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Restaurant closure thread

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Restaurant closure thread

Unread postby cube » Thu 29 May 2008, 01:22:11

I think restaurants falling on hard times should be talked about more.
It would be a breathe of fresh air instead of these repetitive discussions about airlines and long haul trucking.
A PO world is where people have less money to spend. That means less eating out!
Starbucks' profit falls 28%
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Re: Restaurant closures thread

Unread postby catbox » Thu 29 May 2008, 01:32:38

I never really eat at big chain restaurants, I mostly eat at small local places here in Eugene and they are usually packed.

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Re: Restaurant Closures Thread

Unread postby idiom » Thu 29 May 2008, 01:34:53

Do you guys have restaurants that are not franchises?

Franchises have larger overheads and slimmer margins (facts being pulled out of my rear).

Other types of dine-out places should do okay, especially as the last place standing boosts customers.

Drive-in places are going to need bicycle racks.
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Re: Restaurant closures thread

Unread postby joewp » Thu 29 May 2008, 01:36:02

I was in the local diner (this is New Jersey, you know) about a month ago, and I remarked to the waitress how sparse the crowd was for lunch. She said it had been terrible since the end of 2007, and not only is customer traffic down, people are ordering less food and the less expensive meals, severely impacting her tip income. I talked to the manager who I know well, and he said it was terrible and if it keeps up 6 or 9 more months he'd have to close.

In cases like this I try not to say the obvious, that it's not going to keep up but get worse. Instead of warnings and advice on how to deal with the situation, we get optimists on TV telling us how the "housing crisis" will be over early 2009 and everything will be back to normal. I think they should be hanged.
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Re: Restaurant Closures Thread

Unread postby Jack » Thu 29 May 2008, 01:39:44

A very interesting thread!

I'll follow it closely.

8)
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby cube » Thu 29 May 2008, 02:01:04

Image
Seattle coffee shops say "sexpresso" sells...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t Cowgirls Espresso in Tukwila, WA, for example, barista Candice Law (pictured) says that she and the other baristas dress to different themes for different days. "Everybody's excited to see you," she said, as evidenced by the look on this customer's face on seeing his coffee served by a girl in a corset and thigh-high boots. At other establishments, "hot-pink hot pants and tight white tank tops," lingerie and "fetish" outfits are just part of the dress code.


Peak oil coffee shops? :wink:
As higher energy prices shrink society's disposable income I think businesses will have to work harder to get people to part with their money.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 29 May 2008, 02:08:00

I knew someone who worked at that Chili's in Issaquah.

As for Pizza Hut, that is about the best news I've read in a while.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Thu 29 May 2008, 02:16:37

I see a future full of TacoBell and McDonalds 8O

fast food overhead is probably dirt cheep just like their food.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Thu 29 May 2008, 02:59:34

So, this is one of the things people will give up to pay for gas, along with staying at motels, and getting souvenirs when traveling.
Think they will have to give up buying new furniture as well.
g
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 29 May 2008, 05:33:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'I') see a future full of TacoBell and McDonalds 8O


In the future after the franchise wars, all restaurants will be Taco Bell.

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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby kpeavey » Thu 29 May 2008, 06:53:41

I work full time as a foreman for a refractory contractor. Busy as hell the first 6 months of the year, slow for the rest. I have a 2nd job for fun...I put on a bowtie on weekends and manage the dining room for an upscale restaurant downtown, about a mile away.

I've worked in restaurants for 20 years in every possible position from dishwasher to manager, so I know a little bit about what I'm talking about.

Franchises and chains have a considerably higher overhead than mom and pop shops due to the multiple layers of management, high investment cost due to location in prime commercial areas, and franchise fees. The big advantages are corporate support, name brand recognition, and simplification. They also have disadvantages. They are inflexible, creativity has no place, labor is unskilled.

I have seen the place I work lose considerable volume, especially weeknights. The place sees excellent weekend and banquet volume, so it is holding on. The servers are hurting, as the money is not there a few nights each week, and when the volume is there, additional help is brought in. Some of the servers have other jobs part time, some wait tables for the extra money for the family. Often, the staff of restaurants is more transient than other industries, so the loss of employment is not as critical to the economy. It is still critical to the employees. Being unskilled, and a job that can pay good money under the table, restaurants offer a fine opportunity to those without the ability to achieve income through more traditional means.

50% of new restaurant openings fail within the first year. 90% fail within the first 5 years. The most common causes are poor management and not enough money. Chains overcome these obstacles with corporate support. When the chains start closing, you can be sure the economy is in bad shape. For single owner restaurants, look at those which have been around for several years.

Dining out has been listed as a superfluous expense around the boards. As the economy tanks we will see more restaurant closings. To save money, people will carry lunch to work, have a BBQ at home, and if they do dine out, fewer drinks and order the pasta instead of prime rib. The restaurant industry for the most part makes its money with volume. Drop the volume, the money dries up, doors close.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby bl00k » Thu 29 May 2008, 06:56:41

Does anybody have the number of how much Americans eat their meals out?

And another question, isn't eating at home cheaper?

