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Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby vetusfirma » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 04:37:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emeraldg40', 'I')m not sure, let me go poll my neighbors, you know, the ones flying the Mexican flag in the front yard and the ones that have the Mexican flag pasted to the rear window in their pick up truck.

Damn straight. If you're gonna fly a flag over some land, that land ought to be stolen fair and square off a dead Indian!
But seriously, we did steal quite a bit of land from the Mexicans. Maybe they're just getting even. :P
<<<< lives next door to Mexico

didn't we steal it from the spanish, or the french or the vikings, oh yea and the utes helped us with the tribes of the british and french.
and the russians up north in Alaska.

Hope I didn't leave anyone out, wouldn't want to offend.

Did you see the picture of the new lost tribe they found in the amazon. Shooting arrows at the helicopter. Thats the way it would still be here, stone axes and shamans.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Leanan » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 11:45:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kaj', 'S')o are there any serious calls or movements in the US for regional independence?

I don't know how serious they are. There's a movement among evangelical Christians to move to South Carolina and take over. (South Carolina because it's already religiously conservative, and as a small state, would be easier to take over.) The goal would be things like creationism rather than evolution in schools, the supposed "gay agenda" blocked, etc.

And there's a group that wants Vermont to secede from the Union. They're interesting because they are peak oil aware. It's one reason they want to pull out.

Then there's the "United States of Canada" and "Jesusland":
Image
It was meant satirically, in the aftermath of the 2004 election, but I think it reflects a real and deep schism. One that has not gone away. No matter who wins the upcoming election, I think half the country is going to be very bitter and unhappy.
(FWIW, Tainter says that ideological strife intensifies as a society approaches collapse.)
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 14:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'T')hats the way it would still be here, stone axes and shamans.

You're saying that's a bad thing, right? Have you actually read what Ludi's beliefs are?

http://anthropik.com/thirty/
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Nickel » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 15:05:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'T')hey will try, but none of them fight well, and we will prevail.
Just my thoughts.

Hmm. Maybe they can ask the Vietnamese.

Just my thoughts. :)
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Nickel » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 15:10:48

The United States isn't going to break up. First of all, the country has always been riven by different factions... it's the nature of democracy. Common ground is usually found and people find a modus vivendi and get on with things. That's true in most countries, and certainly of the United States. There are always people talking about getting out, but mostly what they mean is they're desperate to change the country in some way. Usually, such feelings grow and they get what they want from within. Secondly, everyone remembers the Civil War. No one would want a repeat of that, and it remains to be seen if and how a state or group of states could negotiate their way out of the US peacefully. Frankly, I think if the will were there, it could be done. But I really don't believe the will exists.

I just hope the US will change, not disintegrate.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Leanan » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:05:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's true in most countries...

Countries are like marriages. They fall apart all the time.

The sun finally set on the British Empire, and I think it will set on ours, as well. The only question is when.
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Homesteader » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:12:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', 'T')he United States isn't going to break up. First of all, the country has always been riven by different factions... it's the nature of democracy. Common ground is usually found and people find a modus vivendi and get on with things. That's true in most countries, and certainly of the United States. There are always people talking about getting out, but mostly what they mean is they're desperate to change the country in some way. Usually, such feelings grow and they get what they want from within. Secondly, everyone remembers the Civil War. No one would want a repeat of that, and it remains to be seen if and how a state or group of states could negotiate their way out of the US peacefully. Frankly, I think if the will were there, it could be done. But I really don't believe the will exists.
I just hope the US will change, not disintegrate.

It strikes me as very silly how people can be so absolutely sure how the future will turn out, historical lessons to the contrary.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Nickel » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:25:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's true in most countries...

Countries are like marriages. They fall apart all the time.
The sun finally set on the British Empire, and I think it will set on ours, as well. The only question is when.

Well, the Empire wasn't a country as such. Much of it was subject peoples who, given the chance, sooner or later were going to reassert their own natural sovereignty.

At best, the settlement colonies might have been thought of as "the country", but they were so far flung, with such different experiences of life based on geography and the nature of the peoples with whom they shared the land and the region, that it was more likely they'd establish their own nationalities than simply extend the existing one, and that's what happened. There was an attempt at the end of the 19th Century to establish an Imperial Parliament, but by then it was already too late and most of the dominions weren't interested. The patriotism fostered by two world wars gave the Empire a shot in the arm, but by 1950, it was really a thing of the past where the "white" dominions where concerned. I think if an effort to include the dominions in Parliament in Westminster had been made no later than about 1860, it's possible that the settlement colonies might be some form of extension of the United Kingdom today... but the UK failed to do that on the run-up to the American Revolution, and also in the aftermath. And so today, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and others are separate countries today.

But the US isn't like that. Like those countries, it's a flash-frozen nationality. We're talking about countries that were settled and established within a few generations. Regional differences that might have led to separate countries over centuries, as in Europe, didn't have time to emerge. So the US has a fellow-feeling within itself that was lost between, say, what's now Germany and what's now Austria. They have to overcome those things in Europe, whereas in the US, it's the feelings of shared nationality and history that would have to be overcome to destroy the place.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Leanan » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:36:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')uch of it was subject peoples who, given the chance, sooner or later were going to reassert their own natural sovereignty.

You mean like the Irish?

I think the US would likely dissolve eventually, even without peak oil. With peak oil, it's almost inevitable. Possibly with a period of 1984-type tyranny first. We simply won't have the energy to support such a large society.

