need.

The reason I am saying this is because I prefer to believe that the USGS, DOA, Bush administration, major oil companies and virtually every government on the planet are NOT engaged in a conspiracy to suppress the truth of peak oil before 2010 and imminent collapse of the world economy. I think they are delusional Polyannas hoping for the best.

The basic problem is the lack of reliable data on world oil supply. The entities I mention above will likely assume the best until they are forced by the data to accept the truth. My best hope right now is that some reliable organization such as the AAPG will at least QUESTION the data. Someone needs to say in effect we cannot project a reliable oil supply for the future given the unreliabilty of our current database. Campbell and others ARE saying it. It's not enough. They are just being labelled as crazies. I don't expect AAPG or USGS to admit peak oil is imminent. If they would just say "We are no longer certain ... " that would be a step in the right direction.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would say Cheney believes we will get the oil we need.

[notacornucopian]

Ardalla, I have to disagree with you on the administration's knowledge of Peak Oil. There are plenty of oilmen in the administration and to think that all that has transpired over the last few years is due simply to incompetence/lack of vision is very difficult to believe.
On a related note, I have been trying to get through that James Baker Institute paper written back in April of 2001. So far, the most interesting thing I have discovered is how the administration has essentially ignored most of their recommendations. If you are well versed with the lack of an easily incorporated energy substitute for oil, and you read between the lines, it becomes apparent that the administration may have believed there was no choice but to go out and secure control of ME oilfileds. More on this later.....

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey may be Pollyannas, but I don't think they are delusional. At least, not all of them. Rather, they don't know what to do about it. Why panic people needlessly, when there's nothing they can do? I suspect a lot of people are like the band, playing on the deck of the Titanic as it sinks. I mean, why not? What else is there to do?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('new_user', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would not speak for others, but I would say that governments aren't going to do anything because they are not convinced there is sufficient cause for alarm. They believe we have plenty of time.

[Pops]

Matt, any board you post to is already well in the sights.

[MattSavinar]

Tell me about it.

Not to brag, but all the "biggies" come to my site regularly: Saudi Aramco, Lockhead Martin, Haliburton, Shell etc. . .

Something called the "Defense Information Agency" checks in daily also, but I don't who they are.

And then there are the visits from "Arpanet."

I suspect their thinking, "Oh f--k the peasents have awoken." I've been meaning to ask Aaron who visits PeakOil.com

Matt

[ExampleGiven]

There won't be 2 percent growth at $100 a barrel. As prices go up demand goes down. Demand for oil is probably inelastic at some point, but it seems oil prices could double or triple before that. Europe and Japan use half the per capita amount of oil as we do and they pay twice as much at the pump.

And as far as "fleet based solutions" not being feasible:
The US produced 12 million new cars last year. Seems we could make a dent.

I believe we as citizens have an obligation to work toward softening the blow of peak oil. I for one will not throw up my hands and say nothing can be done. Lobby, Vote, use less energy, change your lifestyle. Even if you are pessimist and believe we can not change the course of events: What have you got to lose ?

It aint over til it's over. How do you hire a Lobbyist anyway ?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omething called the "Defense Information Agency" checks in daily also, but I don't who they are.

[sheilach]

A while back I remember seeing a news bite on how our soldiers were being trained for urban warfare and I thought at the time the 'enemy' would be us.

Now that I have become aware of 'peak oil', it seems the government HAS been preparing for the decline in natural gas and oil and the civil unrest that will follow.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot to brag, but all the "biggies" come to my site regularly: Saudi Aramco, Lockhead Martin, Haliburton, Shell etc. . .