Haven't seen any restaurant closings around here but will keep me eye open.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby JJ » Thu 29 May 2008, 08:28:04

my next door neighbor quit driving crosscountry and one day he said come over to my house and look at this. (about six months ago). His wife had inherited a bunch of money, and he found a pizza resturaunt in a college town near here for sale, on the internet. (Pop. here is 5,000.....college town nearby 50,000.)....He said what do you think (he had already bought it). I thought rising wheat, cheese, energy, etc. prices but i said nothing. For the next several months he worked day and nite getting a nearby building ready. I can only imaging how much it cost, new wiring, plumbing, parking lot and stripping, on and on.....He opened about a month ago (we already have THREE pizza resturaunts in town). As near as I can tell, he's always packed. We've eaten there twice to be polite, but its 40.00 for two adults and two children, and can't afford it anymore. He's lost about 75 pounds, he looks really bad. I wonder how many pizzas he's made?
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby IgnoranceIsBliss » Thu 29 May 2008, 09:37:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'm')y next door neighbor quit driving crosscountry and one day he said come over to my house and look at this. (about six months ago). His wife had inherited a bunch of money, and he found a pizza resturaunt in a college town near here for sale, on the internet. (Pop. here is 5,000.....college town nearby 50,000.)....He said what do you think (he had already bought it). I thought rising wheat, cheese, energy, etc. prices but i said nothing. For the next several months he worked day and nite getting a nearby building ready. I can only imaging how much it cost, new wiring, plumbing, parking lot and stripping, on and on.....He opened about a month ago (we already have THREE pizza resturaunts in town). As near as I can tell, he's always packed. We've eaten there twice to be polite, but its 40.00 for two adults and two children, and can't afford it anymore. He's lost about 75 pounds, he looks really bad. I wonder how many pizzas he's made?


My husband worked on and off at pizza restaurants since he was 13 years old. The last time was 4 years ago when he took a second job under the table as a pizza maker to pay off credit card debt. It was hell, but he paid off the whole $10,000 that year. Owning a pizza place is just about the worst job you could get. It's difficult to find anyone decent to work for you (the place mentioned above ended up getting an illegal mexican) and the hours are just about 24/7. You end up working for about $2 an hour. I don't see how your neighbor's place can stay open for much longer with those prices. One of our neighbors closed his small pizza place last summer.

About the restaurant market in my area - A new Chili's just opened about 20 minutes from here in a big new shopping center with Target, Home Depot, Office Max, Pet Smart, etc.
Starbucks is opening a location inside one of our local grocery stores. I've noticed a few restaurant closures (small places), but most of them have a sign saying they are re-opening soon under new management. Maybe people are desperate to make it work because they feel they can't find any other job?

Otherwise, I have noticed that we have a LOT of empty retail space in shopping centers all around town. This has been going on for about a year now. These are nice centers with big anchor stores (Publix grocery, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, etc). The Publix plaza has about 6 empty stores right now, some small and some pretty big. I sure would hate to be a shopping center owner right about now and going forward!
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 29 May 2008, 10:00:46

Old News.............

They have really good food at a moderate price.

Baker's Square owner files Chap. 11, will close 56 restaurants

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he parent company of the Village Inn and Bakers Square restaurant chains filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday.

Vicorp Restaurants Inc. of Denver and its parent company, VI Acquisition Corp., said the filings in Delaware are intended to allow time to restructure its debt obligations.

CEO Ken Keymer said the bankruptcy petitions "were both prudent and necessary. Although we have already taken many steps to address the challenges we face, these steps were not enough to allow us to address our substantial debt obligations."

Vicorp was founded in 1958.

The company said the rising cost of food and the economic downturn have hurt its business. Vicorp also has outstanding loans of $37.7 million, and owes $15 million to suppliers and other vendors.


http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/s ... ily50.html
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 29 May 2008, 10:06:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')mpty retail space in shopping centers


Good thread, Drifter.

Anyway, in my observation, the people that lease out these shopping center/strip shop type places have not yet faced up to the reality that they have a big problem. The rents on these places are too high for your average pizza flipper to make money in that amount of space.

Right now, retail space in my area is going for as much as $20 per square foot per year, which for a 1000 square foot pizza place is $55 per day. An 8000 watt pizza oven costs about $50 per day to run. All this stuff adds up. The link below has some dated discussion of how to put together a business plan for this activity.

At some point, there will be a purge in the system and things will correct themselves. Rents will have to come down.

The same thing goes with Karate studios, dry cleaners, nail places, and other business that we have grown to know over the past few years of suburban sprawl.


Pizza Place Business Plan
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby manu » Thu 29 May 2008, 10:50:41

Looks like the lemmings will have to learn to eat at home. I hope some of them can cook. Or, just as there are car pools, maybe they can start some cook pools. Some will get mad and rant and rave, those will be the first ones to go to the camps. There they will get RMM's. Ready made meals. Most were ready during the Vietnam War. Eating out will mean, dumpster diving.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby Denny » Thu 29 May 2008, 11:07:58

We saw restaurants working on part time hours in Alberta recently. But, because business is too good! They can't hang on to help, every restaurant is advertising for help. Some coffee shops are paying $15 an hour for workers!

Restaurants can't afford to to pay such big wages through slow periods, so they shut down for two or three hours each day.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 29 May 2008, 11:33:38

Good thread.

The only closures are here are the Hardees that have gone out of business across town. I think there is one left. These closed up over the past few years, so its nothing new. Other then that... A LOT of new openings, especially Mexican places. I can't see how they stay open. We already have a McD's, Subways, BKs, Culvers, DQ's, Outback, TGI, Olive Garden, etc...all with deep pockets unlike the local places that have opened recently. They will be doomed.

Plenty of retail space available. I just noticed a sign yesterday on a fancy new building that houses a dental office (about the only thing that occupies these places). I can't believe our mall is still open. That will go under wants Sears/JCPenny/Marshall Fields close up shop. Christmas next year will be HORRIBLE.

Anyone starting a business right now better think long and hard.
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Re: Restaurant Closures and Current Situation Thread

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 29 May 2008, 11:40:15

The Olive Garden has turned into an expensive place to dine.

Two thumbs down for that over-priced noodle joint.
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