Kunstler's "World Made By Hand" postulates a future where no one is sure the federal government still exists. I could see it turning out that way. In fact, I think he's kind of optimistic.
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby janser » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:43:02

How does the latino factor fall in this? There are a lot of spanish speaking living in America. Most are mexican but also other latino's. Some feel that the south-west belongs to mexico. Also many lationo's seem diffrent then the anglo americans. They still speak spanish and seem to have very little in common with the anglo americans. I have been to the southwest and there was like 2 languages it seems.

I am no expert, but how wil this devolep in the future? Is there a change the south-west wil become seperated from from the USA and join Mexico again? Will the south-west be America's kosovo like patt buchanan said once?

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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby dunewalker » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:43:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'K')unstler's "World Made By Hand" postulates a future where no one is sure the federal government still exists.

I'm not sure even now if the federal government still exists. The domestically useful divisions suffer from terminal "analysis paralysis" and the more powerful elements have been usurped by corporate entities. Not much visible "federalness" going on.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Nickel » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 16:52:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')uch of it was subject peoples who, given the chance, sooner or later were going to reassert their own natural sovereignty.

You mean like the Irish?

I suppose. I was thinking mostly of the nations that became subject to the imperium in the 18th and 19th centuries, primarily in Africa and Asia. Ireland might arguably have become accommodated to membership in the UK if Catholic Emancipation had had some real teeth, and earlier than it did. Even as things go, most of the people of Dublin were upset with the fomenters of the Easter Rebellion because of the interruption in social services it caused. Had the British merely sentenced them to prison for a few years, it's possible the Anglo-Irish War might not have occurred. Executing the rebels, though, underlined that the "us" and "them" aspect of Irish life in the UK was still alive and well, and led to the establishment of the Republic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') think the US would likely dissolve eventually, even without peak oil. With peak oil, it's almost inevitable. Possibly with a period of 1984-type tyranny first.

I would imagine that a 1984-style tyranny would entirely eliminate the possibility of a secessionist movement altogether, frankly.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'K')unstler's "World Made By Hand" postulates a future where no one is sure the federal government still exists. I could see it turning out that way. In fact, I think he's kind of optimistic.

Does anyone see this trend in evidence? Really? Tell the truth, folks... aren't you vastly more aware of the presence of the federal government in your lives than you were ten, twenty years ago?
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Leanan » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 17:11:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would imagine that a 1984-style tyranny would entirely eliminate the possibility of a secessionist movement altogether, frankly.

Or make it inevitable. Such a society would require a lot of energy to control the population. Eventually, they would not be able to continue.

But when I say I expect the U.S. to dissolve, I don't necessarily mean a secessionist movement, like the Civil War.

Instead, it may simply reach the point where there's no benefit to maintaining the country as it is. Nobody formally signing articles of secession, nobody sending armies to stop it. Just a lot of people who are more concerned with local events than national or global.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes anyone see this trend in evidence? Really? Tell the truth, folks... aren't you vastly more aware of the presence of the federal government in your lives than you were ten, twenty years ago?

Can't say I've noticed much difference either way. Then again, I wasn't very interested in politics 20 years ago.

In any case, current trends are not necessarily an indication of the future. Peak oil is a game changer. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't bother hanging out here.

(FWIW, the Kunstler novel has a nuclear attack on DC, which is why no one is sure what happened to the federal government.)
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 17:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'D')id you see the picture of the new lost tribe they found in the amazon. Shooting arrows at the helicopter. That's the way it would still be here, stone axes and shamans.

Yeah. I hope they aren't driven extinct.

http://www.survival-international.org/
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 17:20:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'Y')ou're saying that's a bad thing, right?

I think diversity is a better strategy for survival than putting all our cultural eggs in one basket.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 18:27:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'Y')ou're saying that's a bad thing, right?

I think diversity is a better strategy for survival than putting all our cultural eggs in one basket.

And, quite possibly, all of our genetic eggs.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Homesteader » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 18:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'K')unstler's "World Made By Hand" postulates a future where no one is sure the federal government still exists.

I'm not sure even now if the federal government still exists. The domestically useful divisions suffer from terminal "analysis paralysis" and the more powerful elements have been usurped by corporate entities. Not much visible "federalness" going on.

Jeez Dune,

That gave me one of those moments of clarity that immediately precedes going to change ones undergarments.

(Now wasn't that phrased nicely with no profanity?)
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 18:36:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emeraldg40', 'I')m not sure, let me go poll my neighbors, you know, the ones flying the Mexican flag in the front yard and the ones that have the Mexican flag pasted to the rear window in their pick up truck.

But seriously, we did steal quite a bit of land from the Mexicans. Maybe they're just getting even. :P

Yes, but at the time we did it there were very, very few Mexicans living there. And the ones that were are all dead now and from natural causes mostly. I'm really not sure how valid a property claim might be from people unrelated to those very few early Mexican settlers. Kinda weak. Kinda zero. Kinda 'give me a break'.

The only way to take it is one of the two the old fashioned ways. Populate it via invasion or seize it by force. Much cheaper to just move in and populate it. Especially when the host is paying you for (most of) your effort.
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 18:43:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'K')inda weak. Kinda zero. Kinda 'give me a break'.

Yeah, kinda like if some Lippan Apache, or some Comanche were to show up in my yard and say "Hey, git offn my land!"

Oh wait, they couldn't cuz they're extinct...
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Re: Why the feeling that the U.S. will break up in future?

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 01 Jun 2008, 18:48:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'K')inda weak. Kinda zero. Kinda 'give me a break'.

Yeah, kinda like if some Lippan Apache, or some Comanche were to show up in my yard and say "Hey, git offn my land!"
Oh wait, they couldn't cuz they're extinct...

Heh. And if any of those who aren't extinct told me that I would tell them my ancestors moved here in the 1920's. So get off MY land!!
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