PeakOil is You
Restaurant closure thread
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by TWilliam » Fri 30 May 2008, 14:25:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'A')s for employment, I honestly don't see any way out of this conundrum except by way of staggering increases in governmental spending (possibly all the way up to 80% of GDP), by way of massive government programs employing the millions that will be soon rendered jobless by the traditional economy. I know this would violate the traditional rules of economics, spending money you don't have, etc, but I sure do hope they try. I mean, we have absolutely nothing to lose.
Wasn't that the point of some of Roosevelt's New Deal policies? Lots of infrastructure expansion nationwide as I recall, employing millions of low- and medium-skilled people otherwise thrown out of work by the Depression. Rural Electrification Administration, Tennessee Valley Authority, etc.
Seems to me we'll be having a need for some new infrastructure projects soon; things like radical expansion of interstate rail, local light rail, widescale wind generation projects, more hydro maybe... stuff like that. Of course, this all assumes a national and political will developing to pursue such things...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
-
TWilliam - Expert
- Posts: 2591
- Joined: Sun 28 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by cube » Fri 30 May 2008, 14:44:01
I thought we're talking about restaurant closures here?
- cube
- Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3909
- Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by Jack » Fri 30 May 2008, 16:14:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')ow you sound more doomer-ish than me Jack.
I can't imagine society going so far down the slope they can't even afford an oven. I was thinking the near future aka within my lifetime.
I think a quick and dirty way to "predict" what a PO future will look like is to ask yourself this simple question. Imagine waking up tomorrow morning and you just got a 50% pay reduction. What would you do? ---> I don't know about you but I'd start cooking at home!
A PO world is where you have less money to spend. The average American could probably cut their food bill in half by cooking at home using simple ingredients. I think the reason why cooking at home almost NEVER gets brought up is because lets face it, most people on this forum are men. It's not a subject that gives men Adult content text deleted unlike say long haul trucking, lithium ion batteries, and the aerodynamic principles of electric cars.
I can't imagine society going so far down the slope they can't even afford an oven. I was thinking the near future aka within my lifetime.
I think a quick and dirty way to "predict" what a PO future will look like is to ask yourself this simple question. Imagine waking up tomorrow morning and you just got a 50% pay reduction. What would you do? ---> I don't know about you but I'd start cooking at home!
A PO world is where you have less money to spend. The average American could probably cut their food bill in half by cooking at home using simple ingredients. I think the reason why cooking at home almost NEVER gets brought up is because lets face it, most people on this forum are men. It's not a subject that gives men Adult content text deleted unlike say long haul trucking, lithium ion batteries, and the aerodynamic principles of electric cars.
I think you've got several good points - among them, that cooking and food preparation are rarely discussed. Yet, we can see evidence that cooking has been an important issue for at least 2,000 years - so people will probably care about it.
Much of the issue, I think, revolves around six variables. As I see it, they are:
1) Cost for food (economic issue)
2) Availability of food (transportation issue)
3) Income (economic issue)
4) Cost of cooking equipment (economic issue)
5) Cost of energy for the equipment (economic issue)
6) Availability of energy (Olduvai Gorge isse).
From a short term perspective, yes - cooking a simple meal at home will save money. The cooking equipment is already available, energy is available, and a variety of foods are easily available.
But let's take a hard look at these. First, a brief story....
Within the personal memory of living relatives, rural people in the U.S. cooked on a wood stove, fueled by wood they obtained from trees on their land. They baked bread, canned, and all the rest. Time - mid to late 1930's.
An orange was a once-per-year Christmas treat. One per child. Bananas were a rare delicacy. Yeast was expensive, so a sourdough starter was maintained. Meat was small game - squirrel, or a fish. On rare occasions, a hen was available. Cream was sold, skim milk was consumed. Eggs were sold.
Cube, depending on your age and the shape of the Olduvai curve, it is entirely possible you will face a world such as I have just described. I recognize there is great variance in views on the slope of the Olduvai curve; but, for the moment, let us suppose a steep one.
There are certain kinds of cooking equipment that are common - microwave ovens, ranges, ovens, and grills come to mind. The microwave oven is great - although the range of cuisine that can be prepared from scratch with only a microwave seems limited. If prepared foods - frozen foods, canned foods - were not available, the microwave might have limited application. If electricity were available.
Ranges seem to be made for gas or electricity. Propane ranges are available, but I think I'll treat them as gas for this discussion. Electricity faces the Olduvai issue. Will gas be dependable as natural gas supplies hit their own peak? Will we be able to afford much usage? Granted, if we want to fry an egg, it won't take much gas. But what if we want to saute some vegetables, or (especially) cook a stock?
Ovens, like ranges, use gas or electricity. Will they be dependable?
With gas appliances, the issue of seals on valves becomes important over time. What about 10 years out? What about 25? Can we take as a given that a gas range will be affordable or even sustainable? Electric ranges and ovens use heating elements; will they be affordable 25 years hence?
Grills are, likewise, gas or electric. Same issues.
We could, perhaps, try a wood stove. But the population is larger. I wonder how available wood will be for most.
Now...you speak of "simple" meals. OK...but where do the simple components come from? How expensive are they? Let's say we get a recently killed chicken. Sustainable, right? But - maybe quite expensive. So what do we do? I surely don't know much about the process, but as I understand it, we have to singe the bird to get off the pin feathers, butcher it, then cook it. Cooking will take energy (electricity or gas, recalling Olduvai theory). Then - we'll want to grab every calorie we can. So, we might try making a stock. But that will require a steady flow of electricity or gas over time.
What about canning? That's going to take a lot of energy.
What about bread? We need wheat - which is probably grown remotely. We need to get the wheat ground by a miller. That means we have to spend our meager store of cash. Not good.
So, perhaps we wind up eating black eyed peas, with the occasional bit of meat to use for flavor, and perhaps some cornbread from corn we grew and had milled. Greens come from the field. This does not sound like fun. Spices might by frightfully expensive, so our diet is likely to be painfully tedious.
What of the cities? Where we cannot grow many of our calories? To stay on topic, let's not go there.
That's the problem with cooking at home - long term. Fuel availability, combined with Olduvai theory. Could a group mitigate fuel problems by coordinating their cooking schedule and making maximum use of the BTUs generated? Perhaps. And maybe it would make economic sense to do so.
For the above reasons, I'm just not sure that our current model of "cooking at home" will last.
Your thoughts?
![[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/new_popcornsmiley.gif "new_popcornsmiley")
- Jack
- Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 4929
- Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by PrairieMule » Fri 30 May 2008, 16:53:28
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
-
PrairieMule - Expert
- Posts: 2927
- Joined: Fri 02 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: In a Nigerian compound surrounded by mighty dignataries
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by lawnchair » Fri 30 May 2008, 17:24:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')Ovens, like ranges, use gas or electricity. Will they be dependable?
')Ovens, like ranges, use gas or electricity. Will they be dependable?
It's not all of the time, obviously, but I've made hundreds of loaves of bread and numerous other meals in solar ovens. I live in Kansas (wheat) and, while I have ground flour by hand-crank mill, animal, water or wind-driven grain mills can scale pretty large. I haven't worked with sourdough instead of yeast much... probably should learn.
Not saying you aren't 110% correct. But, there are some alternatives running around.
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
-
lawnchair - Tar Sands
- Posts: 866
- Joined: Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread
by Jack » Fri 30 May 2008, 19:29:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', ' ')But, there are some alternatives running around.
There surely are some alternatives, as you illustrate well. Unfortunately, there aren't many as well prepared as you seem to be.
- Jack
- Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 4929
- Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
![[smilie=evil6.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/evil6.gif "evil6")
