by max_in_wa » Mon 26 May 2008, 20:20:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'T')oo late to just reduce consumption?
Yes, I think it is. While energy saving may put off the inevitable for a bit longer in some areas, there are just too many people for the resources that are left.
Someone, and by that I mean a Lot of someones, are going to have to go.
I wholeheartedly agree that we will be facing negative population growth one way or another. I tend to think however that there is enough time to go that route by choice rather than force of nature (part of the reason I have intentionally chosen to be child-free).
On a different note, when people mention a "bug out" place, the vision I have is someplace very remote and secret, perhaps so remote that hopping on the bicycle and riding to town isn't actually an option. I mean, if the world became so bad you had to hide in the hills, the chances of making it to town and back on your bike would be about as remote as your cabin. Maybe I have the wrong vision of what people are using for the term "bug out" place.
In my mind, even having the conveniences of 1825 would take a monumental community effort. Nobody can really survive in any but the barest sense of the word as mountain man.
The following is an example of how impossibly hard it would be to live alone:
I've mentioned my pottery studio -- I should mention the kiln too. It's a 1500 year old design, one of the first high temperature kilns. For it's time, it was high tech like a mars rover is today. So high-tech that Japan captured Korean artisans in pottery wars to bring the technology back to Japan.
Building the kiln took 2500 high temperature bricks at 9 lbs each (my kiln is very small for this type by the way -- the minimum size to get to 2375 F). Bricks are easy enough to make and given the materials, I could make all the bricks I need. However to make this many bricks would take 22,500 pounds of clay. The bricks I used were made at a place with appropriate clay for high temperature bricks maybe 100 miles or so from here. No one person, no matter how strong, is moving 11 tons of material 100 miles alone. To move that much material is a major undertaking that requires some degree of social structure and cooperation. You need people to raise horses, people build carts, people to mine ore and smelt iron to build the carts, people to cut firewood to run the smelter, carts to haul that wood, people to drive the carts, people to dig the clay, and so on.
To fire the kiln takes four cords of wood. I imagine many "bug out" shacks are equipped with chainsaws and other tools. Once the gas is gone, these are good for nothing but ballast. I usually have wood delivered to me cut and split. I then split it by hand into even smaller pieces. A few times, I've gone out and cut my own (with a truck and chainsaw). It really isn't realistic to think one person can cut, carry, and split four cords of wood alone -- it would take forever to push a wheelbarrow 10 miles up into the hills, cut wood by hand, and push it home. A person would be lucky to get a wheelbarrow load per day, and have to travel farther and farther because of deforestation.
To achieve the high temperature necessary for durable dishes, storage jars, cooking vessels, and to get there takes a stoking pattern that takes an armload of wood every 7-10 minutes, 24 hours/day for 4-5 days. I've stayed awake so long I've had audio and visual hallucinations from the sleep deprivation, but I've never stayed awake for 4 days straight. It's physically impossible.
And on the topic of storage jars -- what kind of food preservation techniques are going to work? Canning is nice but what will you do when the sealing lids are permanently out of stock? Dried food is nice, but what does a person who lives in a wet area do? Frozen food? As long as there is electricity and a functioning freezer.
Anyway, do some thought experiments and it becomes plain that going it totally alone isn't actually feasible. Any long term survival will require community.
Perhaps I misunderstood what people mean by a "bug out" place, but if this somewhere to survive in a case of total breakdown, then you are implicitly hoping for a restoration of order within a relatively short time. You could store the same MREs in the extra bedroom of your apartment, and live fine while the hungry hordes roam the countryside in search of tasty morsels -- and no, you won't ever have enough cartridges for the roving bandits.